The ocean and the beach in Haiti

Haiti Economic Forecast

Haiti Economic Outlook

The economy is likely deteriorating further in H2 FY 2023 (April–September 2023). Continued gang violence—the brutality of which the UN recently remarked on—fueled by political and economic instability is keeping the economy hostage. Business closures, dried-up investment amid downbeat investor sentiment, and dwindling international reserves are all hampering activity. Moreover, the insecurity is preventing the delivery of much-needed aid. Adding insult to injury, the country has not had the chance to recover from the fallout of June’s earthquake and extreme weather; tropical storm Franklin made landfall in late August, flooding part of the country. The UN’s World Food Programme recently stationed emergency response teams for support. Unfavorable weather bodes ill for agricultural output and could raise food prices ahead.

Haiti Inflation

Inflation eased in May—the latest month for which data is available—to 46.4% (April: 47.9%) amid softer increases in prices for food and transport. This calendar year (CY), inflation is set to average roughly the same as in 2022, although it should ease from current levels in the remainder of the year. Currency depreciation and further supply-chain disruptions are risks.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Haiti from 2013 to 2022.

Haiti Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.1
GDP (USD bn) 16.6 15.0 14.6 20.4 19.9
GDP per capita (USD) 1,453 1,299 1,245 1,713 1,651
GDP (HTG bn) 1,073 1,263 1,450 1,694 2,168
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 8.3 17.7 14.8 16.8 28.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.7 -1.7 -3.3 -1.8 -1.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.0 -2.1 -2.4 -2.6 -2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 21.5 25.4 22.0 25.6 25.0
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 19.2 13.7 4.2 35.5 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 15.4 20.8 19.2 24.6 48.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 12.5 129.0 22.8 16.8 34.0
Average lending rate (%, eop) 16.78 16.90 15.65 15.80 -
Exchange Rate (HTG per USD, eop) 77.38 88.15 74.11 101.45 147.09
Exchange Rate (HTG per USD, aop) 67.40 88.99 93.12 91.03 117.33
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.5 -0.2 0.2 0.1 -
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.9 -1.1 1.1 0.5 -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -3.7 -3.3 -2.9 -3.5 -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 4.8 4.5 3.8 4.6 -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 8.8 11.4 -26.3 27.7 -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 16.1 -6.0 -16.7 22.3 -
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
International Reserves (USD bn) 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.4
International Reserves (months of imports) 5.7 6.3 8.3 7.1 -
External Debt (USD bn) 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.6 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 13.4 14.7 15.8 12.8 -

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