South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
SEE economic growth is forecast to soften this year relative to last, chiefly due to a slowing Turkish economy. That said, most EU members and Western Balkan countries are set to grow at a faster pace, aided by cooling inflation and monetary easing. The escalation of nearby wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and rising ethno-nationalist tensions are downside risks.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
Regional inflation accelerated in May, chiefly due to intensifying price pressures in Turkey. Inflation should cool from current levels by year-end, curbed by prior monetary tightening. However, over 2024 as a whole, it is seen around 2023’s average as an increase in Turkey broadly offsets a decline in the rest of the region. Commodity price spikes are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2023.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 12.2 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 8.8 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.0 | -1.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 3.5 |
| 2.3 | -0.6 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 8.2 | |
| -3.3 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 8.4 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -0.9 | -1.6 | 13.0 | 3.7 | 0.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.0 | -5.8 | -4.2 | -2.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 56.6 | 66.5 | 65.0 | 54.8 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 8.8 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 43.2 | 32.6 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 7.16 | 9.58 | 7.95 | 7.04 | 26.87 |