Russia

Russia Economic Forecast

Russia Economic Outlook

GDP jumped 4.9% year on year in Q2, marking the first expansion since Q1 2022. Industrial output rebounded strongly in Q2, thanks to recovering manufacturing activity, while a tight labor market and higher wage growth boosted retail sales. Moreover, a loose monetary policy stance, low inflation and elevated government spending likely boosted domestic demand. Upbeat growth momentum seems to have carried over into Q3. In July, economic activity climbed 5.0% yoy, supported by sustained growth in the industrial and retail sectors. Meanwhile, PMI data suggests private sector activity continued to expand in July, albeit at a slower rate than the Q2 average. Less positively, a resurgence in inflationary pressure and a rapid depreciation of the ruble forced the Central Bank to markedly tighten monetary conditions in August. This, coupled with falling oil output, bodes ill for economic activity.

Russia Inflation

Inflation rose to a five-month high of 4.3% in July (June: 3.2%). This was due to faster price growth for both food and non-food goods, which more than offset cooling services inflation. Inflation is forecast to rise further by year-end, partly on a weaker ruble, although aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) should keep it in check.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Russia from 2013 to 2022.

Russia Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 147 147 146 146 143
GDP (USD bn) 1,654 1,694 1,489 1,835 2,193
GDP per capita (USD) 11,267 11,543 10,183 12,610 15,287
GDP (EUR bn) 1,402 1,513 1,306 1,553 2,086
GDP per capita (EUR) 9,549 10,312 8,933 10,667 14,544
GDP (RUB bn) 103,862 109,608 107,658 135,295 153,435
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 13.1 5.5 -1.8 25.7 13.4
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.8 2.2 -2.7 5.6 -2.1
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.2 3.1 -4.0 9.4 -1.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.3 3.8 -5.9 10.0 -1.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.3 2.4 1.9 2.9 2.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 0.6 1.0 -4.0 9.1 3.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 5.6 0.7 -4.2 3.3 -13.9
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.7 3.1 -11.9 19.1 -15.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.5 3.4 -2.1 6.3 0.8
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.8 1.9 -3.2 8.8 -6.0
Wages (ann. var. %) 7.0 2.7 2.4 2.8 -1.1
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 4.8 4.6 5.9 4.3 3.7
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.8 4.6 5.8 4.8 3.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.6 1.8 -3.8 0.4 -2.1
Public Debt (% of GDP) 13.6 13.7 19.2 16.5 -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 11.0 9.7 13.5 13.0 24.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 4.3 3.0 4.9 8.4 11.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.9 4.5 3.4 6.7 13.8
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 11.9 3.2 -3.4 24.6 12.1
Key Rate (%, eop) 7.75 6.25 4.25 8.50 7.50
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 8.73 6.23 5.91 8.42 10.36
Stock Market (ann. var. of MICEX %) -7.6 45.3 -10.4 15.0 -39.2
Exchange Rate (RUB per USD, eop) 69.37 62.11 73.96 75.01 73.00
Exchange Rate (RUB per USD, aop) 62.80 64.71 72.33 73.71 69.97
Exchange Rate (RUB per EUR, eop) 79.30 69.72 90.50 85.30 77.91
Exchange Rate (RUB per EUR, aop) 74.10 72.43 82.45 87.13 73.55
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 115.7 65.7 35.4 122.1 236.1
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 7.0 3.9 2.4 6.7 10.8
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 195.1 165.8 93.4 190.3 314.1
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 444 420 334 494 591
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 249 254 240 304 277
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 25.8 -5.4 -20.5 48.2 19.5
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 4.4 2.0 -5.4 26.6 -9.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 13.2 32.1 10.4 38.6 -18.7
International Reserves (USD bn) 468 554 596 631 582
International Reserves (months of imports) 22.6 26.2 29.8 24.9 25.2
External Debt (USD bn) 455 491 468 482 381
External Debt (% of GDP) 27.5 29.0 31.4 26.3 17.4

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