Romania buildings

Romania Economic Forecast

Romania Economic Outlook

Year-on-year GDP growth waned in the second quarter, coming in below market expectations. Pending the release of a full breakdown, weaker retail sales activity in the quarter likely signals subdued private consumption despite above-inflation wage growth. Slower merchandise exports growth also points to less supportive external demand. That said, a high base of comparison was also behind the annual deceleration, and a faster quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q2 shows robust underlying momentum. That said, available data for the current quarter suggests momentum has cooled somewhat, with economic sentiment declining in July. On the other hand, a further decrease in inflation in August could be positive news for household spending. Meanwhile, in mid-August, the government announced its intention to double the country’s monthly transit capacity for Ukrainian grain.

Romania Inflation

Inflation fell to 9.4% in July (June: 10.3%), marking the lowest reading since February 2022. Lower price pressures for food and non-food products more than offset a pick-up in services inflation. Inflation will continue to slow but remain high by year-end. Weaker demand and government intervention in energy and food markets will keep a lid on prices.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Romania from 2013 to 2022.

Romania Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.0
GDP (USD bn) 243 251 251 285 301
GDP per capita (USD) 12,448 12,924 13,007 14,852 15,785
GDP (EUR bn) 206 224 221 241 286
GDP per capita (EUR) 10,550 11,547 11,410 12,564 15,018
GDP (RON bn) 959 1,064 1,067 1,187 1,410
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 12.6 10.9 0.3 11.3 18.7
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 6.0 3.8 -3.7 5.9 4.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 9.3 3.2 -3.7 8.2 5.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.9 7.9 0.6 2.0 5.4
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 0.2 12.4 1.4 2.0 7.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 5.3 4.6 -9.4 12.8 8.9
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 8.7 8.8 -5.8 15.4 10.5
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 5.0 -3.6 -9.5 7.4 -2.0
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 5.5 7.2 2.3 10.1 4.4
Wages (ann. var. %) 35.4 13.0 6.4 7.1 11.3
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 5.0 4.9 6.3 6.0 5.6
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.3 4.9 6.1 5.6 5.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -4.3 -9.2 -7.1 -6.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 34.5 35.1 46.9 48.6 47.3
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 8.9 10.9 15.3 15.8 6.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.3 4.0 2.1 8.2 16.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.6 3.8 2.6 5.0 13.7
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) 4.1 3.9 2.3 4.1 12.0
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 2.7 4.1 3.8 4.8 13.8
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 5.0 4.0 0.0 14.9 44.7
NBR Reference Rate (%, eop) 2.50 2.50 1.50 1.75 6.75
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 4.91 4.51 3.08 5.26 8.31
Stock Market (ann. var. of BET %) -4.8 35.1 -1.7 33.2 -10.7
Exchange Rate (RON per USD, eop) 4.07 4.26 3.97 4.37 4.63
Exchange Rate (RON per USD, aop) 3.94 4.24 4.24 4.16 4.69
Exchange Rate (RON per EUR, eop) 4.66 4.79 4.87 4.95 4.95
Exchange Rate (RON per EUR, aop) 4.65 4.75 4.84 4.92 4.93
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -9.5 -10.9 -10.9 -17.5 -26.7
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.6 -4.9 -4.9 -7.2 -9.3
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -15.3 -17.9 -18.9 -23.1 -32.3
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 61.8 63.1 57.6 70.2 85.8
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 77.2 80.9 76.5 93.3 118.2
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 8.1 2.0 -8.7 21.9 22.3
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 10.2 4.9 -5.4 22.0 26.6
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 5.4 5.2 2.8 9.3 10.6
International Reserves (EUR bn) 36.8 37.5 42.5 45.8 52.3
International Reserves (months of imports) 5.7 5.6 6.7 5.9 5.3
External Debt (EUR bn) 99.8 109.8 126.7 136.6 144.6
External Debt (% of GDP) 48.4 49.0 57.5 56.6 50.6

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