South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
This year, GDP growth is projected to be the weakest since 2020. Most economies are forecast to lose steam as interest rates tighten and energy costs rise—the latter will likely cap industrial activity, travel and consumer spending. Higher-than-expected U.S. tariffs and a reignition of high-intensity U.S.-Iran conflict are downside risks.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
So far in 2026, regional inflation has averaged over 30% in Turkey, about 10% in Romania and 2–5% elsewhere. Regional price pressures have risen since February due to the surge in global energy prices, but pulled back in July. Turkish inflation will remain far higher than elsewhere into 2027, with Romanian inflation converging towards that of remaining SEE economies.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 64.4 | 54.4 | 50.3 | 45.7 | 44.9 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 11.4 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 3.4 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 7.8 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 2.3 | 6.6 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 9.8 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 10.8 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 7.8 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 7.48 | 6.72 | 25.77 | 29.15 | 23.90 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 11.4 | 43.4 | 32.7 | 34.6 | 22.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 10.9 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.2 | -4.2 | -4.3 | -3.1 |