Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
CEE growth will shift to a higher gear in 2024 compared to 2023 thanks to rebounds in private spending and industrial output. That said, the rise will fall short of the prior 10-year average of 3.2%, as tight monetary conditions for most of the year will cap investment. Geopolitical strife is a downside risk, while stronger-than-expected EU activity is an upside risk.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
CEE inflation fell on average in June from the prior month, despite upticks in the Baltics, Bulgaria and Poland. Regional inflation will fall notably from last year’s level in 2024 and cool from its prior 10-year average on tight monetary policy stances in the region. Unexpected spikes in commodity prices and weaker-than-expected regional currencies are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2023.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.0 | -3.4 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 0.6 |
| 3.6 | -3.7 | 6.3 | 4.7 | -0.4 | |
| 7.9 | -3.0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 8.3 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 1.6 | -4.7 | 11.0 | 5.6 | -2.6 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.6 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -1.0 | -6.9 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 43.0 | 53.7 | 52.5 | 49.7 | 49.9 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.7 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.36 | 0.37 | 1.76 | 6.48 | 6.34 |