Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

Global economic growth is seen stable next year

Global economic growth is seen stable next year, as weaker momentum in the G7 and China should be offset by stronger growth in other emerging markets. Key risks to the outlook include trade tensions, which will likely persist despite the reported “phase one” deal between the U.S. and China, and possible further social unrest

After a subdued 2019, regional growth is projected to gain some pace this year on stronger activity in heavyweights Mexico and, especially, Brazil. Rising domestic demand will underpin the overall expansion, helped by supportive monetary policy and improving sentiment. Still-lingering trade tensions, domestic policy uncertainty and social discontent remain key risks to the outlook.

Growth is seen ebbing slightly  this year as weaker momentum in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico seems set to outweigh faster growth in Costa Rica and Panama. Downside risks stem from a potential faster-than-expected U.S. slowdown; social tensions in countries such as Haiti, Honduras and Nicaragua ; and a vulnerability to natural disasters.

Economic growth in ASEAN should gain traction in 2020, supported largely by stronger growth in Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore. Tight labor markets and more accommodative monetary and fiscal stances should buttress domestic demand, while the external sector should recover. U.S.-China trade tensions, could weigh on the trade-reliant region, however. 

East Asian economies set to lose momentum in 2020

East Asian economic growth is expected to slow in 2020 for the second consecutive year, as the export-driven economies face U.S.-China trade policy uncertainty and subdued global growth. Robust private consumption and looser fiscal and monetary policies, however, should cushion the slowdown.

The economy kept pace in the third quarter, although growth was modest. The expansion was underpinned by healthy consumer spending, but restrained by cooling investment activity and an unsupportive external backdrop. Data suggests subdued momentum carried over into the final quarter of 2019. A sharper drop in industrial production in October, weak PMI readings in November−December and downbeat business sentiment in the first two months of Q4 point to protracted weakness, while feebler retail sales and consumer confidence indicate softening consumer spending. On the political front, the Conservative Party’s resounding victory in the UK elections on 12 December signals a clearer Brexit roadmap ahead, reducing related uncertainties. Meanwhile, in mid-November, the European Commission reproached France, Italy and Spain for not adopting meaningful fiscal adjustment, exposing themselves to potential economic shocks.

Central & Eastern Europe growth  is seen shifting into a lower gear this year

Regional economic activity is expected to accelerate notably next year

The ongoing recovery in the Turkish economy should lift regional growth into a notably higher gear this year, while still-cheap credit and a tightening labor market feeding through to wages are expected to buttress activity in the region. However, external headwinds continue to darken the horizon amid lingering trade tensions and weak momentum in the European Union.

Accelerating activity in Russia, propped up by looser monetary policy and fiscal stimulus measures, is set to propel regional growth this year. Growth is also seen picking up in Belarus, while largely steady    momentum in Kazakhstan and Ukraine should further cement overall growth in CIS Plus. That said, a volatile external environment remains a key risk to the outlook.

Economic growth is set to accelerate notably in 2020 

MENA’s regional growth is expected to recover this year, following a poor performance in 2019, due to a much smaller contraction in Iran and an expected recovery in oil output. That said, risks to the economic outlook are skewed to the downside, including a potential extension of the OPEC+ oil cut deal beyond the March deadline and widespread geopolitical risks.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is seen shifting into a higher gear next year, mainly driven by quickening, albeit still modest, growth in the resource-rich economies of Nigeria and South Africa. The U.S.-China trade war, lackluster global economic activity, commodity-price volatility, growing external debt concerns and the slow enactment of reforms all cloud the outlook.