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Romania Economic Forecast

Romania Economic Outlook

A flash estimate revealed that annual economic growth slowed to 0.2% in the third quarter from 1.0% in the second quarter. Although a complete breakdown is not yet available, data suggests that another sizable contraction in the industrial sector and falling external demand were behind the slowdown. Merchandise exports decreased heavily in year-on-year terms in Q3, swinging from Q2’s increase. On top of this, inflation cooled but proved more stubborn than expected, likely weighing on consumer spending. Turning to Q4, our panel expects year-on-year growth to accelerate. Economic sentiment strengthened in October amid broad-based improvements across production sectors, and in the same month, inflation fell further, which should be supporting spending.

Romania Inflation

Inflation fell to 8.1% in October from 8.8% in September—the lowest level since November 2021. Softer price pressures for both food and non-food products offset sharper price increases for services. Inflation will continue to moderate in 2024 due to the lagged effects of prior monetary tightening. A stronger-than-expected fiscal deficit poses an upside risk.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Romania from 2013 to 2022.

Romania Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.0
GDP (USD bn) 243 251 251 286 301
GDP per capita (USD) 12,448 12,924 13,007 14,873 15,785
GDP (EUR bn) 206 224 221 242 286
GDP per capita (EUR) 10,550 11,547 11,410 12,582 15,018
GDP (RON bn) 959 1,064 1,067 1,189 1,410
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 12.6 10.9 0.3 11.5 18.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 6.0 3.8 -3.7 5.9 4.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 9.3 3.2 -3.7 8.2 5.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.9 7.9 0.6 2.0 5.4
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 0.2 12.4 1.4 2.0 7.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 5.3 4.6 -9.4 12.8 8.9
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 8.7 8.8 -5.8 15.4 10.5
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 5.0 -3.6 -9.5 7.4 -2.0
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 5.5 7.2 2.3 10.1 4.4
Wages (ann. var. %) 35.4 13.0 6.4 7.1 11.3
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 5.0 4.9 6.3 6.0 5.6
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.3 4.9 6.1 5.6 5.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -4.3 -9.3 -7.2 -6.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 34.5 35.1 46.8 48.5 47.2
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 8.9 10.9 15.3 15.8 6.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.3 4.0 2.1 8.2 16.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.6 3.8 2.6 5.0 13.7
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) 4.1 3.9 2.3 4.1 12.0
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 2.7 4.1 3.8 4.8 13.8
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 5.0 4.0 0.0 14.9 44.7
NBR Reference Rate (%, eop) 2.50 2.50 1.50 1.75 6.75
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 4.91 4.51 3.08 5.26 8.31
Stock Market (ann. var. of BET %) -4.8 35.1 -1.7 33.2 -10.7
Exchange Rate (RON per USD, eop) 4.07 4.26 3.97 4.37 4.63
Exchange Rate (RON per USD, aop) 3.94 4.24 4.24 4.16 4.69
Exchange Rate (RON per EUR, eop) 4.66 4.79 4.87 4.95 4.95
Exchange Rate (RON per EUR, aop) 4.65 4.75 4.84 4.92 4.93
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -9.5 -10.9 -10.9 -17.5 -26.0
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.6 -4.9 -4.9 -7.2 -9.1
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -15.3 -17.9 -18.9 -23.1 -32.1
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 61.8 63.1 57.6 70.2 86.0
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 77.2 80.9 76.5 93.3 118.1
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 8.1 2.0 -8.7 21.9 22.5
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 10.2 4.9 -5.4 22.0 26.5
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 5.4 5.2 2.8 9.3 10.6
International Reserves (EUR bn) 36.8 37.5 42.5 45.8 52.3
International Reserves (months of imports) 5.7 5.6 6.7 5.9 5.3
External Debt (EUR bn) 99.8 109.8 126.7 136.6 143.9
External Debt (% of GDP) 48.4 49.0 57.5 56.5 50.3

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