Palm trees and buildings in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia Economic Forecast

Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook

GDP growth slowed year on year and contracted quarter on quarter in Q1. The slowdown was driven by the oil sector. Crude output fell, largely due to lower OPEC+ quotas. The non-oil sector was more robust, with growth easing slightly year on year and rising slightly quarter on quarter. The non-oil sector likely benefitted from low inflation and government spending on diversification projects. Turning to Q2, the non-oil sector PMI rose in April to the second-highest print in nearly eight years, boosted by tourist arrivals and infrastructure projects. Less positively, crude output fell 0.43 million barrels per day (mbpd) month on month—around 4%—in May as the quota cut agreed to the month prior came into force. Crude output will fall further in July and onward after the government announced in early June that it would unilaterally cut output by 1 mbpd.

Saudi Arabia Inflation

Inflation was stable at 2.7% in April. The government’s fuel price cap continues to constrain price pressures, with inflation seen remaining weak in 2023. Key factors to watch ahead include food prices and changes to government subsidies.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Saudi Arabia from 2013 to 2022.

Saudi Arabia Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 32.6 33.4 34.2 35.0 34.1
GDP (USD bn) 715 846 838 734 868
GDP per capita (USD) 21,922 25,332 24,503 20,958 25,458
GDP (SAR bn) 2,681 3,175 3,145 2,754 3,257
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.4 18.4 -0.9 -12.4 18.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -0.1 2.8 0.8 -4.3 3.9
Economic Growth (GDP non-Oil, ann. var. %) 2.4 -0.9 3.5 -3.0 5.7
Economic Growth (GDP Oil, ann. var. %) -3.1 2.3 -3.3 -6.7 0.2
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 1.8 0.4 6.9 -6.1 6.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.6 2.5 6.5 -8.1 9.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.3 9.3 -3.0 3.3 0.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 1.0 2.4 4.8 -10.4 10.1
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -3.1 7.2 -5.0 -10.6 1.0
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.3 2.6 9.6 -19.7 8.3
Industry (ann. var. %) -2.1 0.4 -1.9 -5.9 1.8
Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 10.0 10.3 9.8 9.2 9.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.9 6.0 5.6 7.7 6.6
General Government Revenues (SAR bn) 450 906 927 782 965
General Government Expenditures (SAR bn) 572 1,079 1,059 1,076 1,039
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.5 -5.5 -4.2 -10.7 -2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 16.5 17.6 21.6 31.0 28.8
OPEC Oil Basket Price (USD per Barrel) 52.5 69.5 64.0 41.5 69.8
Money (ann. var. of M3 %) 0.3 2.7 7.1 8.3 7.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) -1.1 1.9 -0.2 5.3 1.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) -0.8 2.5 -2.1 3.4 3.1
Inflation (WPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.0 15.7 3.7 5.2 13.3
SAMA Repo Rate (%, eop) 2.00 3.00 2.25 1.00 1.00
SAMA Reverse Repo Rate (%, eop) 1.50 2.50 1.75 0.50 0.50
3-Month Interbank Rate (%, eop) 1.90 2.98 2.23 0.82 0.90
Exchange Rate (SAR per USD, eop) 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 10 72 38 -23 44
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.5 8.5 4.6 -3.1 5.1
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 98.5 168.7 121.3 47.9 136.4
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 222 294 262 174 276
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 123 126 140 126 140
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 20.8 32.7 -11.1 -33.6 58.9
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -3.5 1.8 11.7 -10.3 11.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 1 4 5 5 19
International Reserves (USD bn) 496 496 499 453 455
International Reserves (months of imports) 48.3 47.4 42.7 43.2 39.1

Free Sample Report

Interested in Saudi Arabia economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest