Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

Trade war threatens to derail stellar global growth momentum

A complete GDP dataset revealed that global growth lost some steam in the fourth quarter of 2017, despite remaining robust overall. The global economy expanded 3.4% annually in Q4, which was a notch below both the 3.5% rise estimated last month, and the 3.5% expansion recorded in Q3 2017. The slightly lower figure was the result of weaker-than-expected growth in Latin America, particularly in Brazil. Conversely, newly released GDP data for India came in above market expectations. Data for Q1 signals that the economy continues to sail smoothly, propelled by largely accommodative monetary policies, tight labor markets and robust global trade. Against this backdrop, our analysts expect the global economy to expand 3.5% in Q1 on improved dynamics in both advanced and emerging market economies.

Bumpy recovery continues in Q1; Colombia and Paraguay elections expected to yield market-friendly outcomes 

Economic data corroborates region’s improving performance

Robust fundamentals buttress region’s solid economic performance

The economy of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is expected to have lost some speed but retained solid momentum in the first quarter of the year, weighed down by marginally higher borrowing costs but supported by solid FDI, improving labor conditions and upbeat global trade flows. Building on a notable 2017 performance, the region is seen growing 5.2% year-on-year in Q1, only marginally below the 5.3% increase recorded in the previous quarter.

ESA stands on guard in face of a possible trade war 

The economy of East and South Asia (ESA) continues to fire on all cylinders on the back of the robust global trade cycle, largely accommodative monetary policies in the region and strong gains in labor markets, which is shoring up private spending. A complete estimate shows that ESA countries expanded an aggregated 6.3% annually in Q4 2017, matching both Q3’s print and a preliminary figure from last month.

Detailed data for the fourth quarter of 2017 confirmed that the Eurozone economy continued to expand robustly, although growth moderated slightly from the previous quarter. GDP increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% over the previous quarter in Q4, a notch below Q3’s 0.7% rise. The domestic economy broadly kept pace, supported by rebounding investment and tightening labor market conditions, while export growth was brisk amid healthy global growth.

Economic growth continues to roar on, despite tense political backdrop

Economic growth loses steam in the fourth quarter but remains solid

Growth dips temporarily in Q4

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s economy lost steam in the October–December period compared to the July–September period. According to a more complete set of data, economic growth in the region dipped to 1.2% in Q4, down from the previous quarter’s revised 1.7% expansion (previously reported: +1.8% year-on-year) and below a preliminary estimate of 1.4%.

SSA economy ends 2017 on a solid note

Preliminary data revealed that Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) economic recovery continued in the final quarter of last year, as the region rebounds from the 2016 growth slump. An estimate compiled by FocusEconomics revealed that GDP increased 3.0% annually in Q4, matching Q3’s result and marking the joint-highest reading since Q4 2015. For the full year 2017, growth came in at 2.7%, up nearly a whole percentage point from 2016’s 1.8%. Higher commodity prices, a favorable global backdrop and improving non-energy sectors helped shore up growth across the region last year. However, growth remains far below the rates tallied during the commodities boom, and many structural issues linger within the individual economies.