Skyline at night in Oman

Oman Economic Forecast

Oman Economic Outlook

GDP growth clocked in above its 10-year average in 2022, and accelerated further in Q1 2023. Momentum came from the non-hydrocarbons sector: Agricultural, industrial and services output all improved. Conversely, the hydrocarbons sector slowed, and appeared to do so further in Q2 2023: Crude output dipped year on year in the quarter due to a production cut agreed with other OPEC+ members effective until end-2024. Meanwhile, the non-hydrocarbons sector faced two opposing forces. While inflation dipped to just 0.6% in June, boding well for private spending, interest rates continued to rise due to the currency peg to the U.S. dollar, restricting domestic demand. In other news, the government reported a budget surplus of 656 million Omani rials (USD 1.7 billion) in H1, boding well for investor confidence and the country’s credit rating, which was upgraded by Moody’s in May.

Oman Inflation

Inflation fell to 0.5% in July (June: 0.6%) and should remain low ahead, averaging among the softest in the Gulf region this year owing to government subsidies and a tougher base effect. Key factors to watch include commodity price fluctuations and changes to government price controls and subsidies.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Oman from 2013 to 2022.

Oman Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.6
GDP (USD bn) 91.4 87.9 75.8 88.1 114.5
GDP per capita (USD) 19,860 19,044 17,054 19,456 24,739
GDP (OMR bn) 35.2 33.9 29.2 33.9 44.1
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 13.2 -3.8 -13.8 16.2 30.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.3 -1.1 -3.4 3.1 4.3
Economic Growth (GDP Oil, ann. var. %) 3.0 -2.6 -2.0 3.8 10.2
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -2.1 -3.9 1.0 -2.8 -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.9 -3.8 9.6 6.8 -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.6 2.5 -14.0 0.9 -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 0.5 -10.4 1.8 -1.5 -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.8 1.9 -14.6 14.2 -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -4.4 -3.4 -8.9 2.7 -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 0.5 -2.3 0.0 1.1 5.1
Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 1.8 1.9 2.9 2.5 2.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -7.5 -7.8 -17.2 -3.6 2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 44.7 52.5 69.7 61.3 40.1
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 8.3 2.0 8.9 4.6 0.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.9 0.1 -0.9 1.5 2.8
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 3.01 2.28 0.50 0.50 5.00
Exchange Rate (OMR per USD, eop) 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -4.0 -4.0 -12.3 -4.3 7.4
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.4 -4.6 -16.2 -4.9 6.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 18.1 18.2 7.6 16.5 -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 41.7 38.7 33.5 44.6 -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 23.6 20.5 25.8 28.0 -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 26.9 -7.3 -13.4 33.2 -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -2.0 -13.5 26.3 8.5 -
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 6.5 4.2 2.9 4.0 3.7
International Reserves (USD bn) 17.4 16.7 15.0 19.7 17.6
International Reserves (months of imports) 8.8 9.8 7.0 8.4 -

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