Hong Kong Economic Outlook
Financial hub:
Hong Kong is one of the world's most important financial centers, with a highly open, trade-dependent economy and a robust regulatory framework. It serves as a gateway between China and global markets, benefiting from low taxes, free trade policies, and a world-class financial sector. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is one of the largest in the world, and the city's banking system is well-capitalized. Despite political changes in recent years, Hong Kong retains a separate legal and economic system under the “One Country, Two Systems” framework—though its autonomy has weakened.
Trade and logistics:Hong Kong has long thrived as a global logistics and trade hub due to its strategic location and world-class port facilities. It ranks among the busiest container ports globally and maintains one of the highest trade-to-GDP ratios in the world. However, competition from mainland Chinese ports—particularly Shenzhen and Shanghai—has eroded Hong Kong’s relative importance in global trade. The city’s extensive free trade agreements, including its status as a separate customs territory under the WTO, remain key advantages.
Economic challenges:Hong Kong's economy faces headwinds from geopolitical uncertainties, declining foreign investment due to concerns over its legal and political environment, and the slowdown in China’s economy. The Covid-19 pandemic hit the city hard, with prolonged restrictions stifling tourism and business activity. Additionally, the ongoing emigration of skilled workers and rising living costs pose longer-term structural risks. The property market remains a double-edged sword—high real estate prices support government revenues but create affordability issues and economic volatility.
Hong Kong's economic outlook:The economy of Hong Kong is expected to remain heavily dependent on financial services, trade, and tourism, though diversification efforts into innovation and technology are underway. Growth is likely to be moderate in the coming years as China’s economic deceleration, capital outflows, and geopolitical shifts weigh on business sentiment. However, Hong Kong’s strategic location, deep capital markets, and low-tax regime should keep it relevant as a global business hub—provided it can maintain investor confidence.
Hong Kong's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 381 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 50,591 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 1.3% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 91% of overall GDP, manufacturing 1%, other industrial activity 8%, and agriculture 0%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 70% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 13%, fixed investment 16%, and net exports 1%.International trade
In 2021, manufactured products made up 89% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 0%, food 2%, ores and metals 2% and agricultural raw materials 0%, with other categories accounting for 7% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 83% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 2%, food 4%, ores and metals 1% and agricultural raw materials 0%, with other goods accounting for 10% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 583 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 632 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 1.3% in the decade to 2024. To read more about GDP growth in Hong Kong, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Hong Kong's fiscal surplus averaged 0.7% of GDP in the decade to 2022. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 3.6% in the decade to 2024. For more information on Hong Kong's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 2.2% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Hong Kong inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Hong Kong's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 4.75%, up from 0.50% a decade earlier. See our Hong Kong monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the Hong Kong dollar stayed on the same level vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the Hong Kong dollar, click here.
Economic situation in Hong Kong
In Q4, GDP saw an annual increase of 2.4%, up from the 1.9% growth recorded in Q3. The primary force behind this expansion was the surge in services exports. In contrast, private consumption shrank for the third consecutive period, as local residents increasingly chose to spend in mainland China instead of Hong Kong, influenced by a robust domestic currency and enhanced cross-border transport connections. Turning to Q1, our panelists are projecting a slowdown in year-on-year economic growth relative to Q4. Available data is supportive of this forecast: In January–February, tourist arrivals growth slowed from Q4, while retail sales fell further in January despite a boost from the Lunar New Year festival. In other news, the government recently published its budget for the fiscal year starting in April 2025; the budget aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 2.0% of GDP from 2.7% in FY 2024.Hong Kong Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.51 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 28 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Hong Kong in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 51 economic indicators for Hong Kong from a panel of 28 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Hong Kong economy. To download a sample report on the Hong Kong's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.