Palm trees and buildings in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia Economic Forecast

Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook

Year-on-year GDP growth for Q2 was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2% in a recently released second reading. The revised figure was still the weakest in more than a year, weighed on by both cuts to crude production agreed with OPEC and those taken unilaterally. Turning to Q3, the economy is projected to contract slightly yoy. The unilateral output cut in place since July—due to last until the end of the year—led crude production to fall 17% yoy in July–August to one of the lowest levels in the past decade. More positively, the non-hydrocarbons sector likely expanded robustly, fueled by government investment bolstered by higher oil prices due to production cuts; non-oil private business activity grew at some of the fastest rates since the end of the pandemic in July and August.

Saudi Arabia Inflation

Inflation eased to 2.0% in August (July: 2.3%), a 16-month low. Inflation should remain tepid for the rest of 2023 and into 2024, limited by government energy subsidies—which have cost USD 7,000 per person since their introduction in 2021, according to the IMF. Stronger-than-expected domestic demand is an upside risk.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Saudi Arabia from 2013 to 2022.

Saudi Arabia Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 33.4 34.2 35.0 34.1 34.8
GDP (USD bn) 846 838 734 868 1,107
GDP per capita (USD) 25,332 24,503 20,958 25,458 31,808
GDP (SAR bn) 3,175 3,145 2,754 3,257 4,156
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 18.4 -0.9 -12.4 18.3 27.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.8 0.8 -4.3 3.9 8.7
Economic Growth (GDP non-Oil, ann. var. %) -0.9 3.5 -3.0 5.7 4.8
Economic Growth (GDP Oil, ann. var. %) 2.3 -3.3 -6.7 0.2 15.4
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 0.4 6.9 -6.1 6.5 5.1
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.5 6.5 -8.1 9.4 4.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 9.3 -3.0 3.3 0.8 6.7
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.4 4.8 -10.4 10.1 24.1
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.2 -5.0 -10.6 1.0 18.7
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.6 9.6 -19.7 8.3 12.0
Industry (ann. var. %) 0.4 -1.9 -5.9 1.8 12.8
Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 10.31 9.77 9.19 9.08 10.53
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.0 5.6 7.7 6.6 5.6
General Government Revenues (SAR bn) 906 927 782 965 1,268
General Government Expenditures (SAR bn) 1,079 1,059 1,076 1,039 1,164
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.5 -4.2 -10.7 -2.3 2.5
Public Debt (% of GDP) 17.6 21.6 31.0 28.8 -
Money (ann. var. of M3 %) 2.7 7.1 8.3 7.4 8.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.9 -0.2 5.3 1.2 3.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.5 -2.1 3.4 3.1 2.5
Inflation (WPI, ann. var. %, eop) 15.7 3.7 5.2 13.3 3.0
SAMA Repo Rate (%, eop) 3.00 2.25 1.00 1.00 5.00
SAMA Reverse Repo Rate (%, eop) 2.50 1.75 0.50 0.50 4.50
3-Month Interbank Rate (%, eop) 2.98 2.23 0.82 0.90 5.34
Exchange Rate (SAR per USD, eop) 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.76
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 72.0 38.2 -22.8 44.3 150.6
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 8.5 4.6 -3.1 5.1 13.6
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 168.7 121.3 47.9 136.4 234.4
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 294 262 174 276 410
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 126 140 126 140 176
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 32.7 -11.1 -33.6 58.9 48.5
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 1.8 11.7 -10.3 11.0 25.8
OPEC Oil Basket Price (USD per Barrel) 69.8 64.0 41.5 69.9 100.1
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 4.2 4.6 5.4 19.3 7.9
International Reserves (USD bn) 497 500 453 455 459
International Reserves (months of imports) 47.4 42.7 43.2 39.1 31.4

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