Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
The outlook for the region was stable over the past month, with panelists having already incorporated the extension of voluntary OPEC+ curbs through September into their forecasts. Panelists see the region’s GDP growth speeding up from 2023 but undershooting the 10-year average of 2.5%. The non-oil sector should accelerate, while the oil sector should contract less.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
MENA countries’ inflation rates will differ markedly this year. They will be soft in the Gulf, Israel and Jordan; moderate in North Africa; and high in Egypt, Lebanon, Iran and Yemen. Regardless, compared to last year, inflation should be lower in most MENA countries. Currency devaluations and food-price spikes are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2022.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.4 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.6 | -9.8 | -3.0 | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 43.3 | 56.0 | 51.9 | 44.1 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 3.5 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 11.2 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.17 | 2.13 | 2.09 | 5.78 | 6.75 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.6 | -0.9 | 4.6 | - | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 41.3 | 49.0 | 45.1 | 40.4 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,088 | 838 | 1,173 | - | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 869 | 767 | 889 | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,053 | 1,034 | 1,115 | 1,147 | 1,218 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | -3.1 | 4.7 | 6.2 | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,953 | 7,050 | 8,288 | 9,718 | - |
| 3.7 | - | - | - | - | |
| 1.3 | -8.4 | - | - | - | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.0 | -5.1 | 4.3 | 8.5 | - |