Palm trees and buildings in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia Economic Forecast

Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook

The economy is likely growing quickly so far in Q1 2023, but not by quite as much as it did last year. On the one hand, the non-oil PMI rose to a near eight-year high in February, boding well for the non-hydrocarbons sector. On the other hand, average oil production in January was down 2% compared to the same period last year and 7% compared to Q4 2022, boding poorly for the hydrocarbons sector. While the non-hydrocarbons sector continues to be supported by low inflation and the government’s Vision 2030 diversification reforms, the hydrocarbons sector has been hit by OPEC+ deciding in October 2022 to cut output quotas from November 2022 onward. Recent news suggests this bifurcation will remain ahead: In recent weeks, the government said the current OPEC+ deal would continue until the end of the year and then announced more than USD 50 billion of investments in local non-oil sector companies.

Saudi Arabia Inflation

Inflation rose to 3.4% in January from 3.3% in December. The government’s fuel price cap continues to contain price pressures. Inflation is seen remaining muted in 2023. Key factors to monitor ahead include changes to government subsidies and swings in food prices.

Saudi Arabia Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 32.6 33.4 34.2 35.0 35.5
GDP (USD bn) 715 846 838 734 868
GDP per capita (USD) 21 25 24 20 24
GDP (SAR bn) 2 3 3 2 3
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.4 18.4 -0.9 -12.4 18.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -0.1 2.8 0.8 -4.3 3.9
Economic Growth (GDP non-Oil, ann. var. %) 2.4 -0.9 3.5 -3.0 5.7
Economic Growth (GDP Oil, ann. var. %) -3.1 2.3 -3.3 -6.7 0.2
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 1.8 0.4 6.9 -6.1 6.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.6 2.5 6.5 -8.1 9.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.3 9.3 -3.0 3.3 0.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 1.0 2.4 4.8 -10.4 10.1
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -3.1 7.2 -5.0 -10.6 1.0
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.3 2.6 9.6 -19.7 8.3
Industry (ann. var. %) -2.1 0.4 -1.9 -5.9 1.8
Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 10.1 10.4 9.8 9.2 9.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.9 6.0 5.6 7.7 6.6
General Government Revenues (SAR bn) 450 906 927 782 965
General Government Expenditures (SAR bn) 572 1 1 1 1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.5 -5.5 -4.2 -10.7 -2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 17.2 18.3 22.5 32.4 30.0
Money (ann. var. of M3 %) 0.3 2.7 7.1 8.3 7.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) -1.1 1.9 -0.2 5.3 1.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) -0.8 2.5 -2.1 3.4 3.1
Inflation (WPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.0 15.7 3.7 5.2 13.3
SAMA Repo Rate (%, eop) 2.00 3.00 2.25 1.00 1.00
SAMA Reverse Repo Rate (%, eop) 1.5 2.5 1.8 0.5 0.5
3-Month Interbank Rate (%, eop) 1.90 2.98 2.23 0.82 0.90
Exchange Rate (SAR per USD, eop) 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 10 72 38 -23 44
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.5 8.5 4.6 -3.1 5.1
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 98 169 121 48 136
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 222 294 262 174 276
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 123 126 140 126 140
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 20.8 32.7 -11.1 -33.6 58.9
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -3.5 1.8 11.7 -10.3 11.0
OPEC Oil Basket Price (USD per Barrel) 52.5 69.5 64.0 41.5 69.8
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 1 4 5 5 19
International Reserves (USD bn) 496 496 499 453 455
International Reserves (months of imports) 48.3 47.4 42.7 43.2 39.1

Free Sample Report

Interested in Saudi Arabia economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest