Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
The region is projected to grow less in 2023 than the preceding 10 years’ average. Factors driving this include lower oil production, higher interest rates, a lagging global economy and drought in some countries. Risks are tilted to the downside, with Saudi Arabia likely to extend its 10% oil production cut until at least October.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Regional inflation should rise in 2023 compared to 2022. The acceleration will be driven by five countries—Egypt, Iran, Lebanon, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia—with the rest seeing roughly stable or lower inflation rates. That said, our panelists upped their 2023 inflation forecasts for the region this month after oil prices rose and the Ukraine grain deal ended.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2022.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per capita (USD) | 7,807 | 7,812 | 6,954 | - | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.2 | 1.7 | -3.2 | - | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.6 | 3.8 | - | - | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 2.8 | 1.2 | -7.2 | - | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 5.2 | 2.6 | -0.8 | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,194 | 1,088 | 838 | 1,173 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 860 | 867 | 766 | 887 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,068 | 1,091 | 1,059 | 1,134 | 1,163 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 29.9 | 30.3 | 34.5 | 32.9 | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -0.6 | -1.9 | -5.3 | 4.5 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.8 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 7.2 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.7 | -3.7 | -9.6 | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 43.0 | 45.9 | 57.9 | - | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.5 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 9.5 |
| Base Rate (%, eop) | 3.89 | 3.24 | 2.26 | 2.22 | 5.68 |
| Exchange Rate (KZT per USD, eop) | 128 | 126 | 123 | 115 | 120 |