Bosnia-Herz. Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)

Bosnia-Herz. Economic Forecast

Bosnia-Herz. Economic Outlook

Year-on-year GDP growth slowed to 1.7% in the fourth quarter, down from 2.6% in the third quarter. Behind the deceleration were sharper contractions in industry and agriculture. In Q1, data suggests similarly mild growth. Relative to Q4, the expansions in merchandise exports and retail sales slowed, while industrial production continued to contract. In contrast, growth in other services accelerated, and the number of overnight tourist stays in Q1 increased by 16.4% from a year earlier. Turning to Q2, sluggish goods demand from key trading partners is weighing on exports, while a bleak credit outlook and uncertainties around domestic and external demand are likely dampening investment. However, the drop-off of inflation in April bodes well for private consumption.

Bosnia-Herz. Inflation

Inflation came in at 7.9% in April, down from 10.3% in March. Average inflation is set to recede in 2023 due to a tough base effect, albeit remaining relatively high. Unexpected changes in energy and food prices and stickier-than-expected core inflation are factors to watch.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Bosnia-Herz. from 2013 to 2022.

Bosnia-Herz. Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
GDP (USD bn) 19.1 21.1 20.9 20.7 24.1
GDP per capita (USD) 5,445 6,030 5,990 5,923 6,911
GDP (EUR bn) 16.9 17.9 18.7 18.1 20.4
GDP per capita (EUR) 4,829 5,111 5,351 5,196 5,847
GDP (BAM bn) 33.1 34.9 36.5 35.4 39.8
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 5.0 5.6 4.6 -3.0 12.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.8 4.6 2.3 -3.3 7.1
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 3.1 2.9 2.9 -3.7 7.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.1 2.6 2.3 -3.5 4.0
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.4 2.2 1.0 1.5 2.9
Total Investment (ann. var. %) 11.4 4.4 6.4 -8.5 22.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 11.8 7.3 0.5 -15.8 24.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.7 3.9 1.3 -13.4 20.5
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.2 1.7 -5.4 -6.5 9.6
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 38.4 36.0 33.1 33.8 32.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.8 1.6 1.4 -4.6 0.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 37.9 34.3 32.5 36.5 35.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.8 1.4 0.6 -1.1 2.0
Exchange Rate (BAM per USD, eop) 1.63 1.71 1.74 1.60 1.72
Exchange Rate (BAM per EUR, eop) 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.6 -3.1 -2.5 -3.2 -2.3
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -3.6 -3.8 -4.1 -3.3 -3.7
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 5.7 6.1 5.9 5.4 7.3
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 9.3 9.9 10.0 8.6 11.0
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 17.4 7.6 -3.4 -8.5 35.7
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 12.5 6.0 1.2 -13.4 27.9
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5
International Reserves (EUR bn) 5.4 5.9 6.4 7.1 8.4
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.0 7.2 7.8 9.9 9.1
External Debt (EUR bn) 10.8 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.4
External Debt (% of GDP) 64.1 63.3 60.6 62.5 56.1

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