Haiti Economic Outlook
GDP contracted for the fourth year running in FY 2022 (October 2021–September 2022) by 1.7%. The decline was driven by shrinking private consumption and fixed investment due to gang violence and fuel shortages. In its December 2022 report, the Haitian Central Bank outlined that FY 2022’s precariousness carried over into the first quarter of FY 2023 (October–December 2022). Deteriorating security conditions, fuel shortages and elevated inflation profoundly dented the production of goods and services. In other news, Canada is attempting to coordinate a foreign intervention to support anti-gang efforts with the assistance of the Bahamas and Jamaica. In mid-February, Canada stepped up the delivery of armored vehicles and security gear and launched naval and aircraft surveillance of the country to assist local police forces.
Inflation rose to 48.3% in December—the last month with available data—from 45.5% in November, reaching its highest value in 28 years due to higher housing, food and clothing price pressures. This year, inflation should wane from current levels. Nevertheless, elevated insecurity, currency depreciation and supply constraints remain considerable upside risks.