Skyline at golden hour in Turkey

South-Eastern Europe Economic Forecast

South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook

Economic growth will roughly halve this year relative to 2022. Stubbornly high inflation and tighter financing conditions will weigh on domestic activity, while global headwinds will hamper exports. Key factors to monitor are the return to economic orthodoxy in Turkey, the health of the Eurozone economy, ethno-nationalistic tensions and the evolution of the war in Ukraine.

South-Eastern Europe Inflation

In July, inflation softened in all countries except heavyweights Turkey and Greece; as a result, regional inflation rose to 31.2% (June: 26.0%). Inflation is seen falling marginally from current levels by year-end thanks to softer demand amid tighter monetary policy. A stronger-than-expected pickup in Turkish inflation poses an upside risk to the outlook.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2021.

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 9.7 8.8 6.6 11.3 43.2
Policy Rate (%, eop) 17.71 9.08 12.06 10.04 8.15
Exchange Rate (BAM per USD, eop) 9.27 9.83 10.42 14.15 17.32
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.4 2.0 -1.7 9.5 5.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.7 2.3 -0.6 11.5 12.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 0.5 -3.3 3.8 7.2 -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 2.2 -1.1 -1.6 13.2 3.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 11.5 12.2 12.1 11.0 -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.3 -2.0 -5.8 -4.2 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 56.9 56.7 66.6 65.8 -

Free Sample Report

Interested in South-Eastern Europe economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest