Skyline in Lebanon

Lebanon Economic Forecast

Lebanon Economic Outlook

The economy appears to be gradually recovering according to the latest data, with the private sector PMI reflecting the strongest improvement in private-sector operating conditions since June 2013 in July. Recovering tourism and trade are the key drivers: Visitor arrivals rose year on year by roughly a quarter in H1, while container activity in the Port of Beirut increased 14% in annual terms through May. However, falling construction activity, triple-digit inflation, a dysfunctional banking system, the government’s limited spending capacity and political paralysis continue to hold back the economic rebound. In August, several Gulf states, Germany and the UK advised their citizens against travelling to Lebanon or parts of the country following violence in a Palestinian refugee camp, which is likely to weigh on tourism in H2.

Lebanon Inflation

Inflation fell to 252% in July from 254% in June. Inflation will be by far the highest in the region this year, due to past currency devaluations, the elimination of fuel subsidies late last year and the weak black-market lira. Further devaluations and informal dollarization are upside risks, while the volatile parallel-market FX rate is a risk in both directions.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Lebanon from 2012 to 2021.

Lebanon Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5
GDP (USD bn) 54.9 51.6 31.7 23.1 -
GDP per capita (USD) 9,226 8,925 5,600 4,136 -
GDP (LBP tn) 82.8 80.2 117.0 271.9 -
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 3.5 -3.1 45.8 132.5 -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -1.9 -6.9 -21.4 -7.0 -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -2.5 -2.4 -14.0 2.1 -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 5.0 2.8 -53.7 -76.0 -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 8.4 -45.5 -53.0 -67.6 -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -4.7 -0.9 -53.7 13.1 -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.3 -9.5 -46.0 -12.2 -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.7 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -11.4 -11.0 -3.5 0.8 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 155 172 151 - -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) -3.0 -17.4 6.3 17.0 47.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 6.1 2.9 84.9 154.8 171.2
Repo Rate (%, eop) 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) 1,507 1,513 1,514 1,511 1,519
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -13.4 -11.1 -2.8 -3.4 -6.9
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -24.3 -21.5 -8.8 -14.7 -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -14.9 -13.5 -6.6 -8.3 -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 3.5 4.5 3.8 4.3 -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 18.5 18.0 10.4 12.6 -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -5.7 28.1 -15.8 12.6 -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 1.3 -2.5 -42.2 21.5 -
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2.7 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.5
International Reserves (USD bn) 40.6 38.2 25.0 18.5 15.8
International Reserves (months of imports) 26.4 25.5 28.8 17.5 -
External Debt (USD bn) 79.7 73.9 68.9 66.9 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 145 143 217 289 -

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