The coast of Greece

Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

Year-on-year economic growth was likely lower in Q2 than in Q1. Industrial production growth more than halved to 0.6%, and merchandise exports plummeted by double digits, likely due to the weak state of the global economy. Moreover, retail sales decelerated in the first two months of the quarter. That said, a silver lining came from the tourism sector, with arrivals from abroad beating pre-pandemic levels in the quarter. This, in turn, helped push down the unemployment rate to the joint-lowest level in over a decade in June, supporting consumer spending. In other news, Greece’s investment-grade rating was restored by Scope Ratings in August due to the recent decline in public debt. While Scope’s assessments aren’t currently recognized by the ECB, upgrades by other ratings agencies are possible this year.

Greece Inflation

Harmonized inflation rose to 3.5% in July, up from June’s 2.8%. Price pressures were stoked by higher services inflation, potentially linked to the recent surge in tourism. That said, the inflation figure was still the second lowest since the war in Ukraine began. Our panelists see inflation averaging slightly below the July level in H2 as a whole.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Greece from 2013 to 2022.

Greece Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6
GDP (EUR bn) 180 183 165 182 208
GDP per capita (EUR) 16,717 17,096 15,431 17,012 19,561
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 1.5 2.1 -9.8 9.8 14.5
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.6 1.8 -8.7 8.1 5.9
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 1.4 0.9 -3.2 7.3 8.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.7 1.6 -7.5 6.1 7.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -3.1 1.7 2.4 2.5 -1.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -4.2 -2.3 1.0 19.8 11.6
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 9.1 4.9 -21.5 24.1 4.9
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.5 2.9 -7.4 17.9 10.7
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.6 -0.7 -2.0 10.1 2.3
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 1.4 0.8 -4.0 10.3 3.3
Disposable Income (ann. var. %) 0.0 2.4 -8.5 7.0 -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 19.1 17.0 16.8 13.0 11.6
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 19.8 17.9 17.6 14.8 12.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.9 0.9 -9.7 -7.1 -2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 186 181 206 195 171
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 0.6 0.8 -2.3 5.1 7.2
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, eop) 0.6 1.1 -2.4 4.4 7.6
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) 0.8 0.5 -1.3 0.6 9.3
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.3 0.4 -7.3 13.8 35.1
ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50
ECB Overnight Deposit Rate (%, eop) -0.40 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 2.00
3-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) -0.31 -0.38 -0.55 -0.57 2.13
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 4.40 1.46 0.63 1.31 4.57
Stock Market (var. of ASE %) -23.6 49.5 -11.7 10.4 4.1
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.14 1.12 1.22 1.14 1.07
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.18 1.12 1.14 1.18 1.05
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -5.2 -2.7 -11.0 -12.3 -20.1
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.9 -1.5 -6.6 -6.8 -9.7
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -22.5 -22.8 -18.5 -26.7 -39.0
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 3.5 4.5 2.6 5.6 7.1

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