Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
The CEE economy will grow at a markedly softer pace this year compared to 2022. Depleted savings amid still-high inflation will hit consumer spending and—together with high interest rates—investment activity. Additionally, a downbeat global environment will hurt exports and industrial output. Commodity prices and the evolution of the war in Ukraine are factors to monitor.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
Regional inflation fell to 10.2% in July from 11.2% in June as price pressures softened throughout the region—especially in the Baltics. Inflation should continue its downtrend ahead, but robust nominal wage growth and pass-through effects will keep it above central bank targets. The evolutions of regional currencies and commodity prices are key factors to watch.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2022.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.7 | 3.9 | -3.4 | 6.4 | 4.1 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 4.8 | 3.5 | -3.8 | 6.4 | 3.8 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 9.3 | 7.8 | -3.1 | 2.4 | 4.2 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 4.5 | 1.9 | -4.7 | 11.2 | 5.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.1 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.5 | -1.0 | -6.9 | -4.1 | -3.8 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 45.2 | 43.1 | 53.9 | 52.8 | 49.8 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 14.3 |
| Refinancing Rate (%, eop) | 1.67 | 1.72 | 0.47 | 2.23 | - |
| Exchange Rate (BYN per USD, eop) | 35.38 | 37.05 | 35.72 | 39.22 | 43.29 |