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Our reports feature the Consensus Forecast (mean average), along with best- and worst-case scenarios. Find out how FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports can help you meet your business goals.
Latest Reports
January 30, 2019
Global growth was likely steady in Q4, although 2019 begins with economic clouds on the horizon
The global economy is expected to have grown 3.1% in the fourth quarter over the same period in the previous year according to an estimate produced by FocusEconomics. If confirmed, this would be unchanged from Q3’s figure, but below the elevated readings recorded in H2 2017 and H1 2018.
February 13, 2019
Growth projected to regain some steam in Q4; crisis-stricken Venezuela groans under oil sanctions
Latin America’s bumpy economic recovery is expected to have had a better quarter at the end of 2018, after growth slumped in the third quarter. FocusEconomics estimates that GDP increased 1.7% year-on-year in Q4, above Q3’s 1.5%. Despite the modest uptick, growth remains weak in the Latin American economy, which had a disappointing 2018 overall. Weaker global trade, a noisy election cycle, shifting sentiment for emerging-market assets and one-off shocks in major players caused the recovery to flounder last year.
February 13, 2019
Regional economy likely performed well in Q4
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Central America and the Caribbean region to have expanded 4.0% in the fourth quarter, up from Q3’s 3.2% increase. Excluding Puerto Rico, CENAM is forecast to have grown 3.5%, which if confirmed would match Q3’s figure.
February 20, 2018
Regional economy likely gained steam in the final quarter
According to a comprehensive estimate by FocusEconomics, ASEAN expanded 4.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, marking an uptick from Q3’s revised 4.6% expansion (previously reported: +4.7% year-on-year).
February 20, 2018
The clock is ticking on a China-U.S. trade deal
Growth in the East and South Asia region stabilized in the final quarter of 2018, although it remains low by historical standards. Solid private consumption, on the back of declining unemployment rates and wage gains, supported the expansion. Nevertheless, domestic economic imbalances, declining global demand and diminished business sentiment—partially, although not entirely, due to the trade spat between China and the United States—continued to put downward pressure on regional growth. According to an estimate for the region produced by FocusEconomics, ESA countries grew an aggregated 6.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. The print matched both Q3’s expansion and last month’s estimate.
January 30, 2019
Recovery optimism replaced by recessionary fears
After a strong start to last year, the Eurozone’s economy appears to have lost significant momentum in the second half of 2018, with incoming data suggesting a sour end to the year. FocusEconomics analysts expect GDP to have expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, a slight improvement from Q3’s 0.2% increase but notably below the 0.7% growth seen throughout 2017. The Eurozone’s economic momentum dissipated significantly throughout last year, weighed on by plunging confidence, dampened external demand and political turbulence.
February 6, 2019
Q4 2018 slowdown now appears inevitable
Central and Eastern Europe’s (CEE) once-averted slowdown now almost certainly appears to have materialized in the fourth quarter of last year. On the heels of an expectations-defying outturn in the third quarter (Q3 2018: +4.2% year-on-year), and ahead of most year-end national accounts, FocusEconomics estimates regional growth to have cooled to 4.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. Available fourth-quarter indicators suggest that the moderating factors were twofold: On the external front, a slowdown in the Eurozone weighed on exports and, in turn, industrial output; meanwhile, domestically, tight labor markets appeared to no longer be delivering the returns they once did. Nevertheless, lower fuel costs are expected to have padded internal demand somewhat.
February 6, 2019
Regional economy likely hits headwinds in Q4
According to a preliminary estimate by FocusEconomics, South-Eastern Europe’s (SEE) economy slowed notably in the fourth quarter, with growth weakening to 1.1% in annual terms from 2.5% in the third quarter.
February 6, 2019
Activity improves in 2018 despite sanctions and EM turmoil
The economy of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) gained momentum in 2018, despite a rollercoaster of a year for emerging-market economies. According to a preliminary estimate, regional GDP grew 2.6%, notably above 2017’s 2.0% increase. Recovering energy and mining sectors likely held up growth despite a volatile year for commodity prices. That said, multiple other headwinds were in play last year and prevented a stronger acceleration, including geopolitical uncertainty and sanctions on Russia, tighter global financial conditions and easing global trade.
February 6, 2019
MENA losing momentum in Q4 as economic and political headwinds manifest
More complete economic data for the Middle East and North Africa for the second half of 2018 reveals that the region has started to feel the pinch of weaker global growth, volatility in financial markets and ongoing domestic threats. According to an estimate by FocusEconomics, the MENA economy expanded an aggregate 1.8% annually in Q3. The print was below both Q2’s 2.1% expansion and the 2.0% rise projected last month. That said, Iran represented the lion share of the slowdown in Q3 as the country was negatively affected by the reintroduction of economic sanctions by the United States.
February 20, 2019
Recovery still on track despite Q4 2018 cool-off
Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) economic recovery appeared to face some headwinds in the fourth quarter, on the heels of a marked upturn in the third quarter. Although fourth-quarter national accounts remain outstanding for all economies bar Nigeria, a very preliminary estimate suggests that regional growth through year-end dipped to 3.0% year-on-year (previously reported: +2.8% year-on-year). Meanwhile, comprehensive third-quarter national accounts confirmed regional growth at 3.1% year-on-year as the region’s major players shook off a mid-year malaise.
Latest Economic
News
Italy: Inflation falls in January on cooling energy prices
February 21, 2019
According to a second release published by the National Statistical Institute (ISTAT) on 21 February, consumer prices rose 0.1% over the previous month in January, contrasting December’s 0.1% month-on-month decline.
Japan: Trade deficit continues to widen on faltering exports
February 20, 2019
Nominal yen-denominated merchandise exports fell 8.4% year-on-year in January, following the 3.9% decrease in December.
Netherlands: Consumer confidence falls into pessimistic territory for the first time since February 2015
February 20, 2019
Sentiment among Dutch consumers continued to drop and stumbled into pessimistic territory in February with the index decreasing to minus 2 from plus 1 in January.
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