Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

Economic momentum in advanced market economies gives Central Banks room to maneuver

The global economy churned out healthy growth in the second quarter, with advanced economies benefiting from lenient monetary conditions and tightening labor markets while emerging economies made the most of a recovery in commodity prices and resilient dynamics in China. Complete data for the global economy shows that growth was 3.2% annually in the second quarter, marking the best result in two years and coming in marginally above the 3.1% expansion recorded in the first quarter.

Regional recovery broad-based in Q2

Positive economic data continues to emerge from the Latin American economy, confirming that the recovery is gaining traction across the region. Detailed GDP data released by national statistical institutes confirms that the Latin American economy grew 1.1% annually in Q2, a notable acceleration from Q1’s 0.8% increase and the best result in over three years.

Growth tumbles to an over six-year low in Q2

Economic growth in the Central American and Caribbean region slowed in the second quarter, according to more comprehensive data. The region’s economy expanded 2.3% in annual terms in Q2, a notable deceleration from the 3.0% increase recorded in Q1 and the weakest rate of expansion since Q4 2010. The lackluster performance reflected worsening dynamics in a majority of economies and deteriorating domestic conditions across the region on slower credit growth and increased fiscal consolidation measures. In particular, the Dominican Republic and Guatemala had the weakest GDP growth in several years.

Growth picks up to multi-year high in Q3

Economic dynamics remain resilient in Q3

The economy of the East and South Asia (ESA) region continues its momentum as accommodative monetary policies across the region, solid global trade flows and a moderate recovery in commodity prices continue to buttress growth. While slightly weaker dynamics in China likely exerted downward economic pressure on the region in Q3, an improvement in India’s economic performance boosted overall activity in ESA. GDP growth is estimated to have been stable at 6.1% in the third quarter.

German elections dent political optimism

Comprehensive data confirm that the Eurozone’s energetic recovery sped up in Q2, with GDP growing a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% quarter-on-quarter—above Q1’s 0.5% increase. Detailed data confirmed a broadening of the bloc’s growth drivers as a pick-up in external demand combined with a healthy domestic economy drove activity. The Eurozone has emerged as a bright spot in global growth this year—with GDP expanding at a clip that has been much faster than had been expected. Available data for Q3 also to paints a bright picture of the economy: Sentiment in the bloc is sky-high and the unemployment rate is resting at a multi-year low.

Government balances come into focus as 2018 budgets are unveiled amid strong growth

The Central and Eastern European (CEE) economy recorded robust growth in the second quarter, with activity gaining speed for the third consecutive period. Comprehensive data released by statistical institutes across the region showed that GDP grew a buoyant 4.2% annually in Q2, above Q1’s 4.0% growth and slightly above the preliminary estimate of 4.1%. The CEE economy has flourished so far in 2017 thanks to rebounding investment led by EU development funds, tight labor markets and booming activity in the Eurozone, the region’s key trading partner.

Regional economic activity growth remains solid, led by a strong Turkish economy

The economy of the South-Eastern Europe (SEE) region rounded out a strong first half of the year, according to more comprehensive data. A complete view of the regional economy shows that growth was 4.3% annually in Q2, mirroring the expansion recorded in Q1. Economic growth was spearheaded by Romania, where growth was confirmed at 5.9% in the second quarter, and Turkey, which churned out a second consecutive quarter of growth above 5.0%. On top of a robust H1 performance, leading data suggests that economic momentum carried over into the third quarter, with regional GDP growth estimated to accelerate to 4.7%.

CIS economy gets back on track

Growth has firmed up in the economy of the Commonwealth of the Independent States (CIS), as the region recovers from an abysmal 2015–2016. Comprehensive data confirm that regional GDP grew a solid 2.8% year-on-year in the second quarter, notably above the first quarter’s 1.1% increase. Stronger growth was seen in the majority of the region’s economies, with regional heavyweight Russia expanding at the fastest pace since Q3 2012. Large-scale investment projects helped fuel the Russian domestic economy, along with lower inflation, improved confidence and easier monetary policy.

Oil prices rally to two-year high in late September amid rebalancing of supply and demand

The economy of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region continued to expand at a moderate pace on diverging trends, with oil-producing countries feeling the effects of OPEC-dictated cuts and oil-importing economies benefiting from resilient domestic demand and improving global dynamics. A second estimate for the region shows that growth was 2.0% in the second quarter, slightly below the 2.2% year-on-year increase initially reported. The downward revision followed more complete data for the region’s individual economies, which saw Saudi Arabia falling further into contractionary territory and Qatar struggling to grow in annual terms.

REAL SECTOR | Activity firms across the majority of SSA economies in Q2

More comprehensive data reveals that the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) economy’s recovery accelerated in the second quarter, albeit at a slightly slower pace than estimated last month. According to a second estimate compiled by FocusEconomics, regional GDP increased 2.6% annually in Q2, a notch below the preliminary estimate of 2.5% growth. However, the result is a notable improvement from Q1’s 1.9% increase as a turnaround in the region’s two largest economies—Nigeria and South Africa—shored up growth.