Belarus Industrial Production (ann. var. %)

Industrial Production in Belarus

In January–April, monthly GDP declined by 0.6%, the strongest cumulative rate in over a year (January–March: -2.1%). Merchandise exports growth skyrocketed to nearly 50% in March. Moreover, rebounding industrial output in February–April likely aided the economy, as did slowing inflation, which eased to the lowest rate since February 2020 in April. Recovering wage growth in March–April will have further boosted household spending: Retail sales grew for the first time in 11 months in April. Meanwhile, on 31 May, the key policy rate was cut to the lowest level since the start of the war in Ukraine, easing some of the pressure on spending and investment. In other news, Russia and Belarus signed a formal agreement in late May to deploy Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, which could provoke further Western sanctions and economic isolation.