Skyline in Lebanon

Lebanon Economic Forecast

Lebanon Economic Outlook

The economy appeared to stabilize in Q1–Q3, buoyed by strong remittances and tourism inflows, and reduced private sector debt. The PMI survey of private businesses improved through September compared to the 2022 average, while visitor arrivals were up 21% year on year in Q1–Q3. However, activity was held back by a depressed real-estate sector, triple-digit inflation, banking insolvency, weak government spending, a lack of public services, and political gridlock—the country has been without a president for over a year. Turning to Q4, economic conditions have deteriorated on fears that Lebanon could be drawn into the Israel-Hamas war, given the presence of Hezbollah—a paramilitary group and Hamas ally—in southern Lebanon. In October, visitor arrivals were down over a third month on month, and the restaurant sector has reportedly seen an up to 80% drop in business due to the war.

Lebanon Inflation

Inflation rose to 215% in October from 209% in September. Lebanon will have one of the highest inflation rates globally in 2024, though inflation should ease from 2023 on the fading impact of past currency devaluations and black-market lira depreciation. Further devaluations and informal dollarization are upside risks, and parallel-market FX volatility is a two-sided risk.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Lebanon from 2012 to 2021.

Lebanon Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5
GDP (USD bn) 54.9 51.6 31.7 23.1 -
GDP per capita (USD) 9,226 8,925 5,600 4,136 -
GDP (LBP tn) 82.8 80.2 117.0 271.9 -
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 3.5 -3.1 45.8 132.5 -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -1.9 -6.9 -21.4 -7.0 -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -2.5 -2.4 -14.0 2.1 -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 5.0 2.8 -53.7 -76.0 -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 8.4 -45.5 -53.0 -67.6 -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -4.7 -0.9 -53.7 13.1 -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.3 -9.5 -46.0 -12.2 -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.7 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -11.4 -11.0 -3.5 0.8 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 155 172 151 350 -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) -3.0 -17.4 6.3 17.0 47.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 6.1 2.9 84.9 154.8 171.2
Repo Rate (%, eop) 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) 1,507 1,513 1,514 1,511 1,519
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -13.4 -11.1 -2.8 -3.4 -6.5
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -24.3 -21.5 -8.8 -14.7 -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -14.9 -13.5 -6.6 -8.3 -13.7
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 3.5 4.5 3.8 4.3 4.4
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 18.5 18.0 10.4 12.6 18.0
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -5.7 28.1 -15.8 12.6 1.6
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 1.3 -2.5 -42.2 21.5 42.7
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2.7 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.5
International Reserves (USD bn) 40.6 38.2 25.0 18.5 15.8
International Reserves (months of imports) 26.4 25.5 28.8 17.5 10.5
External Debt (USD bn) 79.7 73.9 68.9 66.9 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 145 143 217 289 -

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