Haiti Economic Forecast

The economy is likely deteriorating further in H2 FY 2023 (April–September 2023). Continued gang violence—the brutality of which the UN recently remarked on—fueled by political and economic instability is keeping the economy hostage. Business closures, dried-up investment amid downbeat investor sentiment, and dwindling international reserves are all hampering activity. Moreover, the insecurity is preventing the delivery of much-needed aid. Adding insult to injury, the country has not had the chance to recover from the fallout of June’s earthquake and extreme weather; tropical storm Franklin made landfall in late August, flooding part of the country. The UN’s World Food Programme recently stationed emergency response teams for support. Unfavorable weather bodes ill for agricultural output and could raise food prices ahead.

Inflation eased in May—the latest month for which data is available—to 46.4% (April: 47.9%) amid softer increases in prices for food and transport. This calendar year (CY), inflation is set to average roughly the same as in 2022, although it should ease from current levels in the remainder of the year. Currency depreciation and further supply-chain disruptions are risks.