South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Regional GDP growth is forecast to ease this year, chiefly due to a slowdown in Turkey. On the flip side, most other economies in the regions are seen expanding at faster clips thanks to lower inflation and interest rates. Additional spillover from the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and increased ethno-nationalist tensions pose downside risks.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
Regional inflation rose to 37.2% in February from 36.1% in January, mainly on stronger price pressures in Turkey. Inflation is set to decelerate from current levels by year-end, curbed by prior monetary tightening and a high base effect. Commodity price spikes and supply disruptions due to conflict in the Red Sea pose upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2022.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.0 | -1.7 | 9.6 | 5.1 | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.3 | -0.6 | 11.5 | 12.9 | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | -3.3 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 3.9 | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -0.9 | -1.6 | 13.0 | 3.7 | 0.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 12.3 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 9.7 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.0 | -5.8 | -4.2 | -2.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 56.6 | 66.6 | 65.0 | 54.7 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 8.8 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 43.4 | 32.7 |
| CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 7.16 | 9.59 | 7.95 | 7.04 | - |
| Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 11.45 | 12.05 | 16.46 | 20.03 | - |