Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
With the Iran war blazing again, our panel has further cut its projections for MENA’s GDP growth in 2026, especially for oil producers near the Gulf. Our panel now sees MENA GDP contracting for the first time since the pandemic in 2020. The extent of the downturn will ultimately depend on the speed with which the U.S. and Iran can reach a peace deal.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Pricier commodities because of the Iran war mean our panel now projects MENA’s average inflation rate to increase this year, albeit staying below the 2022–2023 peak. Iran, Lebanon and Yemen have incurred the biggest forecast hikes, reflecting their entanglement in the conflict and reliance on imports. Richer Gulf states are less vulnerable due to state subsidies.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 51.7 | 43.4 | 43.6 | 44.8 | 48.5 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.5 | 11.4 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 3.7 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 855 | 1,215 | 1,438 | 1,481 | 1,555 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 204 | 432 | 307 | 228 | 138 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,983 | 10,577 | 10,120 | 10,347 | 10,421 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.4 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 6.3 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 651 | 783 | 1,131 | 1,253 | 1,417 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 4.5 | 15.4 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 1.9 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,116 | 1,148 | 1,219 | 1,274 | 1,351 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 44.7 | 39.7 | 41.9 | 43.6 | 45.6 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 5.3 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 4.2 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.84 | 5.74 | 6.67 | 6.78 | 5.33 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.0 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.4 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | 2.4 | -1.5 | -2.4 | -4.2 |
| Money (ann. var. of M2 %) | 10.3 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 10.5 |