Skyline at night in Oman

Oman Economic Forecast

Oman Economic Outlook

The economy grew 4.3% last year. The expansion was led by the oil sector, which grew 10.2%. The non-hydrocarbons sector expanded 1.6%, with services output rising 5.0%. Heading into 2023, the hydrocarbons sector appears to have weakened, with oil output close to stagnant in January–April compared to 2022. That said, LNG exports were up 23% in January–February, providing some respite. The non-hydrocarbons sector may be faring better, with inflation having ticked down in the year so far. In other news, Moody’s bumped up the government’s credit rating a notch to ‘Ba2’ in mid-May and kept a positive outlook, citing stronger fiscal metrics as a result of energy prices rising sharply last year. Bearing out this conclusion, in late May, the government announced it had a 2.7% of GDP budget surplus in 2022—the best result in nearly 10 years.

Oman Inflation

Inflation fell to 1.2% in April (March: 1.6%). Inflation should remain soft this year, averaging the lowest in the Gulf region. The key factors behind the softer annual forecast include recent rate hikes, government subsidies and a tougher base effect. Factors to monitor include commodity price swings and potential further government intervention.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Oman from 2013 to 2022.

Oman Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.5
GDP (USD bn) 81 91 88 76 88
GDP per capita (USD) 17,707 19,860 19,044 17,054 19,456
GDP (OMR bn) 31 35 34 29 34
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.6 13.2 -3.8 -13.8 16.2
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.3 1.3 -1.1 -3.4 3.1
Economic Growth (GDP Oil, ann. var. %) -2.6 3.0 -2.6 -2.0 3.8
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 6.6 -2.1 -3.9 1.0 -2.8
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 9.3 0.9 -3.8 9.6 6.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.9 2.6 2.5 -14.0 0.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -3.5 0.5 -10.4 1.8 -1.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.8 2.8 1.9 -14.6 14.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 13.8 -4.4 -3.4 -8.9 2.7
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -2.2 0.5 -2.3 0.0 1.1
Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 0.97 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.97
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 2.6 1.8 1.9 2.9 2.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -12.1 -7.5 -7.8 -17.2 -3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 40.1 44.7 52.5 69.7 61.3
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 4.2 8.3 2.0 8.9 4.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.6 0.9 0.1 -0.9 1.5
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 2.06 3.01 2.28 0.50 0.50
Exchange Rate (OMR per USD, eop) 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -11 -4 -4 -12 -4
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -13.4 -4.4 -4.6 -16.2 -4.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 8.8 18.1 18.2 7.6 16.5
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 33 42 39 33 45
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 24 24 20 26 28
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 19.4 26.9 -7.3 -13.4 33.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 13.3 -2.0 -13.5 26.3 8.5
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 3 6 4 3 4
International Reserves (USD bn) 16 17 17 15 20
International Reserves (months of imports) 8.0 8.8 9.8 7.0 8.4

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