Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Regional growth will roughly quadruple from 2023 in 2024: Private spending, industrial activity and exports should all improve from 2023. That said, softer investment growth and weak EU activity for most of the year will cap the expansion. Heavier-than-expected damage from Storm Boris is a downside risk, while stronger-than-anticipated EU demand is an upside risk.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
Regional inflation eased from July’s six-month high in August, despite an uptick in Poland. In 2024, inflation will fall from both 2023 levels and its prior 10-year average of 3.9% on previous monetary policy tightening in the region. Supply-chain shocks due to Storm Boris and weaker-than-anticipated regional currencies are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2023.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.0 | -3.3 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 0.7 |
| 3.6 | -3.6 | 6.3 | 4.5 | -0.6 | |
| 8.8 | -3.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 9.0 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 1.6 | -4.7 | 11.0 | 5.6 | -2.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.6 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -1.0 | -6.8 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 43.0 | 53.7 | 52.5 | 49.8 | 49.8 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.7 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.25 | 0.27 | 1.65 | 6.38 | 6.24 |