Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
GDP growth this year will be less than the average of the past 10 years. Oil producers will be burdened by lower OPEC quotas, while drought will hit agriculture in North Africa. Overall, the region will be impacted by rate hikes and a soft global economy. The weather, geopolitics, the Ukraine grain deal and further OPEC output cuts are key factors to watch.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Our panelists now expect inflation in MENA to rise slightly this year on average compared to last year. However, this will largely be due to currency weakness spurring prices in Egypt, Iran and Lebanon, and most countries will see lower inflation this year. Key factors to watch include the Ukraine grain deal and the impact of the recent drought on food prices.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2020.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,821 | 7,811 | 7,819 | 6,957 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | -3.2 | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 4.6 | 2.6 | 3.9 | - | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | -0.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | -7.3 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,022 | 1,194 | 1,088 | 838 | 1,174 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 834 | 860 | 866 | 766 | 887 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,037 | 1,068 | 1,091 | 1,059 | 1,134 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 24.1 | 29.8 | 30.3 | 34.7 | 32.9 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 0.4 | 0.0 | -1.7 | -5.0 | 4.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 7.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.4 | -2.7 | -3.7 | -9.6 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 45.6 | 43.7 | 46.9 | 58.0 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 7.3 |
| Policy Rate (%, eop) | 3.69 | 3.89 | 3.23 | 2.17 | 2.04 |
| Exchange Rate (LCU per USD, eop) | 122.6 | 127.6 | 125.8 | 122.6 | 114.6 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 0.7 | 5.2 | 2.6 | -0.8 | - |