Colorful city in Guatemala

Guatemala Economic Forecast

Guatemala Economic Outlook

In Q2, the economy likely expanded at a robust rate. The average annual expansion in economic activity was broadly unchanged in the quarter from Q1’s average. Household consumption should have benefited from lower inflation and strong remittance inflows. That said, exports fell more year on year in April–June than in Q1. In politics, on 20 August, Bernardo Arévalo won the presidential election. However, days afterward, Arévalo’s party, Seed Movement, was suspended by the government. After backlash from the Organization of American States, the electoral tribunal lifted the suspension in early September—but only until 31 October. If Arévalo’s party is suspended again, his legislators may be forced to sit as independents, diminishing his influence in Congress. Nevertheless, Arévalo is set to assume office on 14 January with macroeconomic policies aligning with current ones.

Guatemala Inflation

Inflation was stable at July’s 4.5% in August. Our panel expects a moderation in average inflation in the current year compared to the previous one due to softer demand and improved international supply chains. Lower-than-expected rains due to El Niño are an upward risk, as is the persistence of recent increases in energy commodities prices.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Guatemala from 2013 to 2022.

Guatemala Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.7
GDP (USD bn) 73.7 77.2 77.7 86.0 95.0
GDP per capita (USD) 4,269 4,380 4,323 4,691 5,076
GDP (GTQ bn) 551 594 600 666 736
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 4.7 7.7 1.0 10.9 10.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.4 4.0 -1.8 8.0 4.1
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.5 4.7 -1.6 8.5 4.2
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 7.6 2.3 1.0 4.9 7.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 4.5 8.8 -4.5 19.8 3.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.4 0.2 -7.5 10.3 7.0
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 3.9 4.9 -5.8 19.5 4.4
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.8 3.9 -0.8 8.5 4.5
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.9 -2.2 -4.9 -1.2 -1.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 26.1 26.5 31.4 30.8 29.0
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 9.4 9.8 18.7 11.6 11.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.3 3.4 4.8 3.1 9.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.8 3.7 3.2 4.3 6.9
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 3.0 3.1 2.3 3.2 5.0
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 2.75 2.75 1.75 1.75 3.75
Exchange Rate (GTQ per USD, eop) 7.73 7.69 7.79 7.72 7.85
Exchange Rate (GTQ per USD, aop) 7.48 7.70 7.72 7.74 7.75
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.6 1.8 3.9 1.9 1.3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.9 2.4 5.1 2.2 1.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -8.0 -8.0 -6.3 -10.9 -14.2
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 9.6 9.9 10.1 12.4 14.3
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 17.6 17.9 16.4 23.3 28.5
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -0.1 2.8 2.1 22.1 15.5
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 7.2 1.5 -8.1 41.7 22.2
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 1.0 1.0 0.9 3.5 1.4
Remittances (USD bn) 9.3 10.5 11.3 15.3 18.0
International Reserves (USD bn) 12.8 14.8 18.5 20.9 20.0
International Reserves (months of imports) 8.7 9.9 13.5 10.8 8.4
External Debt (USD bn) 24.4 24.5 24.9 25.8 23.2
External Debt (% of GDP) 33.1 31.7 32.1 30.0 24.4

Free Sample Report

Interested in Guatemala economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest