Hungarian Parliament building

Central & Eastern Europe Economic Forecast

Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook

Growth in CEE will strengthen sharply in 2024 from last year, buoyed by rebounds in private spending and industrial activity. However, the rise will be weaker than the prior 10-year average of 3.2%, as elevated interest rates for most of the year will stifle investment. Geopolitical conflict poses a downside risk, while stronger-than-expected EU activity is an upside risk.

Central & Eastern Europe Inflation

CEE inflation fell in May from the prior month, as price growth softened in all economies, barring Hungary and Poland. Regional inflation will decline sharply from last year’s level in 2024 and hover near its prior 10-year average on the delayed impact of interest rate hikes. Unexpected spikes in commodity prices and premature monetary policy easing are upside risks.

This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2023.

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) 4.0 -3.4 6.5 4.3 0.6
3.6 -3.7 6.3 4.7 -0.4
7.9 -3.0 3.5 3.8 8.3
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.6 -4.6 11.0 5.5 -2.7
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.6 5.8 5.3 4.8 4.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.0 -6.9 -4.1 -3.7 -4.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 43.1 53.8 52.7 49.9 50.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.7 2.6 4.4 14.3 11.2
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 1.36 0.37 1.76 6.48 6.34

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