Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

Global growth is set to ease this year

Global growth is set to ease this year, due largely to weaker momentum in developed economies and China. However, tight labor markets and more accommodative monetary policy should provide some support. A further escalation of trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, is the key downside risk.

The region’s growth prospects were chopped for a fifth consecutive month in September, chiefly on deteriorating expectations for Argentina, Chile, Mexico and Peru. Headwinds from global trade tensions, slowing activity in China, downbeat confidence, subdued commodities prices and Argentina’s crisis will limit momentum this year. 

Regional growth is seen rising this year from last. A recovery in Puerto Rico and a likely acceleration in Panama should more than offset slower momentum in the rest of the region. Political uncertainty in Nicaragua, exposure to natural disasters and uncertainty over the future of the TPS program in the U.S. are downside risks to the outlook.

The U.S.-China trade war continues to hinder the regional outlook, exacting a toll on the region’s external sectors. That said, accommodative fiscal and monetary policies should allay the bite from the trade row. While the recent reopening in trade talks could reduce trade tensions going forward, a slowdown in China, and a potential trade reescalation are forefront risks.

East Asian economies are expected to decelerate in 2019

The East Asian economy is seen decelerating this year as export-driven economies face headwinds from escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, which are adding to already strong headwinds against the global economy. More supportive fiscal and monetary policies should, however, support growth.

Activity is seen slowing sharply this year

Central & Eastern Europe growth to decelerate in 2019

While regional growth will decelerate this year on supply-side constraints and in tandem with the European slowdown, resilient domestic demand will buttress the overall economy. Co-financed investment projects and low interest rates will support investment activity, while tight labor markets and fast wage increases will spur consumer spending.

The Turkish downturn set to drag on regional activity

Regional economic growth is expected to slow in 2019, largely due to a contraction in Turkey. Moreover, a weaker Euro area will likely weigh on external demand. That said, domestic metrics should support growth, underpinned by healthy private consumption and capital spending. Ongoing trade tensions, the EU slowdown and a fragile political climate in Turkey cloud the outlook.

The Russian downturn to reverberate across most of the CIS economies in 2019

The slowdown in Russia, led by lackluster consumer demand and a bleak external backdrop, continues to subdue the regional outlook. In contrast to most economies, growth will accelerate in Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan thanks to solid mining sector activity. Outside the region, Ukraine’s outlook improved amid an upturn in Q2 and a more stable political backdrop. 

Economic activity in MENA to be expected to be stable in 2019  compared to last

Although growth in MENA will be broadly stable this year, the result masks differing economic performances within the region. Particularly, growth among some oil-export-driven economies will moderate, while economies powered by domestic demand will strengthen. Fluctuations in oil prices and geopolitical risks will shape developments in the region.

Regional growth prospects were cut in October, mainly by expectations of Angola remaining in recession and on weaker outlooks for smaller economies like DR Congo, Mozambique and Zambia. Still-elevated trade tensions, commodity-price volatility, a weakening global economy, the slow pace of domestic reforms, corruption challenges, and policy uncertainty cloud the outlook.