The Atyrau bridge in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

Economic growth accelerated to 4.9% in Q1 2023 compared to 3.3% in 2022. The acceleration was driven in part by a base effect—a large demonstration stifled domestic demand in January 2022. Looking at a breakdown by sector, industrial output rose more sharply, particularly in manufacturing, construction and mining, as did services output, amid stronger transport and retail production. That said, growth of agricultural output decelerated sharply. Turning to Q2, GDP growth should slow somewhat from the high reading seen in Q1. Nevertheless, available data has been upbeat: In April compared to Q1, the economic activity index rose more quickly and industrial output gained speed, while in April–May average inflation dwindled to its lowest reading since Q2 2022. This, along with the Central Bank keeping interest steady in the quarter thus far, bodes well for domestic demand.

Kazakhstan Inflation

Inflation came in at 15.9% in May, down from 16.8% in April but still well above the Central Bank’s 4.0–6.0% target range. Slowing domestic inflationary pressures and declining commodity prices should push inflation down further throughout the year. That said, increased government spending and faster-than-expected monetary loosening are upside risks.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Kazakhstan from 2013 to 2022.

Kazakhstan Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.5
GDP (USD bn) 167 179 182 171 197
GDP per capita (USD) 9,180 9,736 9,745 9,038 10,088
GDP (EUR bn) 147 152 162 149 166
GDP per capita (EUR) 8,120 8,259 8,710 7,915 8,534
GDP (KZT bn) 54,379 61,820 69,533 70,649 83,952
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 15.8 13.7 12.5 1.6 18.8
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.1 4.1 4.5 -2.5 4.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.5 6.1 6.1 -3.7 6.3
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.1 -14.1 15.5 12.8 -2.4
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 4.5 5.4 13.8 -0.2 2.6
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 8.0 9.6 2.0 -11.3 2.3
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.0 6.6 14.9 -9.0 -0.3
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 6.3 4.1 3.9 -0.7 3.6
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 5.7 5.7 5.2 -6.2 4.2
Wages (ann. var. %) -2.1 2.3 9.0 6.3 9.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.7 -1.3 -1.8 -4.0 -3.0
Public Debt (% of GDP) 19.9 20.3 19.9 26.4 25.1
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 7.5 7.1 11.0 19.2 24.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 7.1 5.3 5.4 7.4 8.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 7.4 6.0 5.3 6.8 8.0
Base Rate (%, eop) 10.25 9.25 9.25 9.00 9.75
Stock Market (ann. var. of BET %) 59.3 7.5 1.7 13.2 37.4
Exchange Rate (KZT per USD, eop) 333 381 383 421 435
Exchange Rate (KZT per USD, aop) 326.2 345.2 383.0 414.1 426.7
Exchange Rate (KZT per EUR, eop) 400 439 430 516 495
Exchange Rate (KZT per EUR, aop) 368.8 406.9 428.5 472.9 504.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -3 -2 -7 -11 -3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.1 -1.0 -3.9 -6.4 -1.3
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 18.5 24.0 18.4 6.0 24.2
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 49 59 60 44 66
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 31 35 41 38 42
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 33.6 19.3 0.9 -26.0 49.3
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 16.8 12.9 17.5 -7.5 9.2
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 5 4 3 4 3
International Reserves (USD bn) 31 31 29 36 34
International Reserves (months of imports) 12.0 10.6 8.5 11.2 9.9
External Debt (USD bn) 169 163 160 162 166
External Debt (% of GDP) 101.3 90.8 88.3 94.8 84.2

Free Sample Report

Interested in Kazakhstan economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest