Skyline of Bratislava, Slovakia

Slovakia Economic Forecast

Slovakia Economic Outlook

GDP was up 1.5% year on year in Q2 (Q1: +1.0% yoy). Growth in the quarter therefore exceeded the Euro area average, but remained below the 2.3% average growth seen in the past decade. Exports rebounded, aided by strong automobile production amid easing supply bottlenecks. Less positively, private spending fell more than in the prior quarter: Inflation likely continued to outpace wage growth in Q2, weighing on household purchasing power amid lower levels of savings compared to prior quarters. In other news, former Prime Minister Robert Fico has maintained his lead in opinion polls for the 30 September general elections. If elected, Fico would likely spend heavily to support families, pensioners and workers, probably straining the fiscal balance but boosting domestic demand.

Slovakia Inflation

Harmonized inflation moderated to 9.6% in August (July: 10.3%) due to lower price pressures for food. Average inflation should moderate further for the rest of 2023 before cooling to slightly more than double the ECB’s 2.0% target in 2024. Rising commodity prices are an upside risk, while weaker-than-expected demand is a downside risk.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Slovakia from 2013 to 2022.

Slovakia Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4
GDP (USD bn) 106 106 107 119 115
GDP per capita (USD) 19,482 19,394 19,517 21,720 21,206
GDP (EUR bn) 89.9 94.4 93.4 100.3 109.7
GDP per capita (EUR) 16,512 17,326 17,120 18,374 20,175
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.1 5.1 -1.0 7.4 9.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.0 2.5 -3.3 4.9 1.7
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 3.7 3.9 -5.1 5.9 3.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.2 2.6 -1.1 2.7 5.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.5 4.5 -0.6 4.2 -4.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.8 6.7 -10.9 3.5 5.9
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 5.1 0.8 -6.3 10.9 2.3
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.8 2.2 -8.1 12.1 4.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 6.0 0.8 -8.5 10.3 -3.9
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 3.6 -1.3 -1.1 1.3 4.2
Wages (ann. var. %) 6.2 7.8 3.8 6.8 7.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.5 5.7 6.7 6.8 6.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.0 -1.2 -5.4 -5.4 -2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP) 49.4 48.0 58.9 61.0 57.8
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 6.5 8.9 9.1 7.6 1.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.9 3.0 1.6 5.8 15.4
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, eop) 1.9 3.2 1.6 5.1 15.0
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) 2.5 2.8 2.0 2.8 12.1
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.6 1.9 -0.4 6.8 29.3
ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50
ECB Overnight Deposit Rate (%, eop) -0.40 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 2.00
3-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) -0.31 -0.38 -0.55 -0.57 2.13
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 0.91 0.14 -0.50 0.12 3.64
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.14 1.12 1.22 1.14 1.07
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.18 1.12 1.14 1.18 1.05
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -2.0 -3.2 0.5 -2.5 -8.9
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -3.3 0.6 -2.5 -8.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -0.2 -1.1 1.0 -0.5 -6.6
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 75.1 75.5 70.0 81.3 96.5
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 75.4 76.7 69.0 81.8 103.2
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 6.6 0.5 -7.3 16.1 18.7
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 7.8 1.7 -10.0 18.6 26.1
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 1.5 2.2 -2.0 0.1 2.7

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