Russia Economic Outlook
Eastern Europe's powerhouse:
Russia is by far the largest and most populous economy in Eastern Europe, and has close trade ties with many members of the former Soviet bloc. Until the war in Ukraine, it was also a key provider of energy to the EU, though energy flows to the bloc have plummeted since 2022.
Energy superpower:Russia's economy is heavily reliant on its vast natural resources, particularly in energy. It is one of the world's largest producers of oil and natural gas, which are major contributors to its GDP and export earnings. This reliance makes its economy vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices.
A global granary:Agriculture in Russia benefits from vast land resources, with significant production of wheat, barley, and other grains. The sector has seen growth and modernization in recent years, although it is hindered by sometimes adverse climatic conditions and infrastructure limitations.
Dismal demographics:Russia's population has been falling since 2018 amid a low birth rate and limited attractiveness to expats, with the decline accelerating since the outset of the Ukraine war. The population is expected to continue to decline until at least 2028.
War-related disruption:Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, ties with the West—already hurt by Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014—have deteriorated, and Russia has been hit by Western sanctions. Moreover, the war has disrupted economic activity, led to the withdrawal of foreign firms and caused a decline in the population due to high casualties and men fleeing conscription. However, the Russian economy has weathered Western sanctions much better than initially expected, thanks to high energy prices and the nation's ability to find new buyers for its exports, particularly in Asia.
Russia's economic outlook:Economic prospects are muted due to international isolation, corruption and weak demographics. Growth is seen averaging around 1.5% in the long term, well below the Commonwealth of Independent States' average.
Russia's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 2,012 billion in 2023.
Nominal GDP of USD 2,012 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 13,753 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 13,753 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 1.2% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 1.4% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 56.9% of overall GDP, manufacturing 12.4%, other industrial activity 27.4%, and agriculture 3.3%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 49.8% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 18.5%, fixed investment 25.7%, and net exports 6.0%.International trade
In 2021, manufactured products made up 22.1% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 43.1%, food 6.6%, ores and metals 7.4% and agricultural raw materials 2.3%, with other categories accounting for 18.5% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 79.8% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 0.8%, food 10.9%, ores and metals 2.9% and agricultural raw materials 1.0%, with other goods accounting for 4.6% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 433.10 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 300.10 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 1.2% in the decade to 2023. The economy contracted in 2015-2016 due to declining oil prices and the impact of sanctions linked to the annexation of Crimea, recovering slightly thereafter. COVID-19 brought another downturn in 2020, which was followed by the imposition of Western sanctions in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. That said, Russia has performed much better than expected since Ukraine-related sanctions were introduced, thanks to strong government spending on the war effort, fiscal handouts, and the ability to reroute exports to Asia. To read more about GDP growth in Russia, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Russia's fiscal deficit averaged 1.0% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Despite facing sanctions, the pandemic and periods of low oil prices, the government managed to keep fiscal deficits manageable, and even ran budget surpluses in some years. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 4.6% in the decade to 2024. The rate fell to a multi-decade low in 2023, due to emigration, strong domestic demand, population ageing and decline, and mobilization of men for the war in Ukraine. For more information on Russia's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 7.2% in the decade to 2024. The country's inflation rate was significantly influenced by geopolitical tensions, economic sanctions, currency volatility and fluctuations in global commodity prices. Inflation pulled back notably in 2023 though, due to aggressive rate hikes by the Central Bank. Go to our Russia inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Russia's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 21.00%, up from 17.00% a decade earlier. In the run-up to and during the COVID-19 pandemic, rates were reduced to support the economy. By 2022, rates were again increased in response to inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions following war in Ukraine. See our Russia monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the ruble weakened by 45.4% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the ruble, click here.
Economic situation in Russia
War-related spending and investment plus sanction circumvention drove another expectations-defying expansion in 2024, but war fatigue should progressively gnaw at GDP growth in 2025. In January–February, economic activity rose 1.9% (Q4: +3.8% yoy): Industrial output lost traction, recent sanctions hit goods exports, and, in January, inflation outpaced wage growth to a greater extent. In other news, in late March, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a 30-day pause on energy infrastructure attacks—though reports have since surfaced of breaches—and to a ceasefire in the Black Sea; the latter was contingent on sanction relief for Russia, which European countries later rejected. Despite threats of further U.S. sanctions on its oil, Russia has so far delayed a comprehensive ceasefire while making fresh concession demands, recouping its Ukrainian-occupied territory and drafting additional troops.Russia Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.55 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 36 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Russia in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 55 economic indicators for Russia from a panel of 36 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Russia economy. To download a sample report on the Russia's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.
Russia Economic Indicators
Q&A:
How is Russia's economy doing?
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How big is the Russian economy?
Russia's economy contracted significantly following the country's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent imposition of Western sanctions. The sanctions have impacted Russia's energy exports, financial sector, and access to technology. That said, economic activity has since recovered.
The Russian economy faces an uncertain future, influenced by deteriorating population dynamics, sanctions, the Ukraine war, and global economic conditions. Modest growth is expected in the near term, but risks abound; tighter sanctions or escalating conflict could lead to renewed economic contraction.
As of 2023, Russia's economy is forecast to be among the largest in the world by nominal GDP, with a value of approximately USD 1.9 trillion. Russia remains a significant economic power with a strong resource base and a diversified economy. However, the ongoing war in Ukraine and Western sanctions will weigh on GDP growth ahead.