Bosnia-Herz. External Debt (% of GDP)

Bosnia-Herz. Economic Forecast

Bosnia-Herz. Economic Outlook

After slowing in Q2, annual economic growth seemingly picked up in Q3 amid a cooling inflationary backdrop: Both consumer and producer price pressures softened in the quarter, which contributed to sturdier growth in retail sales and a marginal rebound in industrial output. That said, merchandise exports continued to shrink in Q3 and in October, indicating that external headwinds remained a drag on activity. In other news, in early November, the European Commission recommended that the European Council start accession talks with the country as soon as it meets the Commission’s 14 priorities. While the country only fulfills two requirements at the moment, the chairwoman of the Council of Ministers expects it to meet all of them by end-2023. That said, the recent escalation of judiciary tensions in Republika Srpska poses a concern for EU institutions, boding poorly for accession talks.

Bosnia-Herz. Inflation

Inflation fell to 4.1% in September from 4.7% in August. The decline was driven by softer price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing and utilities, and clothing. In 2024, inflation is set to more than halve from this year’s projected levels amid stabilizing commodity prices.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Bosnia-Herz. from 2013 to 2022.

Bosnia-Herz. Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
GDP (USD bn) 21.1 20.9 20.7 24.2 24.5
GDP per capita (USD) 6,030 5,990 5,948 6,950 7,044
GDP (EUR bn) 17.9 18.7 18.2 20.5 23.3
GDP per capita (EUR) 5,111 5,351 5,218 5,880 6,701
GDP (BAM bn) 34.9 36.5 35.6 40.0 45.5
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 5.6 4.6 -2.6 12.5 13.7
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.6 2.3 -2.9 7.3 3.8
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.9 2.9 -3.7 7.8 1.9
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.6 2.3 -3.5 4.2 1.9
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.2 1.0 1.5 2.9 1.3
Total Investment (ann. var. %) 4.4 6.4 -8.4 22.7 2.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.3 0.5 -14.8 24.6 12.0
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 3.9 1.3 -13.4 20.6 6.2
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.6 -5.5 -6.5 9.7 0.9
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 36.0 33.1 33.8 32.4 30.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.6 1.4 -4.6 0.6 0.9
Public Debt (% of GDP) 33.8 32.1 36.0 34.4 29.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.4 0.6 -1.1 2.0 14.0
Exchange Rate (BAM per USD, eop) 1.71 1.74 1.60 1.72 1.83
Exchange Rate (BAM per EUR, eop) 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -1.0
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.1 -2.5 -3.2 -2.2 -4.3
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -3.8 -4.1 -3.2 -3.7 -5.2
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 5.3 5.2 4.8 6.5 8.4
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 9.2 9.3 8.0 10.2 13.6
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 11.5 -2.3 -7.4 34.9 28.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 7.1 1.1 -13.5 26.7 33.6
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6
International Reserves (EUR bn) 5.9 6.4 7.1 8.4 8.2
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.8 8.3 10.6 9.9 7.3
External Debt (EUR bn) 11.0 11.3 12.2 11.0 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 61.4 60.7 66.9 53.7 -

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