Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

Global economic growth is still seen dipping this year

Global growth is likely to dim this year, due largely to weaker momentum in developed economies and China. However, tight labor markets and more accommodative monetary policy should prop up activity. A further escalation of trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, is the key downside risk.

Latin America’s growth outlook was cut for the fifth consecutive month in August, following a poor first half of 2019. A challenging global environment, plagued by persistent trade tensions and slowing growth, is seen holding back activity. Internal issues, such as Argentina’s economic adjustment, policy uncertainty in Mexico and declining confidence, also add to the downbeat outlook.

A recovery in Puerto Rico and a likely uptick in Panama will drive an acceleration in regional growth this year. That said, the rest of the region is seen stable or slowing as softer U.S. growth dampens remittances, exports and tourism. The recession in Nicaragua, exposure to natural disasters and uncertainty over the future of the TPS program in the U.S. are risks to the outlook.  

Growth in the ASEAN economy is expected to moderate in 2019

This year, regional economic growth is seen moderating as a more challenging external environment leaves its mark. However, robust domestic demand, foreign investment flows and infrastructure spending should provide some stimulus. Lingering trade tensions and moderating economic growth in China—a key economic partner of the region—pose the main downside risks.

East Asian economies are expected to decelerate in 2019

The regional economy is seen decelerating this year as export-driven economies will face headwinds from weaker global demand, escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, and an economic slowdown in China. More supportive fiscal and monetary policies in China should, however, support growth.

Activity is seen slowing sharply this year

Central & Eastern Europe growth to ease in 2019

Regional growth is seen moderating this year, due to intensifying capacity constraints and a weak EU economy. However, activity will still remain solid, with domestic demand firmly in the driver’s seat, bolstered by sustained inflows of EU funds and strong wage growth. 2019’s growth forecast was increased again this month, due to robust performances in H1.

The Turkish downturn set to drag on regional activity

The regional economy is expected to grow at a meek pace this year due to the contraction in Turkey. This, however, masks otherwise robust fundamentals. Particularly, tight labor markets and robust wage gains should support private consumption. Ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, moderating EU growth and a potential further deterioration in Turkey cloud the outlook.

The Russian downturn to reverberate across most of the CIS economies in 2019

The Russian downturn will reverberate across most of the CIS economies this year, as persistently weak consumer demand and a challenging external backdrop hinders the regional heavyweight’s expansion. That said, growth should pick up in Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan, thanks to booming extractive activity. Geopolitical uncertainty threatens to weaken the regional outlook, however.

Economic activity in MENA to be expected to be stable in 2019  compared to last

Growth in MENA is seen fairly stable this year compared to last, held back by the recently extended OPEC oil cuts. However, this masks greatly differing performances among countries; Iran will contract sharply as U.S. sanctions savage the economy, while Iraq is seen bouncing back from last year’s decline. Geopolitical tensions and volatile oil prices pose downside risks.

Regional growth is now thus expected to hold steady from 2018’s modest outturn

This year, regional growth is seen remaining steady from 2018’s modest upturn, propped up by fast-growing, smaller economies like Ghana, Tanzania and Uganda. Externally, a slowing global economy, commodity price volatility and elevated trade tensions, combined with policy uncertainty, fiscal concerns and slow pace of reforms domestically, dampen the region’s outlook.