South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
In 2025, SEE economic growth is seen broadly matching 2024’s rate. Turkey is seen decelerating due to a slowdown in private spending, and Euro area members should also lose traction. Nonetheless, most other economies in the region will accelerate, aided by interest rate cuts and sturdier EU demand. Escalations in the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine are downside risks.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
SEE inflation edged down in January, as Turkish disinflation outweighed stronger price rises in most other countries. Our panel expects inflation to decline markedly from 2024’s level this year on past interest rate hikes and a high base effect. Spikes in commodity prices, faster-than-expected monetary policy easing and greater trade protectionism are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 11.8 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 8.6 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 3.9 | - |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -0.4 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 8.4 | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 3.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 9.3 | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.7 | 13.0 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.8 | -4.1 | -2.2 | -4.3 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 67.0 | 65.4 | 55.3 | 51.2 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.6 | 11.3 | 43.1 | 32.5 | 34.2 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 9.44 | 7.80 | 6.93 | 26.69 | 30.17 |