Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
The CEE economy will grow at a markedly softer pace this year compared to 2022. Depleted savings amid still-high inflation will hit consumer spending and—together with high interest rates—investment activity. Additionally, a downbeat global environment will hurt exports and industrial output. Commodity prices and the evolution of the war in Ukraine are factors to monitor.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
Regional inflation fell to 10.2% in July from 11.2% in June as price pressures softened throughout the region—especially in the Baltics. Inflation should continue its downtrend ahead, but robust nominal wage growth and pass-through effects will keep it above central bank targets. The evolutions of regional currencies and commodity prices are key factors to watch.
|Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)||4.7||3.9||-3.4||6.4||4.1|
|Private Consumption (ann. var. %)||4.8||3.5||-3.8||6.4||3.8|
|Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)||9.3||7.8||-3.1||2.4||4.2|
|Industrial Production (ann. var. %)||4.5||1.9||-4.7||11.2||5.2|
|Unemployment (% of active population, aop)||5.1||4.6||5.9||5.3||4.8|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-0.5||-1.0||-6.9||-4.1||-3.8|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||45.2||43.1||53.9||52.8||49.8|
|Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)||2.5||2.7||2.6||4.4||14.3|
|Refinancing Rate (%, eop)||1.67||1.72||0.47||2.23||-|
|Exchange Rate (BYN per USD, eop)||35.38||37.05||35.72||39.22||43.29|