Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

Global economy continues to fire on all cylinders, while trade war looms

The economic fundamentals that led global growth to post the strongest expansion in six years in 2017 remain firmly in place. A preliminary GDP dataset showed that the global economy expanded 3.5% annually in Q1, matching both last month’s estimate and the expansion recorded in Q3 and Q4 2017. A solid trade cycle, relatively accommodative financial conditions and resilient private consumption in the wake of historically low unemployment rates in most large economies, including Japan and the United States, were the main factors behind Q1’s robust growth rate.

Recovery hits soft patch in first quarter; financial volatility returns to the region  

Available data suggest that Latin America’s economy lost some steam at the start of 2018, as the region’s recovery continues to be bumpy. Regional GDP growth is expected to have come in at 1.7% annually in the first quarter, below the fourth quarter’s nearly four-year high of 2.0%. While regional growth has notably improved since a tough 2015–2016, economic slack and vulnerabilities still exist in many economies, which is keeping the recovery uneven overall.

Preliminary estimates suggest the economy of Central America and the Caribbean remained in good shape at the outset of the year, with growth expected to come in at 2.7% year-on-year in Q1, matching Q4’s figure. Data for the Dominican Republic shows that the economy expanded at a breakneck speed of 6.4% in the first quarter, supported by solid tourism growth and monetary easing since the middle of last year, which has shored up economic sentient and boosted credit growth.

ASEAN: Fair winds sustain economic momentum in Q1

A preliminary estimate of GDP growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) shows the regional economy sailed smoothly in the first quarter, benefiting from tight labor markets, relatively accommodative monetary conditions and resilient global trade flows. The region’s economy is expected to have expanded 5.3% on an annual basis in the first quarter, matching the increase recorded in the previous quarter and slightly above the 5.2% rise previously projected.

Specter of full-scale trade war does not derail ESA’s stellar growth trajectory

The economy of East and South Asia (ESA) continues to defy any sign of an economic slowdown due to a combination of largely loose financial conditions in the region and a robust global trade cycle. A preliminary estimate shows that ESA countries expanded an aggregated 6.3% annually in Q1, matching both Q4’s print and last month’s forecast.

Euro Area: Downbeat data suggests soft start to 2018 

A string of weaker economic data suggests that the Eurozone economy decelerated at the start of 2018, following a robust spell of growth last year. While GDP data for the first quarter is still outstanding, monthly indicators have been soft, with economic sentiment falling throughout the quarter, and industrial production dropping in January and February. That said, the tailwinds of last year’s solid growth remain largely in place, and the slowdown is likely to be moderate thanks to a tightening labor market and ultra-accommodative monetary policy. FocusEconomics analysts expect GDP to have expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% over the previous quarter in Q1, down from Q4’s 0.7% expansion.

Economy loses steam in Q1 after stellar 2017

Recent data suggests that the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economy lost some momentum at the start of 2018, following the best performance in a decade last year. The Consensus Forecast is for regional GDP to have expanded 4.4% annually in Q1, below Q4’s 5.0% increase. Despite the anticipated slowdown, the estimate still marks a robust reading for the CEE economy, which is benefiting from several tailwinds including tight labor markets, soaring investment and accommodative monetary policy.

Economic growth likely continued to ease in first quarter but remained robust

South-Eastern Europe’s (SEE) economy is expected to have grown 4.7% in Q1, down from Q4’s impressive 5.8% expansion, which had marked the second fastest rate in nearly a decade. Although hard GDP data is still outstanding for virtually all the countries in the region, a loss of momentum in Turkey likely drove the slowdown. The Turkish economy appears to have lost steam on tighter credit conditions—as Turkish banks were unable to maintain last year’s blistering pace of credit growth—and elevated inflation dampening purchasing power. This comes after fiscal stimulus caused growth to come in markedly above potential last year. However, the regional giant’s pace of growth remained robust, with business confidence still firmly in positive territory throughout the quarter and industrial production solid in January and February.

Economy gathers steam at start of 2018, but political worries intensify

MENA: Political instability threatens to dash gains from the recent oil price rally 

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional economy appears to have gained steam at the outset of this year, mainly due to higher oil prices, strong external demand and stabilization policies and reforms in some countries. According to an estimate prepared by FocusEconomics, the MENA economy expanded an aggregated 2.7% year-on-year in the January–March period, which would represent a sharp improvement over the 1.0% rise in the October–December period of 2017 (previously reported: +1.2% year-on-year).

Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth hits over two-year high in Q4

A more complete set of data revealed that growth edged up in Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) economy in the final quarter of 2017, as the region’s gradual recovery continued. Regional GDP increased 3.2% annually in Q4, above last month’s preliminary estimate of a 3.0% expansion and Q3’s 3.0% increase. The reading marked the fastest growth rate since Q3 2015 as higher commodity prices, solid global growth and healthier harvests boosted activity. For 2017 as a whole, the SSA economy grew 2.8%, notably above 2016’s 1.8%.