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Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

Annual GDP growth decelerated in Q1, dented by a sharper contraction in the oil sector and weaker growth in the agricultural, industrial and services sectors. In Q2, the economy likely picked up steam, buttressed by lower inflation and higher oil output than in the prior quarter. Nonetheless, an over 60% depreciation of the kwanza in the period reignited price pressures towards the end of Q2 and likely distorted the economy at large. Shifting to Q3, activity should remain healthy thanks to the stabilization of the kwanza; higher oil output and prices in recent months relative to early 2023 boosted international reserves, enabling the Central Bank to resume interventions in the foreign-exchange market to support the currency. Additionally, in mid-July, the government announced a series of stimulus measures, including VAT cuts and the simplification of administrative procedures.

Angola Inflation

Inflation increased to 13.6% in August from 12.1% in July. Sustained kwanza weakness and the phasing out of fuel subsidies continued to drive inflation upwards. Inflation is seen remaining elevated in the coming months. Key factors to monitor are the path of monetary policy, FX interventions and the strength of the kwanza.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Angola from 2013 to 2022.

Angola Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 31.3 32.4 33.4 34.5 35.7
GDP (USD bn) 102.0 82.8 55.0 71.4 115.9
GDP per capita (USD) 3,263 2,560 1,644 2,069 3,246
GDP (AOA bn) 25,628 30,330 31,701 44,538 53,375
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 26.5 18.3 4.5 40.5 19.8
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -1.3 -0.7 -5.6 1.2 3.0
Economic Growth (GDP non-Oil, ann. var. %) 3.2 2.2 -5.1 6.8 4.0
Economic Growth (GDP Oil, ann. var. %) -9.3 -6.5 -6.7 -11.5 0.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -3.4 -6.2 -3.3 6.4 5.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -1.7 5.1 -14.0 -6.4 -1.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 0.0 0.0 -15.5 9.2 -0.8
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -7.6 -17.4 -6.2 -10.7 0.7
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -16.0 -25.0 -19.6 -18.3 13.8
Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 1.51 1.40 1.26 1.12 1.14
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 9.5 9.5 10.4 10.4 10.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.3 0.8 -1.9 3.8 1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 93.0 113.6 138.9 86.9 67.1
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 20.4 30.0 24.5 -9.3 -1.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 18.6 16.9 25.1 27.0 13.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 19.6 17.1 22.3 25.8 21.4
BNA Basic Reference Rate (%, eop) 16.50 15.50 15.50 20.00 19.50
Exchange Rate (AOA per USD, eop) 308 482 650 555 504
Exchange Rate (AOA per USD, aop) 251 366 577 624 460
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 7.4 5.1 0.9 8.4 11.8
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 7.3 6.2 1.6 11.8 10.1
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 25.0 20.6 11.4 21.8 32.8
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 40.8 34.7 20.9 33.6 50.0
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 15.8 14.1 9.5 11.8 17.3
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 17.8 -14.8 -39.7 60.4 49.0
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 15.8 14.1 9.5 11.8 17.3
Brent Oil Price (USD per barrel, aop) 71.6 64.1 43.3 70.9 98.8
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) -5.7 -4.1 -1.9 -4.2 -
International Reserves (USD bn) 16.2 17.2 14.9 15.5 14.7
International Reserves (months of imports) 12.3 14.6 18.7 15.8 10.2
External Debt (USD bn) 63.8 64.8 67.5 67.3 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 62.5 78.2 122.9 94.2 -

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