Hong Kong skyline from above

Hong Kong GDP

Hong Kong GDP

Economic Growth in Hong Kong

The economy of Hong Kong recorded an average real GDP growth rate of 1.2% in the decade to 2022, below the 4.4% average for the Asia-Pacific region. In 2022, the real GDP growth was -3.5%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Hong Kong GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Hong Kong from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Census and Statistics Deptartment Hong Kong.

Hong Kong GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.8 -1.7 -6.5 6.5 -3.7
GDP (USD bn) 362 363 345 369 359
GDP (HKD bn) 2,835 2,845 2,676 2,868 2,809
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.6 0.3 -5.9 7.2 -2.1

Economy records fastest annual growth since Q4 2021 in the fourth quarter

GDP growth accelerated to 4.3% year on year in the fourth quarter, from 4.1% in the third quarter, with the expansion underpinned by private spending and tourism. Q4's reading marked a two-year high, but undershot market expectations. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth accelerated to 0.5% in Q4, compared to the previous period's 0.3% growth. Q4's reading marked the best result since Q1. Over 2023 as a whole, GDP growth was 3.2%, much weaker than projected by the government early in the year.

Household spending growth waned to 3.5% year-on-year in Q4 compared to a 6.2% expansion in Q3. Government spending contracted at a more pronounced pace of 5.2% in Q4 (Q3: -4.0% yoy), amid fiscal consolidation efforts. Meanwhile, fixed investment growth moderated to 15.7% in Q4, compared to 21.8% in the prior quarter. Exports of services growth fell to 22.1% in Q4 (Q3: +23.2% yoy). In addition, imports of services growth moderated to 27.4% in Q4 (Q3: +28.9% yoy). In contrast, exports and imports of goods returned to expansion following contractions in Q1–Q3, likely reflecting improved global electronics demand.

Looking ahead, our Consensus is for GDP growth to improve in sequential terms in Q1 2024, even though year-on-year growth will ebb due to a higher base of comparison.

On the outlook, United Overseas Bank’s Ho Woei Chen said: “Overall, we see the stabilisation of China’s economy and the start of rate cuts by major central banks in 2H24 which eases the financial conditions, as the key positive drivers of Hong Kong’s economic outlook this year while geopolitical tensions (US-China relation, Middle-East etc.), prolonged weakness in the domestic property market, and weaker global demand including from China are the key downside risks.” DBS analysts said: “The recovery ahead will remain modest based on our in-house projection for the Fed to cut rates by 100bps in 2H24. 1M and 3M-HIBORs are likely to stay above 4% this year. Furthermore, a softening Mainland growth momentum is expected to drag Hong Kong’s economic performance.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Hong Kong GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 29 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Hong Kong GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Hong Kong GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Hong Kong GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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