Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
GDP growth in CEE will strengthen from 2024’s level in 2025. EU funds disbursements, interest rate cuts and rising EU demand should fuel rebounds in fixed investment, industrial activity and exports. That said, public and private spending will lose steam, capping the improvement. Weaker EU growth due to a looming trade war with the U.S. is a key downside risk.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
In January, CEE inflation rose further and remained at a 13-month high on stronger price pressures in all countries bar the Czech Republic and Romania. Inflation should tick up from 2024’s level in 2025 on stronger GDP growth, weaker currencies in some countries and lower interest rates across the region. Retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.3 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.5 | 6.4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 3.6 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -2.6 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 8.5 | -1.2 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -4.6 | 11.1 | 5.5 | -2.4 | -0.6 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.8 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 53.5 | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.8 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.6 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 0.26 | 1.65 | 6.38 | 6.24 | 5.13 |