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Latest Reports

  • January 31, 2018

    Global economy ends 2017 on solid footing

    A combination of loose monetary conditions, solid labor markets, healthy global trade and higher commodity prices led global growth to expand in the second half of 2018 at rates last seen nearly seven years ago. According to preliminary estimates by FocusEconomics, the global economy expanded 3.5% annually in Q4. The print matched Q3’s expansion, which had represented the fastest acceleration since early 2011. Because of the strong growth observed in the second half of 2017, the global economy rose 3.3% in 2017, up from 2.7% in 2016.

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  • February 14, 2018

    Economic backdrop improves as political cycle advances 

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  • February 14, 2018

    Regional economy likely made some headway in Q4

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  • January 24, 2018

    ASEAN economy ends 2017 on a strong note

    Preliminary data reveals that the economy of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) recorded another quarter of robust growth at the end of 2017, although activity slowed from Q3’s nearly five-year high. According to an estimate compiled by FocusEconomics, regional GDP expanded 5.2% annually in Q4, marking the second-fastest growth rate since Q1 2013 (Q3: +5.6% year-on-year). The ASEAN economy picked up notably in the second half of 2017 thanks to strong external demand, especially for technology goods; healthy labor markets; and accommodative monetary policies. 

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  • January 24, 2018

    ESA economic growth maintains cruising speed in Q4

    Growth momentum remained intact in the East and South Asia (ESA) region in Q4 due to strong global demand, particularly for electronic devices and semiconductors; solid capital inflows; and loose monetary policies across the region. A preliminary set of data for ESA countries showed that aggregate GDP for the region rose 6.3% annually in Q4, driving growth for 2017 to 6.3% (2016: +6.1%). Q4’s print matched the result in Q3 and was above the 6.1% forecast in last month’s report. The resilient growth figure was mainly the result of a better-than-expected performance in China, despite earlier signs signaling a moderation in momentum.

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  • January 31, 2018

    Growth ends 2017 on a high note 

    A stream of positive data continues to flow in for the Eurozone economy, suggesting that the recovery remained in a high gear in the final quarter of 2017. Economic sentiment hit a new multi-year high in December, exports grew at a solid rate in November and the unemployment rate fell to a multi-year low in October. Furthermore, in a sign that the ECB’s ultra-accommodative monetary policy stance is bearing fruit, corporate lending in the bloc hit a post-crisis high in December. FocusEconomics analysts project that GDP expanded a robust seasonally-adjusted 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, a notch below the third quarter’s result.  

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  • February 7, 2018

    CEE economy surges amid investment and consumption boom in 2017

    Incoming data for last year suggests that the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economy grew robustly in 2017, enjoying the best year of growth in over a decade. FocusEconomics expects regional GDP to have grown 4.6% last year, a notch up from last month’s projection and notably above the 3.1% increase seen in 2016. The region is benefiting from strong export demand as the Eurozone economy, which had a stellar 2017, soars. Moreover, loose fiscal policies, tight labor markets and strong inflows of EU development funds are acting as tailwinds to the domestic economies.

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  • February 7, 2018

    Economic momentum moderates but carries over into Q4

    The South-Eastern Europe (SEE) economy is expected to have recorded its strongest year-on-year expansion in eleven years in 2017 on a combination of healthy global demand and sentiment, ample fiscal stimulus programs and robust foreign capital inflows. GDP growth for the year is estimated to have clocked in at 5.4%, well above the 3.0% rise recorded in the previous year. Regional growth is, however, expected to have peaked in the third quarter, with high-frequency data pointing to a moderation across economies in the fourth quarter.

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  • February 7, 2018

    CIS growth underwhelms in 2017

    Preliminary data from the economy of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) revealed that growth accelerated, but came in below expectations last year. Regional GDP expanded 1.9% in 2017, below expectations of 2.1%. The subdued result is chiefly due to weaker-than-expected activity in Russia. However, the print still shows that the economic recovery is largely on track, thanks to Russia’s economic turnaround from 2015-2016, a supportive global environment and higher commodity prices. The GDP reading is a notable improvement from 2016’s 0.2% increase and marks the fastest growth since 2013.

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  • February 7, 2018

    Election cycle could undermine economic recovery 

    The impact of the oil production cuts by OPEC members and heightened geopolitical tensions led economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa region to moderate to an all-time low last year. MENA economies rose an aggregated 1.7% in 2017, down from 2016’s five-year high of 4.7%. Oil-exporting economies were behind last year’s economic slowdown, as they had to cut oil production by a combined total of 1.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) in compliance with the November 2016 deal between OPEC and other key global suppliers, namely Russia. Reduced oil production translated into lower government revenues and weaker fiscal support to the economy. However, the effects of lower production were partially offset by rising oil prices that allowed some governments, including Saudi Arabia, to unravel some of the austerity measures adopted in the wake of the 2014–2016 collapse in oil prices.

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  • January 24, 2018

    Growth steadies in Q3 as momentum varies across SSA 

    Comprehensive GDP data revealed that Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) recovery continued in the third quarter; however, the economy failed to gain traction from the previous period. Regional GDP expanded 2.7% annually in Q3, matching Q2’s result, which had marked the fastest growth since Q4 2015. A more accommodative global economy, higher commodity prices and buoyant infrastructure investment are largely behind the recovery. While activity in the region has picked up steam since 2016’s sharp slowdown, numerous macroeconomic challenges remain. Growth has been mixed across economies, with some flourishing, and activity continuing to be weak in others.

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