Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

Global economic growth is expected to lose steam this year

This is mostly due to softer dynamics among developed economies, which are approaching the tail-end of their current economic cycles. However, the global economy should be supported by tight labor markets, still accommodative monetary policy and stimulus in some countries like China.

Latin America growth prospects cut again in May on weak incoming Q1 data

Activity is seen remaining soft this year, picking up only slightly from a dismal 2018, and growth prospects were cut again this month on weak incoming Q1 data. A challenging external environment and political uncertainty are weighing on this year’s outlook. The modest uptick in growth will be driven by slightly stronger growth in Brazil and a smaller drag from Argentina. 

Central America & Caribbean regional economy to pick up steam in 2019

In 2019 the region should pick up steam, largely on a recovery in Puerto Rico and stronger growth in Panama. Despite ebbing U.S. momentum, the strong U.S. labor market should continue to support remittances and tourism. Uncertainty over U.S. immigration policy, vulnerability to extreme weather events and the crisis in Nicaragua pose downside risks.

Growth in the ASEAN economy is expected to ease slightly in 2019

East Asian economies are expected to slow this year compared to last year. 

East Asian economies are expected to slow this year compared to last year. Notably, these highly export-driven economies will face headwinds from weaker global growth and rising trade protectionism. That said, Chinese fiscal policy stimulus and accommodative monetary policy across the region should support activity in the months ahead.

The economy likely stayed in a soft patch in the first quarter

The economy likely stayed in a soft patch in the first quarter, plagued by problems in the manufacturing sector and a weaker external backdrop. Economic sentiment fell throughout Q1, recording the worst reading in over two years in March, while declining export orders alongside transitory issues caused industrial output to drop in February and kept the manufacturing PMI in contractionary territory in March. That said, a solid labor market should continue to keep activity in the black. Leading data for Q2 has so far been lackluster, with the composite PMI falling in April. Moreover, on the political front, uncertainty continues to reign. While the EU recently approved an extension to the UK’s exit date, questions linger over if and when Brexit will occur and what it will entail. Meanwhile, on 15 April, the EU approved a mandate to open trade talks with the U.S. amid ongoing threats of tariffs from its largest trading partner.     

Central & Eastern Europe growth set to slow further in 2019

Regional growth is set to slow further in 2019, but it should remain healthy. Despite moderating, consumer spending will expand solidly, fueled by strong wage growth and tight labor markets. Similarly, growth in fixed investment will remain robust, yet it will decelerate due to slowing EU fund inflows. Pronounced economic weakness in the Eurozone cloud the outlook.

The Turkish downturn is expected to drag on regional activity

Growth is seen slumping to a three-year low in 2019

Growth is seen slumping to a three-year low in 2019, mainly due to a deceleration of Russia’s economy. The OPEC+ deal will limit energy output, while private consumption is also seen waning amid a rise in taxes, soft sentiment and higher inflation. Russia’s slowdown will likely spill over into other economies via remittances and trade. Oil output cuts will weigh on Kazakhstan’s activity. 

Economic activity in Middle East and North Africa to gain steam in 2019

Sub-Saharan Africa: The overall expansion is seen only slightly above last year’s modest outturn

Growth prospects were again cut this month, largely reflecting weak incoming data from heavyweight South Africa and oil-rich Angola. The overall expansion is thus now seen only slightly above last year’s modest outturn. Elevated global trade tensions, commodity-price volatility, adverse weather shocks and policy uncertainty represent key downside risks to the outlook.