South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
With high energy prices due to the Iran war hurting domestic and external demand, our analysts now project regional GDP growth to weaken even more sharply this year than last. Only the economies of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia are seen accelerating. Further increases in energy prices and U.S. tariffs are key downside risks.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
So far this year, regional inflation has continued 2025’s three-tier profile—over 30% in Turkey, around 10% in Romania and more contained elsewhere. However, price pressures have spiked in all economies since February due to the surge in global energy prices, a factor that will continue to buoy regional inflation in the near term.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 10.8 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 7.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 10.9 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 64.4 | 54.4 | 50.3 | 45.8 | 45.0 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 7.48 | 6.72 | 25.77 | 29.13 | 23.87 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 11.4 | 43.4 | 32.7 | 34.5 | 22.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.2 | -4.2 | -4.3 | -3.1 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 11.4 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 7.8 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 2.2 | 6.4 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 9.8 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |