Energy Prices

Energy prices decreased 6.5% month on month in April, following March’s 4.0% fall.

Prices for energy commodities fell for the third consecutive month in April, and at the sharpest pace in seven months. All energy commodities barring coking coal and uranium saw declines. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, announced on 2 April, were unexpectedly broad, and although they were then paused until July, a 10% baseline levy remains in place. Moreover, the U.S. and China engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff escalation. These levies—current and threatened—bode poorly for global economic growth and therefore demand for energy commodities, hitting energy prices in turn; our Consensus Forecast for 2025 global economic growth dropped over the past month. Moreover, OPEC+ announced in April that it would hike oil output requirements for May, further weighing on prices for oil and its derivatives.