Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

Global economic growth is still seen dipping this year

Despite better-than-expected Q1 GDP outturns for many countries, global growth is still seen dipping this year due to softer dynamics among developed economies. However, the global economy should be supported by tight labor markets and accommodative monetary policy. The U.S.-China trade dispute is the key downside risk.

Latin America is seen growing weakly this year

The region is seen growing weakly this year and prospects were cut for a third month running in June. Trade tensions and a slowing global economy are seen stunting export growth broadly. On top of this, Argentina is in the midst of a tough economic adjustment; fiscal and political challenges weigh on Brazil’s outlook; and uncertainty is high in Mexico owing to tension with the U.S.

Central America & Caribbean regional economy to shift into a higher gear in 2019

Regional economic activity is seen shifting into a higher gear this year, mainly owing to a recovery in Puerto Rico. Remittances and tourism inflows should remain robust on a sound U.S. labor market, which should boost household incomes in turn. U.S. immigration policy uncertainty, exposure to extreme weather events and the crisis in Nicaragua pose key downside risks, however.

Growth in the ASEAN economy is expected to ease slightly in 2019

East Asian economies are expected to slow this year compared to last year. 

East Asian economies are expected to slow this year compared to last year. Notably, these highly export-driven economies will face headwinds from weaker global growth and rising trade protectionism. That said, Chinese fiscal policy stimulus and accommodative monetary policy across the region should support activity in the months ahead.

The economy is seeing slowing in 2019

Flash estimates revealed that growth surpassed expectations in the first quarter of the year, reviving after last year’s sharp slowdown. Although a breakdown by components is not yet available, solid household spending likely supported the result as consumers benefitted from a tightening labor market. In addition, a relatively mild winter may have bolstered the construction sector, while the manufacturing sector is expected to have improved somewhat as one-off issues fade. That said, monthly data still points to soft activity overall and it remains to be seen if momentum will keep pace in Q2. Economic sentiment dropped for the 10th consecutive month in April and the composite PMI continued to point to a two-speed economy in May. Meanwhile, the European parliamentary elections revealed increasing divisions within the union. The vote suggests that the European project will likely remain stuck: with little appetite to move forward or backwards with integration and reforms.

Central & Eastern Europe growth set to moderate in 2019

Although regional growth will moderate this year, largely due to weakness in the Eurozone and a mature business cycle, it will remain solid. Robust domestic demand will propel the expansion, spurred by strong wage and credit growth, supportive EU investment funding and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.

The Turkish downturn set to drag on regional activity

A sharp slowdown in Russia to reverberate across CIS

Economic activity in Middle East and North Africa to deteriorate on the back of elevated geopolitical risks

Growth prospects for the Middle East and North Africa are deteriorating on the back of elevated geopolitical risks, weak global demand and severe oil production cuts. Moreover, escalating trade tensions between China and the United States threaten to hit global economic growth, which could, in turn, reduce demand for the black gold.

Sub-Saharan Africa: The overall expansion is seen only slightly above last year’s modest outturn

Growth prospects were again cut this month, largely reflecting weak incoming data from heavyweight South Africa and oil-rich Angola. The overall expansion is thus now seen only slightly above last year’s modest outturn. Elevated global trade tensions, commodity-price volatility, adverse weather shocks and policy uncertainty represent key downside risks to the outlook.