Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

Following global slowdown in Q3, growth likely stabilized in Q4

The global economy lost steam in the third quarter following the second quarter’s strong showing. A comprehensive GDP estimate for the global economy put year-on-year growth at 3.1% for Q3, below Q2’s 3.4% increase.

Recovery slumps in third quarter; eyes turn to policy after election-filled 2018

Latin America’s economic recovery lost momentum in the third quarter of 2018, with growth decelerating for the third consecutive period. A comprehensive estimate revealed that regional GDP expanded 1.5% annually in Q3, below Q2’s 1.7% expansion and the slowest growth rate since Q2 2017. Tighter global financial conditions and a sharp shift in sentiment away from emerging markets hampered regional activity in the period, along with softening global trade. In addition, internal dynamics also played a role. Argentina’s economic adjustment, in particular, continued to drag on the Latin American economy, especially affecting its regional trading partners.

Regional economy picked up speed in Q3; further acceleration likely in Q4

Regional economy loses significant momentum in the third quarter; signs from Q4 are mixed

According to a comprehensive estimate by FocusEconomics, ASEAN expanded 4.7% in the third quarter of 2018, down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate of 4.9% growth and marking a deceleration from H1’s average growth of 5.3%

East and South Asia is closing a strong 2018 despite multiple headwinds

The East and South Asia region entered 2018 on a solid footing, posting the fastest growth rate in over three years in the first two quarters. The strong growth momentum reflected largely accommodative monetary conditions, robust global growth, tight labor markets and fiscal support in some countries. In H2, however, the region’s economic performance has been hit by the trade spat between China and the United, softer global growth, especially in Europe and China, higher oil prices and heightened volatility in the financial markets. According to an estimate for the region produced by FocusEconomics, ESA countries grew an aggregated 6.0% year-on-year in the third quarter, marginally undershooting last month’s estimate of a 6.1% rise. In Q4, our panelists also put growth at 6.0%. Overall, growth in the region is projected at 6.2% in 2018, only a notch below 2017’s 6.3%.

Eurozone economy slows sharply in Q3; moderate momentum likely persists in Q4

Comprehensive data confirmed that growth plunged in the Eurozone economy in the third quarter, recording the softest expansion since Q1 2013. GDP increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.2% over the previous quarter in Q3, below Q1 and Q2’s 0.4% expansions. Growth has dissipated notably after coming in at 0.7% for all of 2017, and the latest reading confirms that the economy has shifted from a recovery boom last year to a slower cruising speed.

CEE accelerates in Q3; slowdown anticipated in Q4

Defying expectations of a slowdown, a comprehensive estimate confirmed that growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) held up in the third quarter. Regional growth came in at 4.3% year-on-year (previously reported: +4.2% year-on-year), a notch faster than in the second quarter (Q2: +4.2% year-on-year)—the slowest expansion in nearly two years—and beating analysts’ expectations of a tapered 3.8% outturn. By-now familiar dynamics propelled the regional economy: Upbeat internal demand, underpinned by private-sector spending and public-sector investment, outweighed faltering external demand amid the unfolding Eurozone slowdown and economic crisis in Turkey. Available fourth-quarter indicators, meanwhile, suggest that economic activity tapered through year-end on moderating consumer-spending gains and flailing export growth. Moreover, industrial-output readings have been uneven across the region in recent months; FocusEconomics’ first estimate projects growth in the quarter at 3.9%.

The regional economy endures a rough Q3, although dynamics across most economies are positive

According to a comprehensive estimate by FocusEconomics, South-Eastern Europe’s (SEE) economy slowed notably in the third quarter, with growth weakening to 2.5% in annual terms from 4.3% in the second quarter and below last month’s preliminary estimate of 2.6% growth.

Growth softens in Q3; temporary pick-up likely in Q4

A more complete dataset revealed that the economy of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) grew faster-than-previously estimated in the third quarter of 2018, with regional GDP expanding 1.9% annually. The result is above last month’s preliminary estimate of 1.8% and chiefly due to an upward revision in Russia’s Q3 growth rate. Despite the growth upgrade, activity still slowed overall from Q2’s 2.4% as Russia’s flagging economy, adverse weather and tighter financial conditions weighed on regional dynamics.

Regional growth withstands mounting geopolitical risks in Q3

The Middle East and North Africa region continued to defy rising geopolitical threats and expanded at a still-robust pace in the third quarter. According to an estimate by FocusEconomics, the MENA economy expanded an aggregate 2.0% annually in Q3. The print was a notch below both Q2’s 2.1% expansion and the 2.2% rise projected last month.

Regional heavyweights power upturn in Q3

Preliminary third-quarter data revealed an upturn for the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economy on the back of the region’s heavyweights, after having faltered in the second quarter. Regional growth in the third quarter picked up to 2.9% year-on-year (Q2: +2.3% year-on-year), broadly in line with early estimates (previously reported: +3.0% year-on-year). Despite what is expected to have been another recession-mired quarter for Angola, both Nigeria and South Africa—by far the region’s largest two economies—notched broad-based gains.