Economy gains momentum in Q3

Growth improves: A second national accounts release confirmed that the Kazakh economy gained steam in Q3, as annual GDP growth rose to 4.1% in January–September from January–June’s 3.2% expansion. That said, the reading fell short of the 4.9% increase recorded in January–September 2023.

Stronger domestic demand fuels upturn: Domestically, private spending remained at the helm of the upturn. Household consumption accelerated to 6.7% in January–September from H1’s 5.6% expansion, likely buoyed by faster real wage growth in Q3 than in H1. Moreover, fixed investment returned to growth in Q3, rising 2.2% in January–September (H2: -0.4% yoy). Meanwhile, government consumption slid at a softer pace of 1.2% in January–September (H2: -5.2% yoy). On the external front, exports of goods and services slowed to a halt in January–September after increasing 1.2% in H1. Conversely, imports of goods and services declined at a more moderate rate of 1.3% in the same nine-month period (H2: -3.4% yoy).

Economy to strengthen ahead: Our panelists expect the economy to have gained traction at the tail end of 2024, and have penciled in a further acceleration for Q1 2025. The economy should then expand at a similar rate to Q1 2025 through Q4 2025; as a result, our Consensus is for GDP growth to outpace 2024 levels this year. This will come on the back of both domestic and external demand strengthening. Sanctions are a downside risk, while the health of the Chinese, EU and U.S. economies is a two-sided risk.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Kazakhstani exports projections for the next ten years from a panel of 8 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable exports forecast available for Kazakhstani exports.

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