Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
With the Iran war reignited, our panel has further slashed its forecasts for MENA’s GDP growth this year, with oil producers Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE most affected since the conflict broke out. Our panel now sees MENA GDP increasing at the weakest pace in the post-pandemic era and barely eking out growth.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Costlier commodities due to the war mean our panelists now see MENA’s overall inflation rate increasing this year, albeit remaining below the 2022–2023 peak. Iran, Lebanon and Yemen have suffered the largest forecast hikes, reflecting their involvement in the conflict and dependence on imports. Wealthier Gulf states are less exposed due to state subsidies.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.0 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.4 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.4 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 6.3 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,992 | 10,588 | 10,131 | 10,347 | 10,407 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 4.5 | 15.3 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 2.1 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 646 | 782 | 1,131 | 1,253 | 1,423 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 850 | 1,210 | 1,438 | 1,481 | 1,561 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 51.6 | 43.4 | 43.5 | 44.8 | 48.6 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 204 | 428 | 307 | 228 | 138 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,116 | 1,148 | 1,219 | 1,274 | 1,353 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.4 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.84 | 5.73 | 6.67 | 6.78 | 5.34 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 44.7 | 39.6 | 41.8 | 43.6 | 45.8 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 5.3 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 4.1 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.5 | 11.4 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 3.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | 2.4 | -1.5 | -2.4 | -4.2 |
| Money (ann. var. of M2 %) | 10.3 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 10.5 |