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Middle East & North Africa Economic Forecast

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

GDP growth is expected to improve in 2024 from 2023. The region’s oil sector should come close to stabilization after shrinking last year, while the non-oil sector should continue to be supported by strong government investment. The escalation of the Gaza war and the prolongation of voluntary OPEC+ quota cuts into H2 are the main downside risks.

Middle East & North Africa Inflation

Inflation will continue to vary sharply across the region this year, being low in the Gulf, Israel and Jordan, moderate in most of North Africa, and high in Egypt, Lebanon, Iran and Yemen. Nonetheless, compared to 2023, inflation should soften in most countries in the region. Upside risks include currency devaluations and food-price spikes.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2021.

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
GDP per capita (USD) 7,902 7,007 8,236 - -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.6 -3.4 4.7 - -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.7 - - - -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 1.4 -7.1 - - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -1.9 -4.9 4.0 8.3 -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.4 7.6 7.2 6.4 -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.7 -9.8 -3.0 - -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 44.1 56.8 52.5 - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.5 4.3 7.3 8.6 -
CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) 3.17 2.13 2.09 5.81 -
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) 102 107 104 112 16
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.6 -0.9 4.7 - -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 1,088 838 1,173 - -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 869 767 889 - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 1,053 1,034 1,116 1,147 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 30.3 34.4 32.8 - -

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