Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

Global economic outlook cut amid softer dynamics among developed economies

Global economic growth is expected to decelerate this year. This is mostly due to softer dynamics among developed economies, which are approaching the tail-end of their current economic cycles. Nevertheless, the global economy is seen benefiting from tight labor markets, still accommodative monetary and policy stimulus in some countries like China.

Latin America's prospects cut with activity seen remaining sluggish overall in 2019

Risks to the Central America & Caribbean outlook skewed to the downside

In 2019, Central America and the Caribbean should continue to benefit from strong remittance inflows, tourism activity and exports. Risks appear skewed to the downside and stem largely from the U.S.-China trade dispute, uncertainty over U.S. immigration policy, vulnerability to extreme weather events and the possibility of spillovers from the political crisis in Nicaragua.

ASEAN region expected to maintain solid pace of expansion in 2019

Regional economic growth moderated last year but is expected to maintain a solid pace of expansion this year, underpinned by wage growth, infrastructure spending and foreign investment inflows. However, a prolonged and stronger moderation in China, intensification of the American-Sino trade spat and financial market volatility pose downside risks to the regional economy.

Growth in nearly all East Asia economies expected to slow this year

Growth in nearly all economies in the East Asia region is expected to slow this year compared to last year. Notably, the export-driven economies will face headwinds from weaker global growth and rising trade protectionism. That said, slightly loose monetary policy across the region should support economic activity in the months ahead.

Eurozone outlook cut for fifth consecutive month

Comprehensive data confirmed that the economy stuttered again in Q4 2018, with growth barely picking up after the Q3’s weak performance. Downbeat sentiment, troubles in the manufacturing sector and the unwinding of inventories weighed on the domestic economy. While the economic backdrop remains somber in 2019—with heightened uncertainty over Brexit and tariffs on the automobile industry—recent signs have emerged of a tentative stabilization. Retail sales jumped in January and the unemployment rate held at a multi-year low, boding well for household spending. Low oil prices, meanwhile, should keep inflation and the import bill in check. Furthermore, although economic sentiment continued to fall in February, the pace of decline moderated significantly. That said, the manufacturing PMI slumped in March, suggesting that the sector is still reeling from a slowing global economy and a bruised car sector.   

Central & Eastern Europe growth set to slow further in 2019

Regional growth is set to slow further in 2019, but it should remain healthy. Despite moderating, consumer spending will expand solidly, fueled by strong wage growth and tight labor markets. Similarly, growth in fixed investment will remain robust, yet it will decelerate due to slowing EU fund inflows. Pronounced economic weakness in the Eurozone cloud the outlook.

South-Eastern Europe regional growth seen moderating further in 2019

Despite still-robust domestic fundamentals, regional economic activity eased at the close of last year. Moderating growth in Romania and Greece, and a steep contraction in the region’s behemoth, which is suffering amid high inflation and unemployment, led the downturn. This year, regional growth is seen moderating further chiefly owing to a prolonged recession in Turkey.

CIS Countries regional growth set to slide this year

Regional growth is expected to slide this year, chiefly owing to the challenging economic situation in Russia due to the VAT hike and oil production cuts. Spillover effects from lower growth in the regional heavyweight will also hit other economies as remittances and export demand are squeezed. Overall, the bulk of CIS economies are seen losing steam this year.

Growth in the MENA region to gain steam in 2019

Economic growth in Middle East and North Africa will gain steam this year on the back of an expected increase in oil prices, bold fiscal support and still accommodative monetary conditions. That said, a reduction in oil output by key regional members in compliance with the OPEC+ deal and geopolitical risks darken the outlook.  

Sub-Saharan Africa: Regional growth set to gain traction this year

Regional growth is set to gain traction this year, largely owing to improved activity in oil-rich Nigeria and Angola, with the latter expected to finally exit its three-year long recession. Faster, albeit still modest, growth in South Africa should also prop up activity. Global trade tensions and commodity-price volatility pose downside risks to the outlook.