The Atyrau bridge in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

GDP growth gathered steam to 5.1% year on year in January–June (Q1: +5.0%). The mining sector was the primary driver of the acceleration. On the other hand, growth rates in the services and retail trade sectors slightly slowed. Turning to Q3, the economy is projected to lose momentum. In July, the services PMI was below Q2’s average. Moreover, suggesting a possible slowdown in private consumption, average growth in retail sales declined in July in contrast to Q2, despite the recent decrease in inflation. That said, July’s manufacturing PMI was above the Q2 average. In other news, in August, the government told oil firms operating in the Kashagan oil field that it would seek arbitration in a dispute over revenue sharing, potentially boosting the fiscal balance ahead but also perhaps deterring investment.

Kazakhstan Inflation

Inflation cooled to 13.1% in August from July’s 14.0% but remained well above the Central Bank’s 4.0–5.0% target range. As domestic price pressures ease and the base effect strengthens, inflation is expected to continue to decrease during the remainder of the year. Commodity prices are a key factor to watch.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Kazakhstan from 2013 to 2022.

Kazakhstan Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.5 19.7
GDP (USD bn) 179 182 171 197 225
GDP per capita (USD) 9,736 9,745 9,038 10,088 11,390
GDP (EUR bn) 152 162 149 166 214
GDP per capita (EUR) 8,259 8,710 7,915 8,534 10,830
GDP (KZT bn) 61,820 69,533 70,649 83,952 103,766
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 13.7 12.5 1.6 18.8 23.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.1 4.5 -2.5 4.3 3.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 6.1 6.1 -3.7 6.3 2.0
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -14.1 15.5 12.8 -2.4 9.1
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.4 13.8 -0.2 2.6 3.6
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 9.6 2.0 -11.3 2.3 10.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 6.6 14.9 -9.0 -0.3 11.6
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 4.1 3.9 -0.7 3.6 0.9
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 5.7 5.2 -6.2 4.2 -0.9
Wages (ann. var. %) 2.3 9.0 6.3 9.1 7.6
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.3 -1.8 -4.0 -3.0 -2.1
Public Debt (% of GDP) 20.3 19.9 26.4 25.1 23.5
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 7.1 11.0 19.2 24.1 18.0
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 5.3 5.4 7.4 8.5 20.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 6.0 5.3 6.8 8.0 15.0
Base Rate (%, eop) 9.25 9.25 9.00 9.75 16.75
Stock Market (ann. var. of BET %) 7.5 1.6 13.2 37.4 -11.5
Exchange Rate (KZT per USD, eop) 381 383 421 435 463
Exchange Rate (KZT per USD, aop) 345 383 414 427 462
Exchange Rate (KZT per EUR, eop) 439 430 516 495 494
Exchange Rate (KZT per EUR, aop) 407 428 473 504 485
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.8 -7.0 -11.0 -2.6 7.8
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.0 -3.9 -6.4 -1.3 3.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 24.0 18.4 6.0 24.2 35.7
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 59.0 59.5 44.1 65.8 85.4
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 35.0 41.1 38.1 41.6 49.8
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 19.3 0.9 -26.0 49.3 29.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 12.9 17.5 -7.5 9.2 19.7
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 3.9 3.3 3.7 3.3 6.1
International Reserves (USD bn) 30.9 29.0 35.6 34.4 35.1
International Reserves (months of imports) 10.6 8.5 11.2 9.9 8.5
External Debt (USD bn) 163 160 162 166 161
External Debt (% of GDP) 90.8 88.3 94.8 84.2 71.4

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