Skyline at night in Oman

Oman Economic Forecast

Oman Economic Outlook

GDP expanded 4.5% in January–September year on year, largely due to the hydrocarbons sector; crude output was up 13.4%. Non-oil activity was dented by contractions in agricultural and industrial production. The services sector performed more strongly, boosted by a significant expansion in the transportation and storage sector. In Q4, economic growth is projected to have remained roughly stable. Heading into the new year, oil production was up 3.6% in January, in part due to a tougher base effect. In other news, on 14 February, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq unveiled new welfare measures totaling around USD 1.1 billion. Their implementation—the timing of which remains uncertain—will likely boost social stability ahead at the cost of hurting the fiscal surplus.

Oman Inflation

Inflation was stable at 1.9% in January. Inflation should decline this year, averaging at the lowest rate in the Gulf region. Key drivers of this decline include recent rate hikes, government subsidies and lower commodity prices. Factors to watch include gyrations in commodity prices and potential further government intervention.

Oman Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.5
GDP (USD bn) 81 91 88 76 88
GDP per capita (USD) 17 19 19 17 19
GDP (OMR bn) 31 35 34 29 34
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.6 13.2 -3.8 -13.8 16.2
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.3 1.3 -1.1 -3.4 3.1
Economic Growth (GDP Oil, ann. var. %) -2.6 3.0 -2.6 -2.0 3.8
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 6.6 -2.1 -3.9 1.0 -2.8
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 9.3 0.9 -3.8 9.6 6.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.9 2.6 2.5 -14.0 0.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -3.5 0.5 -10.4 1.8 -1.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.8 2.8 1.9 -14.6 14.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 13.8 -4.4 -3.4 -8.9 2.7
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -2.2 0.5 -2.3 0.0 1.1
Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 2.6 1.8 1.8 2.9 3.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -12.1 -7.5 -7.8 -17.2 -3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 40.1 44.7 52.5 69.7 62.9
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 4.2 8.3 2.0 8.9 4.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.6 0.9 0.1 -0.9 1.5
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 2.06 3.01 2.28 0.50 0.50
Exchange Rate (OMR per USD, eop) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -11 -4 -4 -12 -4
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -13.4 -4.4 -4.6 -16.2 -4.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 9 18 18 8 17
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 33 42 39 33 45
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 24 24 20 26 28
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 19.4 26.9 -7.3 -13.4 33.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 13.3 -2.0 -13.5 26.3 8.5
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 3 6 4 3 4
International Reserves (USD bn) 16 17 17 15 20
International Reserves (months of imports) 8.0 8.8 9.8 7.0 8.4

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