Economic Growth in Russia
From 2013 to 2022, Russia's GDP growth experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and oil price volatility. The early part of the decade saw modest growth, hampered by the 2014 annexation of Crimea and subsequent sanctions. The economy contracted in 2015 due to declining oil prices and the sanctions' impact, recovering slightly thereafter. COVID-19 brought another downturn in 2020, which was followed by the imposition of Western sanctions in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian economy recorded an average growth rate of 0.8% in the decade to 2022, below the 2.5% average for Eastern Europe. In 2022, real GDP growth was -2.1%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Russia GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Russia from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Russia GDP Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.2 | -2.7 | 5.9 | -1.2 | 3.6 |
GDP (USD bn) | 1,694 | 1,489 | 1,842 | 2,218 | 2,012 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 1,513 | 1,306 | 1,558 | 2,110 | 1,861 |
GDP (RUB bn) | 109,608 | 107,658 | 135,774 | 155,189 | 172,148 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.5 | -1.8 | 26.1 | 14.3 | 10.9 |
Economy gains momentum in the first quarter
Economy gains momentum in the first quarter
A second national accounts release confirmed that the economy gained steam in the first quarter, expanding 5.4% year on year. Q1’s result was above the 4.9% increase logged in the fourth quarter of last year and beat market expectations. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth ticked up to 1.0% in Q1 from the previous quarter's 0.8% expansion.
A second national accounts release confirmed that the economy gained steam in the first quarter, expanding 5.4% year on year. Q1’s result was above the 4.9% increase logged in the fourth quarter of last year and beat market expectations. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth ticked up to 1.0% in Q1 from the previous quarter's 0.8% expansion.
From a production point of view, the upturn chiefly reflected a robust industrial sector performance. Mining and quarrying rebounded in the quarter and rose at a two-year high of 1.4% year on year (Q4 2023: -1.5% yoy), while manufacturing output growth accelerated to 9.0% from the prior quarter’s 7.2%. In addition, agriculture returned to growth, expanding 0.5% in January–March (Q4 2023: -4.9% yoy). That said, services sector output cooled: The public administration and defense sector swung into a 1.6% contraction in Q1 (Q4 2023: 4.1% yoy), while wholesale and retail trade growth slowed to 11.4% in the first quarter from 13.5% in the three months to December. Absent a breakdown by expenditure, surging inflation and tight financing conditions likely dragged on domestic demand. On the external front, the annual downturn in merchandise exports softened to a six-quarter low, contrasting a double-digit fall in goods imports and suggesting a recovering external sector performance.
From a production point of view, the upturn chiefly reflected a robust industrial sector performance. Mining and quarrying rebounded in the quarter and rose at a two-year high of 1.4% year on year (Q4 2023: -1.5% yoy), while manufacturing output growth accelerated to 9.0% from the prior quarter’s 7.2%. In addition, agriculture returned to growth, expanding 0.5% in January–March (Q4 2023: -4.9% yoy). That said, services sector output cooled: The public administration and defense sector swung into a 1.6% contraction in Q1 (Q4 2023: 4.1% yoy), while wholesale and retail trade growth slowed to 11.4% in the first quarter from 13.5% in the three months to December. Absent a breakdown by expenditure, surging inflation and tight financing conditions likely dragged on domestic demand. On the external front, the annual downturn in merchandise exports softened to a six-quarter low, contrasting a double-digit fall in goods imports and suggesting a recovering external sector performance.
Our panelists expect annual growth to have slowed significantly in the second quarter. Moreover, our Consensus is for GDP growth to cool in 2024 as a whole from 2023. The fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will continue to weigh on activity, outweighing a shallow rebound in exports. That said, economic activity growth will still roughly align with the Central Bank’s estimate of 2.5–3.5%.
Our panelists expect annual growth to have slowed significantly in the second quarter. Moreover, our Consensus is for GDP growth to cool in 2024 as a whole from 2023. The fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will continue to weigh on activity, outweighing a shallow rebound in exports. That said, economic activity growth will still roughly align with the Central Bank’s estimate of 2.5–3.5%.
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Russian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 36 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Russian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Russian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Russian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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