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Latest Reports
July 25, 2018
Divergences in global growth trajectories continue amid trade war and financial concerns
Preliminary data for Q2 corroborates that the global economy remains in good shape despite lingering trade policy uncertainties, global political instability and tighter financial conditions. An early GDP growth estimate for the global economy put year-on-year growth at 3.5% in Q2. While the print matched the result in Q1, it was above last month’s forecast of 3.4% growth for the quarter.
August 8, 2018
Growth holds up in Q2 despite political turbulence
Available data suggests that Latin America’s economic momentum held up in the second quarter, despite political turbulence in key economies and an uncertain economic backdrop. Regional GDP (excluding Venezuela) is expected to have expanded 2.0% annually in Q2, a notch above Q1’s 1.9% increase. Higher commodity prices buttressed growth in commodity-exporting countries, while healthy consumption is expected to have supported activity in Mexico. That said, the acceleration was moderate considering Q1’s growth reading was weighed on by adverse calendar effects that dissipated in Q2. Moreover, economic slack persists in the region, especially in major players Argentina and Brazil.
August 8, 2018
Second-quarter growth strengthens on upbeat industrial metrics
Available data suggests that the Central America and Caribbean economy picked up speed in the second quarter as early-year trends in industrial activity and remittance inflows firmed up. Regional growth appears to have gotten back on track following a subdued start to the year and is estimated to have clocked in at an upbeat 2.3% year-on-year. Meanwhile, more comprehensive data now pegs the first quarter’s expansion at 1.9% annually, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s preliminary estimate. Notably, most economies in the region appear to have ramped up activity through the first half of the year. That said, regional growth was held back by Puerto Rico, which has been mired in a years-long recession most recently exacerbated by last year’s deadly hurricane season; excluding Puerto Rico, growth in the second quarter looks to have been the region’s strongest outturn in more than a year.
July 18, 2018
Growth remains strong in Q2, although momentum likely eased slightly
An advance estimate of GDP growth for ASEAN suggests that the region’s economy continued to power ahead in the second quarter, largely brushing aside rising trade concerns and tightening financial conditions. GDP is estimated to have expanded 5.2% in the second quarter on an annual basis, down from the prior quarter’s 5.4% figure.
July 18, 2018
Potential escalation of trade war between China and the U.S. threatens ESA’s solid growth trajectory
The East and South Asian (ESA) economies continue to defy any threat of a sharp economic slowdown and preliminary data for Q2 suggests that the region’s stellar growth trajectory was broadly steady. Benign inflation figures and large foreign reserves allowed central banks to maintain relatively accommodative monetary policies despite the ongoing monetary tightening in the United States. Moreover, subdued inflation boosted household spending in a context of tight labor markets. While the global trade cycle peaked in Q1, export growth was still robust in Q2, fueling factory work in the region. An early GDP growth estimate for the region shows that ESA countries expanded an aggregated 6.3% annually in Q2. While the print was a notch below the 6.4% increase in Q1, it was above last month’s forecast of 6.2% growth for the quarter.
July 25, 2018
Economic data turns brighter; politics continues to cloud outlook
The Eurozone economy decelerated sharply in the first quarter of the year, ending the spell of robust growth that was seen in 2017. A slower global recovery and strong euro caused exports to plunge in Q1 and GDP growth to slide to a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% over the previous quarter (Q4 2017: +0.7% quarter-on-quarter). While GDP data for the second quarter is still outstanding, monthly economic indicators suggest that the economy remained in a soft patch at the start of the period but stabilized towards June. Industrial production shrank in April and economic sentiment fell throughout the quarter. However, industrial output rebounded solidly in May and the composite PMI recovered some lost ground in June.
August 1, 2018
Second-quarter growth seen moderating despite resilient domestic demand
Available data suggests that the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economy lost steam through the first half of the year, slowing somewhat from last year’s breakneck growth spurt. Ahead of preliminary estimates for the second quarter, leading data hints that regional growth moderated through June on weaker external demand stemming from this year’s slowdown in the Eurozone. That said, the piping-hot domestic economy that propelled the region’s 4.4% annual expansion in the first quarter appears to have kept pace in recent months despite, in some cases, running up against labor shortages. Moreover, an investment boom has been underway across much of the region, supported by cheap financing and greater absorption of EU structural funds. As it stands, FocusEconomics peg second-quarter growth of the CEE economy at 4.1% year-on-year.
August 1, 2018
Economic growth likely slowed markedly in Q2 following a strong Q1
According to an estimate by FocusEconomics, South-Eastern Europe’s (SEE) economy lost steam in the second quarter and grew 4.1%, which would be a marked deceleration from Q1’s 5.5% expansion
August 1, 2018
CIS economy keeps healthy pace in Q2
Incoming data for the economy of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) suggests that regional growth held up well in Q2, after a sharp pick up in Q1. Regional GDP is expected to have grown 1.9% annually in Q2, unchanged from the 1.9% expansion recorded in the previous quarter. Higher oil prices, rising wages and a healthy labor market are supporting a recovery in Russia’s economy, which is, in turn, fueling solid remittances inflows and export demand in the neighboring economies. Although the region is clearly recovering after the slump produced by low commodities prices in 2015–2016, growth is still notably below the commodities boom years.
August 1, 2018
Geopolitical risks threaten nascent economic recovery
An estimate prepared by FocusEconomics showed that economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region strengthened in the April–June period. According to FocusEconomics, the MENA economy rose an aggregated 2.8% year-on-year in Q2, which marked an improvement over Q1’s 2.5% expansion and represented the strongest rate in over one year.
July 18, 2018
Recovery kicks into a higher gear in the first half of 2018
A more comprehensive set of data confirmed that Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) economy picked up pace in the first quarter of 2018. Regional GDP increased 3.0% year-on-year in the first quarter, matching last month’s preliminary figure and surpassing the 2.8% expansion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2017. The acceleration came on the back of firmer commodity prices and healthier domestic demand in the first quarter.
Latest Economic
News
United Kingdom: Unemployment rate hits fresh multi-decade low in April-June, but wage growth continues to moderate
August 14, 2018
In the April-June period the unemployment rate fell to 4.0%, down from 4.2% in March-May and marking the lowest rate since 1975.
Slovakia: Growth in industrial production moderates further in June
August 13, 2018
Industrial production expanded 2.1% year-on-year in June, down from May’s revised 2.9% increase (previously reported: +2.5% year-on-year).
Serbia: Inflation edges higher in July
August 13, 2018
Consumer prices declined 0.3% from the previous month in July, contrasting June’s 0.4% increase.
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