Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
With the Strait of Hormuz still not fully reopened, our panel further trimmed its 2026 GDP growth forecasts for the MENA economy in June, with oil producers Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE most affected since the Iran war broke out. Our panel now sees MENA GDP increasing at the weakest pace in the post-pandemic era.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Pricier commodities due to the conflict mean our panel now sees MENA’s aggregate inflation rate rising in 2026, albeit staying below the 2022–2023 peaks. Iran, Lebanon and Yemen have suffered the largest forecast hikes, reflecting their entanglement in the war and dependence on imports of primary materials. Rich Gulf states are less vulnerable due to state subsidies.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 44.7 | 39.6 | 41.8 | 43.6 | 45.8 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.4 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,992 | 10,588 | 10,140 | 10,352 | 10,439 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 51.6 | 43.4 | 43.5 | 44.8 | 48.5 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 4.5 | 15.3 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 2.0 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 5.3 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 4.1 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.5 | 11.4 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 3.6 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.0 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.5 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 850 | 1,210 | 1,438 | 1,481 | 1,510 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 204 | 428 | 307 | 228 | 134 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 646 | 782 | 1,131 | 1,253 | 1,376 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.84 | 5.73 | 6.67 | 6.78 | 5.33 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.4 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 6.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | 2.4 | -1.5 | -2.4 | -4.2 |
| Money (ann. var. of M2 %) | 10.3 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 10.5 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,116 | 1,148 | 1,219 | 1,274 | 1,349 |