Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for the region’s economy to expand at a quicker pace in 2025 than in 2024 and the 2014–2023 average of 2.5%. Oil output should gradually accelerate from April, and non-oil output should zoom ahead in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Key factors to watch include U.S. trade policy and peace negotiations between Hamas and Israel.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
MENA countries this year will continue to see acutely different inflation rates, though variation will be less than in recent years as currencies in Egypt and Lebanon stabilize. In countries with U.S. dollar pegs, inflation should stay tepid. Risks are tilted to the upside and include currency devaluations, supply chain issues, war and jumps in food prices.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.2 | - | 7.4 | - | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 1.5 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 774 | 890 | 783 | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -9.5 | -3.0 | 2.6 | - | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.0 | 4.6 | 9.5 | - | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -10.0 | - | 19.7 | - | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.7 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 56.0 | 51.9 | 44.3 | - | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 11.2 | - |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.97 | 1.90 | 5.79 | 6.74 | 6.94 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 49.2 | 45.2 | 40.3 | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 840 | 1,173 | 1,215 | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,034 | 1,115 | 1,147 | 1,218 | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,061 | 8,321 | 9,781 | 9,245 | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -5.0 | 4.1 | 8.9 | -1.6 | - |