Exports in Guatemala
The Guatemalan economy recorded an average growth rate of 1.5% in exports in the decade leading up to 2022. In 2022, exports growth was 7.0%. For more exports information, visit our dedicated page.
Guatemala Exports Chart
Note: This chart displays Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) for Guatemala from 2015 to 2014.
Source: Macrobond.
Guatemala Exports Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) | 0.2 | -7.5 | 10.2 | 7.5 | -2.5 |
Economy decelerates in Q3
Growth slows but remains robust: The economy lost momentum in Q3, growing 3.5% year on year and decelerating from Q2’s near one-year high 3.7% expansion. Still, Q3’s reading remained in line with Guatemala’s pre-pandemic 10-year growth average.
Rebounding public spending fails to stem broad-based slowdown: Domestically, the slowdown was driven by weaker household demand as tight financing conditions likely dented consumer budgets. Private spending growth cooled to 4.8% in Q3 from Q2’s 5.5%, and fixed investment rose 4.4% in the quarter (Q2: +5.8% yoy). More positively, government spending expanded for the first time in a year, posting a 3.0% increase (Q2: -4.6% yoy). On the external front, growth of exports of goods and services decelerated to 3.6% in Q3 (Q2: 4.2% yoy). Meanwhile, growth of imports of goods and services moderated to 8.2% in Q3 (Q2: +10.0% yoy).
Stable growth ahead, though downside risks linger: Our panelists expect the economy to have ended the year on a high note, expanding at the fastest clip in two-and-a-half years. A continued recovery in public spending and faster fixed investment growth likely underpinned the upturn. Moreover, inflation nearly halved from Q3 and remittance inflows gained traction, boding well for household spending. Turning to 2025, our Consensus is for economic growth to hover around 2024 levels, with sharper rises in public spending and exports offsetting slowdowns in private spending and fixed investment. That said, the timing and size of U.S. tariffs under President Trump are key risk factors as the U.S. is Guatemala’s main trading partner and source of remittances.
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Guatemalan exports projections for the next ten years from a panel of 7 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable exports forecast available for Guatemalan exports.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Guatemalan exports projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Guatemalan exports forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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