Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
The outlook for next year is rosier, with GDP growth to improve compared to 2023; the region’s top two oil producers, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are set to increase crude output. Strong government spending and investment in diversifying the economy will add further support. That said, growth would be knocked by a wider regional war or further cuts to oil production.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Inflation will continue to vary sharply across the region in 2024, with low inflation in the Gulf, Israel and Jordan, moderate inflation in most of North Africa, and high inflation in Egypt, Lebanon, Iran and Yemen. That said, inflation should ease in most countries in the region versus 2023. Currency devaluations and food price spikes are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2020.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per capita (USD) | 8,076 | 7,902 | 7,007 | - | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.2 | 1.6 | -3.4 | - | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.5 | 3.7 | - | - | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 2.3 | 1.2 | -7.2 | - | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -0.2 | -1.7 | -4.9 | 4.0 | 8.0 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,194 | 1,088 | 838 | 1,173 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 860 | 869 | 767 | 889 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,027 | 1,053 | 1,034 | 1,116 | 1,147 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 25.8 | 27.7 | 32.1 | 30.5 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.4 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 5.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.8 | -3.7 | -9.9 | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 41.2 | 43.9 | 56.7 | 52.6 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.8 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 9.4 |
| 1-week Repo Rate (%, eop) | 3.88 | 3.17 | 2.13 | 2.09 | 5.82 |
| Exchange Rate (ALL per USD, eop) | 128 | 126 | 123 | 114 | 120 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 5.1 | 2.6 | -0.8 | - | - |