The skyline in Kenya

Kenya Economic Forecast

Kenya Economic Outlook

The economy likely decelerated in Q2 compared to the preceding quarter. The lower average PMI in Q2 compared to Q1 pointed to a faster deterioration in private-sector conditions, while a slight year-on-year fall in remittances likely capped private spending. In Q3, economic momentum is expected to be steady. On the one hand, receding price pressures and sharp growth in annual remittances in July–August likely supported consumption. On the other hand, recent tax hikes and protests likely hurt purchasing power and investment, respectively. Additionally, in July–August, the PMI remained at levels similar to those in Q2. In other news, in early September, the Supreme Court confirmed the constitutionality of the government’s 2023 finance law, maintaining the housing levy and the doubling of the fuel VAT, which have been in place since late July.

Kenya Inflation

Inflation came in at 6.7% in August (July: 7.3%) on softer price pressures for food and housing. In 2023, inflation will likely rise above 2022’s average due to currency devaluation, tax hikes, and last year’s removal of the petrol subsidy. Key factors to monitor include potential weather events, the potential reversal of some tax hikes and oil prices.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Kenya from 2013 to 2022.

Kenya Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 46.5 47.6 48.7 49.8 50.9
GDP (USD bn) 92.2 100.4 100.6 109.7 114.3
GDP per capita (USD) 1,983 2,109 2,066 2,202 2,245
GDP (KES bn) 9,340 10,238 10,715 12,028 13,483
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 10.1 9.6 4.7 12.2 12.1
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 5.6 5.1 -0.3 7.6 4.8
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 3.7 5.1 -0.9 7.5 -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 5.1 5.0 -2.6 6.4 -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 7.0 5.6 3.0 5.7 -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -0.4 4.5 2.5 10.9 -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 6.8 -3.2 -8.8 12.9 -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.4 1.8 -9.2 18.9 -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.8 4.0 3.3 7.5 3.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -6.9 -7.4 -8.1 -7.1 -6.0
Public Debt (% of GDP) 56.4 59.1 67.8 67.0 67.9
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 8.0 5.4 11.9 5.6 5.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 5.7 7.2 5.6 5.7 9.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.7 5.2 5.4 6.1 7.7
Central Bank Rate (%, eop) 9.00 8.50 7.00 7.00 8.75
Stock Market (ann. var. of NSE %) -23.7 -6.3 -29.6 1.8 -11.9
Exchange Rate (KES per USD, eop) 102 101 109 113 123
Exchange Rate (KES per USD, aop) 101 102 107 110 118
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -4.3 -5.5 -4.6 -6.0 -5.8
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.7 -5.5 -4.6 -5.5 -5.1
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -10.2 -10.7 -8.4 -11.4 -11.7
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 6.1 5.9 6.1 6.7 7.4
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 16.3 16.6 14.5 18.2 19.1
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 5.4 -3.8 3.2 11.0 10.3
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 2.2 1.3 -12.4 25.4 5.3
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.8
International Reserves (USD bn) 8.2 9.1 8.3 9.5 8.0
International Reserves (months of imports) 6.0 6.6 6.9 6.3 5.0
External Debt (USD bn) 31.4 35.0 38.0 41.2 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 34.1 34.8 37.8 37.6 -

Free Sample Report

Interested in Kenya economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest