South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Our panelists have continued to lower their 2026 GDP growth projections in recent weeks, likely in response to the recent flare-up in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran that caused a renewed fuel price spike. Most economies are set to lose steam this year vs 2025, with only those of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia seen accelerating.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
So far in 2026, regional inflation has continued 2025’s three-tier profile—over 30% in Turkey, about 10% in Romania and 2–7% elsewhere. Price pressures have spiked in all economies since February due to the surge in global energy prices. The evolution of fuel shipments via the Hormuz Strait is a key two-sided risk to inflation going forward.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 10.8 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 7.7 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 10.9 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.2 | -4.2 | -4.3 | -3.1 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 64.4 | 54.4 | 50.3 | 45.8 | 44.9 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 11.4 | 43.4 | 32.7 | 34.5 | 22.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 9.8 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 7.8 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 2.2 | 6.4 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 11.4 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 7.48 | 6.72 | 25.77 | 29.13 | 23.87 |