Global economic activity is set to rebound in 2021

Regional economic activity should bounce back this year as the gradual lifting of restrictions buttresses domestic and foreign demand . That said, the outlook remains clouded by several downside risks, including social unrest in several countries, elevated unemployment, deteriorated fiscal metrics, further flare-ups of the virus and a potentially slow vaccine rollout.

Regional growth is seen rising this year from last. A recovery in Puerto Rico and a likely acceleration in Panama should more than offset slower momentum in the rest of the region. Political uncertainty in Nicaragua, exposure to natural disasters and uncertainty over the future of the TPS program in the U.S. are downside risks to the outlook.

The regional economy is forecast to recover well in 2021 from this year’s sharp contraction

The regional economy is forecast to recover well in 2021 from this year’s sharp contraction, with domestic demand set to be buoyed by an uptick in consumer and capital spending. However, the spike in Covid-19 cases in Europe and the U.S. casts a shadow over the outlook, potentially dragging on regional exports to key markets at the outset of the year.

East Asia economic growth is seen accelerating markedly in 2021

Growth is seen accelerating markedly in 2021 as the regional economy shrugs off the effects of the pandemic and external demand rebounds. Ample fiscal and monetary stimulus in the region should further support the rebound, while a less volatile U.S. trade policy under a Biden administration bodes well for exports. Covid-19-related uncertainty clouds the outlook, however.

Detailed national accounts data revealed that Q3’s strong rebound in GDP was supported by both the domestic and external economy: Resuming business activity and unleashed pent-up consumer spending fueled domestic demand, while easing lockdowns abroad boosted exports. That said, the recovery seems to have hit a stumbling block in Q4.  The reintroduction of restrictions due to rising Covid-19 cases left visible scars on the services sector and on consumer and business sentiment in November, while a lost Christmas season will further weigh on activity at the tail end of 2020. In politics, in late November Eurozone finance ministers reached a deal to revamp the bloc’s bailout fund to provide extra cash for failing banks, starting in 2022. Moreover, Hungary and Poland recently lifted their veto on the EU’s multi-year budget and Covid-19 recovery fund in exchange for a softening of the rule of law mechanism.

Regional GDP is projected to return to growth in 2021 as activity recovers from the pandemic. Household and capital spending are set to rebound, partly supported by continued fiscal and monetary stimulus, while strengthening demand from the EU should bolster exports. Uncertainty regarding the evolution of the health crisis and the deployment of vaccines clouds the outlook.

The regional economy is set  to return to growth this year, recovering from the pandemic-induced downturn. The reopening of economies is set to buttress domestic and foreign demand; however, a sluggish labor market recovery,   particularly as fiscal support measures are wound down, will limit household spending. Moreover, uncertainty regarding the pandemic clouds the outlook.

Regional GDP should bounce back strongly this year, as economies emerge from the Covid-19-induced slump. Recovering household consumption is set to spearhead the upturn, amid the easing of lockdown measures as the vaccine rollout gains momentum throughout H1 . Expansionary fiscal policies and firmer foreign demand should further support the rebound.

The MENA economy should rebound this year. Oil exporters should gain from higher crude prices and the reduction of OPEC+ cuts, while countries across the region should gain from some progress in the vaccine rollout and stronger demand abroad. That said, geopolitical tensions, fragile fiscal positions and uncertainty around the course of the pandemic pose downside risks.

The region to suffer its worst contraction on record this year