Serbia Interest Rate

NBS leaves rates unchanged again in June

NBS keeps rates on hold as expected: At its meeting on 11 June, the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) kept the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, where it has stood since September 2024. The decision was widely expected by the market.

Iran energy price shock drives the hold: The NBS has adopted a cautious stance since the U.S.-Iran war began in late February, avoiding cuts as it expects inflation to climb modestly to above its 1.5–4.5% target range in the coming months as energy prices increase. That said, the Bank held off from hiking as it expects the inflation uptick to prove temporary, returning within the target band by mid-2027.

NBS to stand pat through year-end: While the NBS did not provide specific forward guidance on future decisions, it highlighted that it could tighten monetary policy in the event of substantial second-round effects caused by the Iran energy price shock. The majority of our panelists foresee interest rates remaining on hold through the end of 2026, while the remainder still anticipate cuts of 25–100 basis points. The next meeting is scheduled for 9 July.

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