Serbian town in the winter

Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

Year-on-year GDP growth accelerated in Q2 due to stronger fixed investment—buttressed by a sharp rebound in construction activity—and public spending. On the flip side, private consumption fell, and exports expanded at a lower rate. Turning to Q3, early data points to strengthening momentum. In July, industrial output grew at a faster pace relative to Q2, supported by softer cost pressures. Meanwhile, in the same month, inflation declined further, which likely contributed to a smaller decline in retail sales. In other news, in mid-August, President Vucic announced EUR 12 billion in public investment for infrastructure projects set to be completed by end-2026. Also in mid-August, Fitch affirmed the country’s ‘BB+’ rating with a stable outlook, citing a robust macroeconomic policy framework and a stronger external position thanks to easing energy sector pressures.

Serbia Inflation

Inflation came in at 12.5% in July, down from June’s 13.7%. The decline was caused by softer price pressures for housing and utilities, transportation, and food. Inflation is seen falling further in the coming months on the back of tight monetary policy. Commodity price swings and the trajectory of monetary policy are key factors to watch.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Serbia from 2013 to 2022.

Serbia Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8
GDP (USD bn) 50.6 51.5 53.4 63.0 63.5
GDP per capita (USD) 7,249 7,416 7,736 9,173 9,272
GDP (EUR bn) 42.9 46.0 46.8 53.3 60.4
GDP per capita (EUR) 6,144 6,625 6,786 7,760 8,821
GDP (RSD bn) 5,073 5,422 5,504 6,270 7,091
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.6 6.9 1.5 13.9 13.1
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.5 4.3 -0.9 7.5 2.3
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 6.5 6.3 -0.9 7.7 3.9
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.1 3.7 -1.9 7.8 3.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.7 1.9 2.8 4.1 0.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 17.5 17.2 -1.9 15.9 -0.6
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.5 7.7 -4.2 19.5 17.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 10.8 10.7 -3.6 17.7 17.8
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.5 0.2 0.4 6.1 1.6
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 4.1 9.7 4.9 10.8 6.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 12.7 10.4 9.0 11.1 9.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.6 -0.2 -8.0 -4.1 -3.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 53.6 51.9 57.0 56.5 55.1
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 16.7 16.6 30.9 13.8 6.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.0 1.8 1.3 7.9 15.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.0 1.8 1.6 4.1 12.0
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, aop) 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.3 7.1
Key Policy Rate (%, eop) 3.00 2.25 1.00 1.00 5.00
3-Month BELIBOR (%, eop) 3.03 1.64 0.90 0.94 4.95
Exchange Rate (RSD per USD, eop) 103.49 104.75 96.08 103.39 109.93
Exchange Rate (RSD per USD, aop) 100.21 105.27 103.14 99.46 111.74
Exchange Rate (RSD per EUR, eop) 118 118 118 118 117
Exchange Rate (RSD per EUR, aop) 118 118 118 118 117
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -2.1 -3.2 -1.9 -2.2 -4.2
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.9 -6.9 -4.1 -4.2 -7.0
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -5.1 -5.6 -5.2 -6.0 -9.5
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 15.1 16.4 16.1 21.0 26.9
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 20.2 22.0 21.3 27.0 36.4
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 7.4 8.5 -1.8 30.3 28.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 11.6 9.1 -3.2 26.7 34.7
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 3.9 4.1 3.2 4.5 5.1
International Reserves (EUR bn) 11.3 13.4 13.5 16.5 19.4
International Reserves (months of imports) 6.7 7.3 7.6 7.3 6.4
External Debt (EUR bn) 26.7 28.3 30.8 36.5 41.9
External Debt (% of GDP) 62.1 61.4 65.8 68.4 69.4

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