A river that runs through the marsh in Botswana

Botswana Economic Forecast

Botswana Economic Outlook

In Q2, annual GDP growth dipped to 3.4% after a revised 5.5% expansion in Q1. The mining, public administration, construction, accommodation and food services and wholesale and retail sectors were the primary drivers of growth. Moving into Q3, the economy likely fared well. Q3 inflation was around a third of the Q2 level, likely bolstering household consumption. Moreover, robust credit growth in July and August likely supported domestic demand. However, a drop in the prices of diamonds—the nation’s key export—probably restrained the external sector. In other news, on 27 October, Moody’s affirmed Botswana’s credit rating at ‘A3’, maintaining a stable outlook due to its low public debt levels and robust institutions. In the short term, this decision is likely to boost investor confidence.

Botswana Inflation

Inflation rose to 3.2% in September from 1.2% in August. Inflation should average below this year’s level in 2024 due to reduced commodity prices. Disruption to agricultural output due to El Niño is an upside risk, while price swings in commodities and unforeseen adjustments in government-set prices are risks to the outlook in both directions.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Botswana from 2013 to 2022.

Botswana Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6
GDP (USD bn) 17.0 16.7 15.0 18.7 20.3
GDP per capita (USD) 6,948 6,689 5,880 7,237 7,735
GDP (BWP bn) 174 180 171 208 252
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 4.2 3.6 -4.7 21.2 21.2
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.2 3.0 -8.7 11.9 5.8
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 5.2 7.1 -0.3 2.3 2.9
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 5.4 3.1 2.3 2.3 4.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.2 10.3 4.0 4.0 3.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 8.6 10.2 -9.2 0.3 -0.6
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 11.9 -8.8 -18.6 31.7 -5.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 15.9 11.6 5.0 2.3 -11.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 19.8 20.1 21.0 21.2 20.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.0 -8.5 -10.9 -2.4 0.0
Public Debt (% of GDP) 14.9 16.5 18.7 18.7 18.0
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 8.3 8.0 5.9 5.0 6.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.5 2.2 2.2 8.7 12.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.2 2.8 1.9 6.7 12.2
Bank Rate (%, eop) 5.00 4.75 3.75 3.75 2.65
Exchange Rate (BWP per USD, eop) 10.73 10.58 10.80 11.76 12.75
Exchange Rate (BWP per USD, aop) 10.20 10.76 11.45 11.09 12.38
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.1 -1.2 -1.5 -0.3 0.6
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.4 -6.9 -10.3 -1.4 2.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.5 -1.1 -2.0 -0.7 0.5
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 6.6 5.3 4.3 7.4 8.3
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 6.1 6.3 6.3 8.1 7.7
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 10.5 -20.2 -18.3 72.8 11.6
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 18.5 3.6 -1.0 28.9 -4.2
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.2
International Reserves (USD bn) 6.7 6.2 4.9 4.8 4.3
International Reserves (months of imports) 13.1 11.7 9.5 7.1 6.6
External Debt (USD bn) 1.8 1.6 1.6 2.0 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 10.5 9.4 10.7 10.6 -

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