Romania Economic Outlook
A fast-growing EU economy:
Romania, with a GDP of around $350 billion, has been one of the fastest-growing economies in the EU over the past decade. The country has benefited from rising wages, foreign investment, and EU funding, which have driven strong domestic consumption and infrastructure development. However, Romania faced headwinds in 2023, including high inflation, a weakening currency, and fiscal imbalances, which have put pressure on economic stability.
Industry and foreign investment:Romania’s economy is highly diversified, with key sectors including automotive manufacturing, IT services, and agriculture. The country has become a major hub for the automotive industry, with companies like Ford and Renault producing vehicles for export. The IT sector is also booming, with Romania establishing itself as a key European center for software development and outsourcing. Foreign investment remains strong, though concerns about governance and corruption still deter some investors.
Challenges:Romania faces several economic hurdles, including a large budget deficit, a weak healthcare and education system, and a high degree of informal employment. Inflation surged past 15% in 2022, affecting household purchasing power and leading to higher interest rates. The country also struggles with demographic decline, as many young professionals continue to emigrate to Western Europe in search of better opportunities. Additionally, inefficient public administration and corruption remain barriers to long-term development.
Romania’s economic projections:Despite short-term risks, Romania’s economy is expected to maintain solid growth, supported by EU funding, foreign investment, and continued expansion in IT and manufacturing. The government must implement fiscal reforms to stabilize public finances and improve governance to sustain investor confidence. If structural challenges are addressed, Romania has the potential to become one of the EU’s strongest emerging economies in the coming decades.
Romania's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 351 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 18,405 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 3.4% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 60% of overall GDP, manufacturing 14%, other industrial activity 22%, and agriculture 4%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 62% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 17%, fixed investment 26%, and net exports -5%.International trade
In 2021, manufactured products made up 76% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 5%, food 13%, ores and metals 2% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other categories accounting for 3% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 76% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 9%, food 11%, ores and metals 2% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other goods accounting for 1% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 93 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 129 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 3.4% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Romania, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Romania's fiscal deficit averaged 4.1% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 6.2% in the decade to 2024. For more information on Romania's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 4.2% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Romania inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Romania's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 6.50%, up from 2.75% a decade earlier. See our Romania monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the leu weakened by 22.9% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the leu, click here.
Economic situation in Romania
After flatlining in Q3, GDP should have grown in sequential terms in Q4. Retail sales expanded at a faster rate than Q3 in Q4, and industrial production improved from Q3’s average level in October–November. Moreover, goods exports rose from Q3 levels in the same two-month period. Furthermore, annual tourist arrivals growth continued to remain robust in Q4. Turning to Q1 2025, economic growth should be cooling from Q4’s projected level; economic sentiment turned downbeat for the first time since May 2023 in January. In other news, the European Court of Human Rights rejected in January an appeal by pro-Russian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu to overturn the domestic court’s annulment of the December election. Meanwhile, President Klaus Iohannis resigned in February amid pressure from far-right parties; polls place Georgescu as the frontrunner in the 4 May elections rerun.Romania Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.55 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 35 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Romania in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 55 economic indicators for Romania from a panel of 35 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Romania economy. To download a sample report on the Romania's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.