The Atyrau bridge in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

Cumulative GDP growth accelerated in January–December 2022 from Q1–Q3 due to stronger agricultural, construction and services activity. However, industrial growth declined. Turning to Q1 2023, GDP growth should be resilient thanks to a base effect; last January saw major political unrest dent economic activity. Additionally, high-frequency indicators have painted a positive picture: In January, industrial activity rebounded from Q4’s contraction, while retail activity expanded at its highest rate since April 2021. In the same month, oil production reached its highest level since October 2019. Less positively, the services PMI was below the expansionary mark in February and at a 13-month-low, likely because of power outages in the month. This points to dampened private consumption and investment activity in the quarter.

Kazakhstan Inflation

Inflation came in at a more than 25-year high of 21.3% in February (January: 20.7%), moving further above the Central Bank’s 4.0–6.0% target range. Restrictive monetary policy, declining commodity prices and slowing inflation expectations should allow inflation to ease throughout 2023. However, increased government spending and commodity price swings are upside risks.

Kazakhstan Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.1
GDP (USD bn) 167 179 182 171 197
GDP per capita (USD) 9 8 9 8 10
GDP (EUR bn) 147 152 162 149 166
GDP per capita (EUR) 7 7 8 7 8
GDP (KZT bn) 54 61 69 70 83
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 15.8 13.7 12.5 1.6 18.8
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.1 4.1 4.5 -2.5 4.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.5 6.1 6.1 -3.7 5.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.1 -14.1 15.5 12.8 -1.1
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 4.5 5.4 13.8 -0.2 2.6
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 8.0 9.6 2.0 -11.3 2.0
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.0 6.6 14.9 -9.0 -2.7
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 6.3 4.1 3.9 -0.7 3.6
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 5.7 5.7 5.2 -6.2 4.2
Wages (ann. var. %) -2.1 2.3 8.5 7.3 8.3
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.5 -1.2 -1.9 -3.1 -3.0
Public Debt (% of GDP) 19.9 20.3 19.9 26.4 25.1
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 7.5 7.1 11.0 19.2 24.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 7.1 5.3 5.4 7.4 8.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 7.4 6.0 5.3 6.8 8.0
Base Rate (%, eop) 10.25 9.25 9.25 9.00 9.75
Stock Market (ann. var. of BET %) 59.3 7.5 1.7 13.2 37.4
Exchange Rate (KZT per USD, eop) 332.7 381.0 382.9 421.1 434.8
Exchange Rate (KZT per USD, aop) 326.2 345.2 383.0 414.1 426.7
Exchange Rate (KZT per EUR, eop) 399.6 439.0 429.6 515.6 494.5
Exchange Rate (KZT per EUR, aop) 368.8 406.9 428.5 472.9 504.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -5 0 -7 -6 -6
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.1 -0.1 -4.0 -3.8 -2.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 17 26 18 10 21
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 47 60 58 47 60
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 31 34 40 37 40
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 33.3 26.5 -2.8 -18.7 27.5
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 16.5 12.0 16.9 -7.5 7.1
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 5 4 3 4 3
International Reserves (USD bn) 31 31 29 36 34
International Reserves (months of imports) 12.2 10.8 8.7 11.6 10.4
External Debt (USD bn) 169 163 160 162 166
External Debt (% of GDP) 101.3 90.8 88.3 95.0 84.5

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