Russia

Russia GDP

Russia GDP

Economic Growth in Russia

From 2013 to 2022, Russia's GDP growth experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and oil price volatility. The early part of the decade saw modest growth, hampered by the 2014 annexation of Crimea and subsequent sanctions. The economy contracted in 2015 due to declining oil prices and the sanctions' impact, recovering slightly thereafter. COVID-19 brought another downturn in 2020, which was followed by the imposition of Western sanctions in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian economy recorded an average growth rate of 0.8% in the decade to 2022, below the 2.5% average for Eastern Europe. In 2022, real GDP growth was -2.1%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Russia GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Russia from 2013 to 2022.
Source: Federal Statistics Service Russia.

Russia GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.8 2.2 -2.7 5.6 -2.1
GDP (USD bn) 1,654 1,694 1,489 1,835 2,193
GDP (EUR bn) 1,402 1,513 1,306 1,553 2,086
GDP (RUB bn) 103,862 109,608 107,658 135,774 155,350
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 13.1 5.5 -1.8 26.1 14.4

Activity records largest expansion since Q4 2021 in Q3

Growth picked up in the third quarter, with GDP increasing 5.5% on an annual basis, according to a preliminary estimate (Q2: +4.9% year on year). Q3's reading marked the best result since Q4 2021.

Although the release did not include a breakdown by subcomponents, available monthly data suggests that the upturn was broad-based. On the production side, industrial output, wholesale and retail trade, construction activity and agricultural production all recorded sturdy growth in the third quarter. On the expenditure side, rising wages, booming retail sales and a record-low unemployment rate pointed to yet another strong upturn in domestic demand in the quarter. Less positively, merchandise exports slumped by nearly a third year on year in Q3, contrasting a double-digit increase in imports and pointing to a worsening external sector performance. This was chiefly due to international sanctions and lower exports of crude oil and natural gas.

Commenting on the economic outlook, analysts at Goldman Sachs said: “We believe loose fiscal policy is the main driver of the significant economic expansion […]. Both we and the CBR view the Russian economy as running above potential and this, rather than the Ruble, is the main driver behind the strong inflationary pressures. […] Although we expect GDP growth only to slow marginally to an above-consensus +2.1% in 2024 and further to +1.3% in 2025, we expect the structure of growth to rebalance sharply. Exports are likely to recover somehow post the one-off fall this year, but we think domestic demand growth will slow towards the 2.0% rate that we consider trend growth.” Meanwhile, analysts at EIU were more downbeat: “We remain skeptical of the accuracy of government-reported data, especially given their limited availability. Our assumption is that Russia's economy will remain under severe downward pressure throughout our forecast period as a result of Western sanctions. We expect the economy to grow by a still-subdued 0.7% in 2024, following estimated growth of 0.6% in 2023.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Russian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 34 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Russian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Russian GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Russian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

Latest Global GDP News

Free sample report

Interested in economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest