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Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

Annual economic growth picked up in Q4. The acceleration was underpinned by a stronger expansion in fixed investment, partly due to EU recovery funds. Turning to this year, available data indicates that activity is slowing. Industrial production contracted sequentially in January. Moreover, consumer confidence remained entrenched in pessimistic territory in January–February. More positively, on 17 March, Moody’s affirmed the country’s ‘Ba3’ rating and upgraded the outlook to positive from stable, citing higher growth prospects and sound fiscal metrics. In other news, on 28 February, two trains collided head-on, killing 57 people. Underinvestment and lack of safety mechanisms likely contributed to the catastrophe, resulting in widespread protests and strikes during March. Following the accident, the country is seeking EU funding and advice on the rail network.

Greece Inflation

Harmonized inflation came in at 6.5% in February, down from 7.3% in January. The deceleration was driven by softer price pressures for food, transportation, and housing and utilities. Going forward, inflation is seen declining further due to higher interest rates and easing commodity prices.

Greece Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7
GDP (EUR bn) 177 180 183 165 182
GDP per capita (EUR) 16 16 17 15 17
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 1.4 1.5 2.1 -9.8 9.8
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.1 1.5 1.8 -8.7 8.1
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 0.9 1.4 0.9 -3.2 7.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.5 1.7 1.6 -7.5 6.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.7 -3.1 1.7 2.4 2.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 8.8 -4.2 -2.3 1.0 19.8
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 8.5 9.1 4.9 -21.5 24.1
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.6 7.3 2.9 -7.5 17.9
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.9 1.6 -0.7 -2.0 10.1
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 1.2 1.4 0.8 -4.0 10.3
Disposable Income (ann. var. %) 1.0 0.0 2.4 -8.5 7.0
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 21.2 19.0 17.0 16.7 12.9
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 21.9 19.8 17.8 17.6 14.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.6 0.9 1.1 -9.9 -7.5
Public Debt (% of GDP) 180 186 181 206 195
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 0.7 0.6 0.8 -2.3 5.1
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, eop) 1.0 0.6 1.1 -2.4 4.4
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) 1.1 0.8 0.5 -1.3 0.6
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 5.3 4.3 0.4 -7.3 13.8
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 4.12 4.40 1.46 0.63 1.31
Stock Market (var. of ASE %) 24.7 -23.6 49.5 -11.8 10.4
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.22 1.14
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.13 1.18 1.12 1.14 1.18
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -3.4 -5.2 -2.7 -11.0 -12.3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.9 -2.9 -1.5 -6.6 -6.8
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -19.8 -22.5 -22.8 -18.5 -26.7
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 2.9 3.5 4.5 2.6 5.0

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