Key Policy Rate in Serbia
The Key Policy Rate ended 2022 at 5.00%, up from the 1.00% end-2021 value and down from the reading of 9.50% a decade earlier. For reference, the average policy rate in Eastern Europe was 8.40% at the end of 2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Serbia Interest Rate Chart
Serbia Interest Rate Data
|Key Policy Rate (%, eop)
|3-Month BELIBOR (%, eop)
Central Bank holds rates in February
At its 8 February meeting, the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) kept its key policy rate unchanged at 6.50%. It also held the deposit and lending facility rates at 5.25% and 7.75%, respectively. The decision marked the seventh consecutive hold and was in line with market expectations.
In justifying its decision, the Bank noted that domestic inflation remained on a downward trajectory on the back of prior monetary tightening and a high base effect for food prices. It added that global inflation was receding at a faster-than-expected rate but highlighted that transportation costs had risen at the outset of 2024 due to supply chain disruptions in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The Bank reiterated that it sees inflation returning to the 1.5–4.5% target band in mid-2024.
The Bank’s communique was void of explicit forward guidance. The NBS is set to release its February Inflation Report on 14 February, along with additional information on monetary policy decisions. Our panelists project the Bank to cut rates by 75–300 basis points by year-end. The next meeting is scheduled for 7 March.
Analysts at the EIU commented on the outlook: “We expect that monetary tightening has come to an end for now, with consumer price inflation easing at a faster pace. We expect rates to remain on hold for the next six months or so and that monetary policy will loosen from mid-2024 onwards. However, there is a risk that inflation will remain sticky and that rates will stay higher for longer.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Serbian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 15 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Serbian interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Serbian interest rate projections.
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