Coronavirus Weekly Survey – 25 March
For the first time, a majority of panelists now see the negative impact of Covid-19 dragging into 2021, with a global recession in the next 12 months judged to be all but inevitable.
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Latest Reports
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March 4, 2020
Global economic growth is seen dipping slightly in 2020
Global economic growth is seen dipping slightly this year compared to last as the coronavirus weighs on momentum in H1, particularly in China. However, the “phase-one” U.S .-China trade deal should reduce global trade uncertainty to an extent. A possible worsening of the viral outbreak, a resurgence of U.S.-China tensions and social unrest in some countries pose downside risks.
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March 17, 2020
Regional growth prospects were slashed this month as the fast-spreading coronavirus wreaks economic havoc worldwide. Although activity is still seen strengthening somewhat this year, the outlook is bleak given the virus-inflicted disruptions to global supply chains and trade; downturn in commodity prices; volatility in financial markets; and stress to public health systems.
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March 17, 2020
Growth in the regional economy is expected to ease this year on weaker activity in the Dominican Republic, Guatemala and Puerto Rico. The balance of risks to the regional outlook, moreover, is skewed to the downside amid social tensions, vulnerability to natural disasters, softer growth in U.S. and the coronavirus, which will hit exports and tourism.
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March 25, 2020
The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic appears set to annihilate growth in ASEAN in H1, especially in export-oriented Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Strong fiscal policy responses and monetary policy easing should buffer the blow somewhat, however. The outlook this year predominately hinges on how long the virus will derail global economic activity.
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March 25, 2020
East Asian economic growth is expected to slump in 2020
East Asian economic growth is expected to slump in 2020, marking the third consecutive year of slowing growth, as the coronavirus pandemic restricts activity across the region and hits export prospects. On the plus side, supportive fiscal and monetary policies should cushion the slowdown somewhat.
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March 4, 2019
A second estimate confirmed that the Eurozone economy cooled markedly in the final quarter of 2019, while weak available data and the coronavirus outbreak bode ill for the first quarter of this year. A notable downturn in the industrial sector against the backdrop of global trade tensions, subdued demand from key trading partners and sustained political uncertainty weighed on the economy in the fourth quarter. Turning to Q1 2020, still-weak consumer and business confidence in January−February suggest economic activity will remain feeble. Moreover, the outbreak of coronavirus in Italy and its spread to other Euro area countries look set to hit the manufacturing and tourism sectors. In politics, the resignation of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Merkel’s obvious successor, highlights tensions between government coalition partners, stoking political uncertainty in Europe’s largest economy.
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March 10, 2020
Central & Eastern Europe growth to lose traction in 2020
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March 10, 2020
The outlook for the regional economy this year is much improved compared to last year as the Turkish economy will continue to gain traction. More broadly, still-cheap credit and tight labor markets should buttress wages and regional activity. Risks remain skewed to the downside, however, amid lingering external headwinds such as soft growth in the EU and the coronavirus.
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March 10, 2020
Economic activity in CIS Countries is expected to strengthen in 2020
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March 11, 2020
Regional growth should recover slightly this year on a favourable base effect. However, economic activity will still be weak due to ongoing recession in Iran and the impact of the coronavirus. Downside risks include widespread geopolitical tensions, social unrest and political uncertainty in several countries, and a worsening of the viral outbreak.
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March 25, 2020
Growth is expected to deteriorate in 2020
Latest Economic
News
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Argentina: Contraction in economic activity sharpens at 2020 outset
March 31, 2020
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) fell 1.8% year-on-year in January, after logging a 0.2% dip in December.
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Croatia: Industrial production contracts again in February
March 31, 2020
Industrial production fell 2.1% in working-day adjusted terms over the same month last year in February, a softer drop than January’s 5.5% dive.
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Italy: Government approves EUR 25 billion stimulus package to shield economy from coronavirus blow
March 30, 2020
In a bid to counteract the significant economic fallout from the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, Italy’s government unveiled two stimulus packages in the first half of March amounting to EUR 25 billion.
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