Moldova

Moldova Economic Forecast

Moldova Economic Outlook

Activity declined sharply in Q3 last year due to downturns in private consumption, investment and net exports. Turning to Q4, the economy likely remained weak. Activity suffered due to power shortages, which led to a more pronounced decline in industrial production in Q4 than in Q3. Moreover, export growth was muted, and inflation above 30% worsened the cost-of-living crisis. In Q1 of this year, moderating inflation and a recent rate cut from the Central Bank bode well for activity. Significant aid from Western countries and new financing from the IMF and EBRD, along with the recent electricity supply deal with Transnistria’s Cuciurgan power plant, do as well. In politics, the government resigned on 10 February, citing a lack of support. The new cabinet remains committed to deepening ties with the West and will focus on security amid the significant worsening of relations with Russia.

Moldova Inflation

Inflation decelerated to 27.3% in January (December: 30.2%). Despite likely remaining in double digits this year, price pressures are to lose significant steam ahead due to a strong base effect and lower commodity prices. The main upside risks remain the continued fallout from the war in Ukraine and the permanent cessation of Russian gas imports.

Moldova Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6
GDP (USD bn) 8.2 11.3 12.0 11.6 13.7
GDP per capita (USD) 2 4 4 4 5
GDP (EUR bn) 7.2 9.6 10.7 10.2 11.6
GDP per capita (EUR) 2 3 3 3 4
GDP (MDL bn) 150 190 210 200 242
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 11.8 26.4 10.6 -4.9 21.1
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.2 4.1 3.6 -8.3 13.9
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.4 3.7 2.0 -5.5 12.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.0 3.0 5.1 3.8 3.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.7 -0.9 -1.5 -5.3 -1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP) 34.9 31.8 28.8 36.6 33.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 6.6 3.0 4.8 3.8 5.1
Base Rate (%, eop) 6.50 6.50 5.50 2.65 6.50
Exchange Rate (MDL per USD, eop) 17.1 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.8
Exchange Rate (MDL per USD, aop) 18.4 16.8 17.5 17.2 17.6
Exchange Rate (MDL per EUR, eop) 20.5 19.5 19.2 20.9 20.2
Exchange Rate (MDL per EUR, aop) 20.8 19.8 19.6 19.7 20.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.6 -1.2 -1.1 -0.9 -1.7
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -6.8 -10.7 -9.2 -7.7 -12.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -2.6 -3.3 -3.3 -3.1 -4.2
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.6
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 4.4 5.3 5.4 5.0 6.8
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 19.8 5.8 7.2 -8.2 31.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 21.7 19.1 3.0 -7.2 34.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.3
International Reserves (USD bn) 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.8 3.9
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.6 6.8 6.8 9.0 6.9
External Debt (USD bn) 6.8 7.2 7.2 8.1 8.8
External Debt (% of GDP) 83.8 63.6 60.2 70.1 63.9

Free Sample Report

Interested in Moldova economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest