Serbian town in the winter

Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

The economy expanded 0.7% year on year in the first quarter. In annual terms, while investment rebounded, private and public consumption contracted. On the external front, exports growth moderated, and imports contracted. Turning to Q2, available data is somewhat negative. Compared to Q1’s average, retail sales contracted more sharply year on year in April, and industrial output grew less. On the positive side, tourist arrivals increased 22% in annual terms in April. In other news, recent violence in Kosovo in the wake of the country’s April mayoral elections—which ethnic Serbs boycotted—has raised tensions with Serbia and make a rapprochement between the countries less likely. Additionally, domestic protests triggered by mass shootings in early May could be weighing on activity and result in early elections.

Serbia Inflation

Inflation came in at 15.2% in April (March: 16.2%). Inflation should return to single-digit territory by Q4 due to a more favorable base of comparison but will still be elevated by historical standards. Volatile energy prices are a factor to watch. A more hawkish Central Bank and a better-than-expected agricultural season are downside risks.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Serbia from 2013 to 2022.

Serbia Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9
GDP (USD bn) 44 51 52 53 63
GDP per capita (USD) 6,296 7,249 7,416 7,736 9,173
GDP (EUR bn) 39 43 46 47 53
GDP per capita (EUR) 5,584 6,144 6,625 6,786 7,760
GDP (RSD bn) 4,761 5,073 5,422 5,504 6,270
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 5.1 6.6 6.9 1.5 13.9
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.1 4.5 4.3 -0.9 7.5
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 3.9 6.5 6.3 -0.9 7.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.2 3.1 3.7 -1.9 7.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.9 3.7 1.9 2.8 4.1
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 6.6 17.5 17.2 -1.9 15.9
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 8.2 7.5 7.7 -4.2 19.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 11.1 10.8 10.7 -3.6 17.7
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.4 1.5 0.2 0.4 6.1
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 3.8 4.1 9.7 4.9 10.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 14.5 13.7 11.2 9.7 11.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.1 0.6 -0.2 -8.0 -4.1
Public Debt (% of GDP) 57.8 53.6 51.9 57.0 56.5
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 7.9 16.7 16.6 30.9 13.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.0 2.0 1.8 1.3 7.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 4.1
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, aop) 1.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.3
Key Policy Rate (%, eop) 3.50 3.00 2.25 1.00 1.00
3-Month BELIBOR (%, eop) 3.12 3.03 1.64 0.90 0.94
Exchange Rate (RSD per USD, eop) 98 103 105 96 103
Exchange Rate (RSD per USD, aop) 107.70 100.21 105.27 103.14 99.46
Exchange Rate (RSD per EUR, eop) 118 118 118 118 118
Exchange Rate (RSD per EUR, aop) 121.44 118.24 117.83 117.58 117.58
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -2.0 -2.1 -3.2 -1.9 -2.2
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -5.2 -4.9 -6.9 -4.1 -4.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -4.0 -5.1 -5.6 -5.2 -6.0
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 14.1 15.1 16.4 16.1 21.0
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 18.1 20.2 22.0 21.3 27.0
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 9.8 7.4 8.5 -1.8 30.3
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 13.5 11.6 9.1 -3.2 26.7
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 3 4 4 3 4
International Reserves (EUR bn) 10.0 11.3 13.4 13.5 16.5
International Reserves (months of imports) 6.6 6.7 7.3 7.6 7.3
External Debt (EUR bn) 25.5 26.7 28.3 30.8 36.5
External Debt (% of GDP) 65.1 62.1 61.4 65.8 68.4

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