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Belarus Economic Forecast

Belarus Economic Outlook

The economy should be expanding robustly in Q3: Cumulative GDP rose 2.9% year on year in January–July (January–June: +2.0% yoy). Agricultural output rebounded, and manufacturing and construction production grew faster. Strengthening trade growth and cooling inflation in July further point to robust private spending. In geopolitics, after troops from the Russian paramilitary group Wagner reportedly moved into the country in July and began military exercises near its western border, Poland unveiled plans to send about 10,000 more troops to the frontier, and Lithuania closed two of its six border passes with Belarus. On 28 August, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland said they would fully shut their borders with Belarus if a critical incident threatened national security or in the case of mass emigration from Belarus. These events bode ill for regional security and trade.

Belarus Inflation

Inflation fell to 2.5% in July (June: 2.7%) despite higher food price growth. Our panel sees average price pressures cooling in 2023 compared to last year on a high base effect, strict price controls and subdued economic activity. Sharper-than-expected interest rate cuts and the emergence of parallel markets arising from anti-inflationary measures pose upside risks.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Belarus from 2013 to 2022.

Belarus Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.3
GDP (USD bn) 60.0 64.5 61.4 69.8 67.8
GDP per capita (USD) 6,350 6,841 6,525 7,465 7,283
GDP (EUR bn) 50.8 57.6 53.7 59.0 64.1
GDP per capita (EUR) 5,381 6,110 5,705 6,309 6,893
GDP (BYN bn) 122 135 150 177 191
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 15.7 10.1 11.1 18.1 8.2
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.1 1.4 -0.7 2.4 -4.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 8.0 5.1 -1.5 4.6 -0.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.4 0.5 -1.2 -1.1 -0.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 4.4 6.2 -6.9 -5.1 -17.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 3.8 1.0 -3.7 9.5 -20.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.3 5.1 -7.4 5.8 -18.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 5.7 1.0 -0.7 6.5 -5.4
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 8.3 4.5 2.1 1.6 -3.7
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.8 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.8 0.9 -2.9 -1.7 -4.9
Public Debt (% of GDP) 47.5 41.0 47.5 41.2 39.8
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 20.1 27.4 -3.3 19.8 25.0
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 5.6 4.7 7.3 10.0 12.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.9 5.6 5.5 9.5 15.2
Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 10.00 9.00 7.75 9.25 12.00
Exchange Rate (BYN per USD, eop) 2.16 2.10 2.58 2.55 2.53
Exchange Rate (BYN per USD, aop) 2.04 2.09 2.44 2.53 2.82
Exchange Rate (BYN per EUR, eop) 2.46 2.36 3.16 2.90 2.69
Exchange Rate (BYN per EUR, aop) 2.41 2.34 2.79 3.00 2.98
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.0 -1.2 -0.2 2.2 2.5
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.0 -1.9 -0.3 3.1 3.7
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -2.5 -4.2 -1.9 -0.7 0.2
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 33.4 32.3 28.4 39.1 37.6
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 35.9 36.5 30.2 39.8 37.4
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 16.5 -3.3 -12.3 37.9 -4.0
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 13.5 1.7 -17.2 31.5 -6.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.6
International Reserves (USD bn) 7.4 9.2 7.4 8.5 7.8
International Reserves (months of imports) 2.5 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.5
External Debt (USD bn) 39.3 40.7 42.0 42.0 39.7
External Debt (% of GDP) 65.5 63.1 68.5 60.1 58.7

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