Austria Economic Outlook
GDP contracted by 0.7% quarter on quarter in Q4, contrasting the 0.2% expansion in the preceding quarter. Household consumption contracted faster than in Q3, weighed on by double-digit inflation and downbeat consumer confidence. In contrast, public spending, fixed investment, exports and imports grew in the last quarter of the year. Looking at Q1 2023, our panelists anticipate GDP to decrease at a softer pace, with significant gas storage and mild temperatures having averted a gas supply crisis. In January–February, the manufacturing PMI averaged higher than in Q4, while in January both business and consumer sentiment improved notably. However, elevated interest rates and double-digit inflation will be restricting activity.
Austria Inflation
Harmonized inflation rose to 11.5% in January from 10.5% in December as a result of broad-based higher price pressures across subindices. Inflation will decline later this year due to the lagged effects of interest rate hikes and the electricity price cap. Gas disruptions are an upside risk to the inflation outlook.