Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

Global economic growth is still seen dipping this year

Global growth is seen dipping this year, due largely to softer dynamics among developed economies and China. However, tight labor markets and loose monetary policy should provide some support. A further escalation of trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, is the key downside risk.The global economy is projected to expand 2.9% in 2019, unchanged from last month's forecast. For 2020, the global economy is projected to expand 2.8%.

Regional growth is seen remaining soft this year

Central America & Caribbean regional economy to shift into a higher gear in 2019

Although average regional economic activity is seen shifting into a higher gear this year, mainly owing to a recovery in Puerto Rico and stronger momentum in Panama, most countries are seen slowing amid easing momentum in the United States. Uncertainty over U.S. immigration policy, exposure to extreme weather events and the crisis in Nicaragua pose key downside risks.

Growth in the ASEAN economy is expected to moderate in 2019

This year, regional economic growth is seen moderating as a more challenging external environment leaves its mark. However, robust domestic demand, foreign investment flows and infrastructure spending should provide some stimulus. Lingering trade tensions and moderating economic growth in China—a key economic partner of the region—pose the main downside risks.

East Asian economies are expected to decelerate in 2019

Growth in East Asia is set to decelerate this year as export-driven economies will feel the pain from weaker global demand amid escalating trade tensions between China and the United States. Economies in East Asia are also highly susceptible to a Chinese economic slowdown.

A tougher external environment is seen causing growth to slow to a six-year low in 2019

Growth revived in the first quarter of the year, after slowing sharply in the second half of 2018. A solid domestic economy drove the acceleration, with household spending picking up, boosted by a falling unemployment rate and wages growing at the fastest rate in a decade. Meanwhile, exports growth slowed amid the turbulent external environment, although overall the external sector still contributed modestly to growth. Incoming data for the second quarter suggests that growth remains broadly on pace, but with diverging dynamics in the economy. The unemployment rate dropped to a fresh over decade-low in April, but data for the industrial sector continued to disappoint with production contracting again in April. Meanwhile, a summit of the European Union’s leaders failed to iron out who should take over the Union’s top jobs this year in June. Key positions such as the EU Commission president and ECB president are set to change hands at a challenging time amid Brexit, trade tensions and weak growth.

Central & Eastern Europe growth to ease in 2019

This year, regional growth will ease, held back by a weak external environment and growing capacity constraints. That said, 2019’s growth forecast was revised up this month, following a strong Q1, and the economy should remain solid, underpinned by sturdy domestic demand benefiting from a continued absorption of EU funds, favorable financing conditions and notable wage gains.

The Turkish downturn set to drag on regional activity

Prospects in CIS countries remain gloomy in 2019

Economic activity in Middle East and North Africa to be expected to pick up slightly in 2019

Although growth in MENA is expected to pick up slightly this year, the performance will differ greatly among countries within the region, with Iran contracting yet again and Iraq rebounding strongly. Overall, oil-exporting economies will be affected by an uncertain global oil market, while weak global demand and political unrest are broader downside risks to the outlook.

Regional growth is now thus expected to hold steady from 2018’s modest outturn

Growth prospects were cut for the fourth month running chiefly on weaker projected activity in Angola and South Africa. Regional growth is now thus expected to hold steady from 2018’s modest outturn. The outlook is challenging: A sharper slowdown in major trading partners, commodity price swings, policy uncertainty and slow progress on reforms domestically are key downside risks.