Romania buildings

Romania Government Consumption

Romania Government Consumption

Government Consumption in Romania

The Romanian economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.5% in government consumption over the decade to 2022. In 2022, government consumption growth was 5.4%.

Romania Government Consumption Chart

Note: This chart displays Government Consumption (ann. var. %) for Romania from 2013 to 2022.
Source: National Institute of Statistics Romania.

Romania Government Consumption Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.5 7.2 1.1 1.8 3.1

Economic growth accelerates in Q3

According to a preliminary estimate, growth sped up in the fourth quarter, coming in at 2.9% on an annual basis (Q3: +1.1% yoy). This brings growth for 2023 as a whole to 2.0%. A full breakdown will not be available until 8 March. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy contracted 0.4% in Q4 (Q3: +0.8% qoq s.a.).

Going ahead, the should will grow at a faster pace this year than last owing to stronger momentum in household spending, fixed investment and exports, as well as a rebound in industrial production. Key factors to monitor are fiscal metrics and the renegotiation of the National Recovery Plan with the EU, while slower-than-expected progress on key reforms is a downside risk

Commenting on the outlook, Stefan Posea and Valentin Tataru from ING stated: “The 2.0% real GDP growth in 2023 is somewhat better than recent expectations, but well below potential and it confirms National Bank of Romania’s latest assessment of further contraction of excess aggregate demand. This will continue into 2024 for which we maintain our 2.8% GDP growth estimate, as the public investment engine is likely to get some help from private consumption as well. Monetary policy easing might help in the second half of the year, but in our view, the bigger issue is that GDP growth rates of 4.0-5.0% – that were business as usual just a short while ago – might become daring targets in the future.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Romanian government consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 12 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable government consumption forecast available for Romanian government consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Romanian government consumption projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Romanian government consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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