Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

Global growth is set to ease this year: 

Global economic growth is expected to dip slightly next year on slower growth in the G7 and China, which will only be partially offset by stronger growth in other emerging markets. Rising global trade protectionism is the key downside risk to the outlook, which centers around how the U.S.-China trade spat evolves.  

After a weak 2019, regional growth is expected to regain steam next year. The acceleration will be driven chiefly by a pick-up in Brazil’s economy, thanks to monetary easing and reviving confidence. Growth is also seen accelerating in Chile, Mexico and Peru. However, Argentina is expected to remain in recession amid high inflation and policy uncertainty.

Growth is seen broadly unchanged next year, with slowdowns in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico offset by stronger momentum in Costa Rica and Panama. Downside risks stem from political uncertainty in Haiti and Nicaragua, vulnerability to natural disasters and a lack of clarity over the future of the TPS program in the U.S.  

Economic growth in ASEAN is projected to gather momentum in 2020, propelled by more accommodative monetary stances, fiscal stimulus and solid domestic economies. Nevertheless, the prolonged U.S.-China trade rift and a sharper-than-expected downturn in China could hinder growth prospects, particularly given the region’s reliance on trade and the tech sector.

East Asian economies are expected to decelerate in 2020

The East Asian economy is seen further decelerating next year as export-driven economies continue to face headwinds from China-U.S. trade tensions, which are weighing on global economic activity. More supportive fiscal and monetary policies should, however, support growth.

Growth is expected to remain soft next year, after dropping sharply in 2019

A tough external environment will likely continue to weigh on investment and exports, while household spending is seen stalling on more modest labor sector gains. Risks stem from the global environment, particularly a sharp slowdown in China and intensification of trade tensions.Growth is seen at 1.1% in 2019 and 1.1% again in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Central & Eastern Europe growth to decelerate in 2019

Regional growth is set to slow next year due to intensifying supply constraints and a challenging external environment. Moreover, a moderation in EU funding inflows and easing construction activity will weigh on fixed investment, while a possible reignition of global trade tensions further cloud the outlook.

Regional economic activity is expected to accelerate notably next year

Regional economic activity is expected to accelerate notably next year, largely reflective of a recovery in the region’s largest economy, Turkey. More broadly, domestic demand should remain healthy, despite ebbing fixed investment growth is some countries. However, global trade tensions and a slowdown in the Eurozone could weigh on exports and pose downside risks.

Regional growth is seen picking up next year

Regional growth is seen picking up next year, chiefly on firmer domestic demand in Russia amid fiscal stimulus and persistent monetary policy easing. Accelerating economic activity in Belarus, coupled with upbeat growth momentum in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, should cement the upturn. A volatile external environment remains a major risk to the outlook, however.

Economic growth is set to accelerate notably in 2020 

Economic growth is set to accelerate notably in 2020 on an expected increase in oil production, if the OPEC+ deal ends in March 2020 as planned, and more stable economic dynamics in Iran. However, risks are skewed to the downside; geopolitical threats remain high and an uncertain global economic outlook could dampen global demand, especially for oil.

Available data points to a downturn in the third quarter following the second quarter’s upswing, as a series of breakdowns in Eskom’s coal power plants triggered a burst of rolling blackouts. Consequently, electricity supply swung to contraction in the quarter, as the debt-ridden state-owned utility struggles to stay afloat, hampering overall activity. Moreover, manufacturing production and business confidence both fell in Q3, while retail sales growth slowed in the first two months of the quarter. On 1 November, Moody’s opted to uphold its rating on the country’s sovereign debt rather than downgrade to junk, despite the medium-term budget policy statement released on 30 October revealing a bleak fiscal picture ahead. The outlook, however, was cut from stable to negative, underlining the material risk that the government will likely fail to restore fiscal discipline, especially given an apparent lack of political capital to implement tough reforms. This suggests that the country is unlikely to retain its final investment-grade rating in the medium-term; a downgrade to junk would trigger sizeable capital outflows.