Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

Global economic growth is seen stable next year

Global economic growth is seen broadly stable this year, as weaker momentum in the G7 and China will be offset by stronger growth in other emerging markets . While the recent “phase one” U.S.-China deal should provide some support to global activity, trade tensions will likely persist, while possible social unrest and U.S.-Iran conflict pose further risks.

This year, regional growth is expected to bounce back from 2019’s weak showing as momentum in Brazil strengthens and activity in Mexico gradually recovers, with both economies supported by looser monetary conditions. Global trade uncertainty, exacerbated by the coronavirus outbreak; policy uncertainty domestically; and renewed social tensions cloud the outlook.

Regional economic growth is expected to decelerate slightly this year, due to slower growth in. Economic activity is seen losing some dynamic in the Dominican Republic,  and Guatemala, and while growth in Puerto Rico is expected to soften markedly. Key downside risks to the outlook include a stronger-than-expected moderation in the U.S., social tensions  and a vulnerability to natural disasters.

Coronavirus sent shockwaves through ASEAN in recent weeks, leading many panelists to downgrade forecasts, particularly in Malaysia, Singapore  and Thailand. Even so, growth in several ASEAN countries is still projected to accelerate or stay stable this year, thanks to strong domestic demand. U.S.-China trade tensions remain a main factor for the outlook.

East Asian economies set to lose momentum in 2020

East Asian economic growth is expected to slow for the third consecutive year in 2020 as the coronavirus outbreak deepens the Chinese slowdown and disrupts regional supply chains and travel. Accommodative fiscal and monetary policies should support growth, although an intensification of the coronavirus and trade tensions represent downside risks.

Growth slipped in the final quarter of 2019 as the French and Italian economies both unexpectedly contracted. More broadly, prolonged weakness in the bloc’s industrial sector amid weak external demand, coupled with policy uncertainties at home, have likely continued to constrain growth. Improved economic sentiment and a stable PMI in January, however, suggest momentum strengthened somewhat at the start of 2020. Meanwhile, in politics, Irish voters head to the polls; Slovenia’s Prime Minister resigned on disputes over healthcare funding; Austria’s conservative People’s Party struck an unprecedented coalition deal with the Greens; Pedro Sánchez was confirmed as Spain's prime minister; and Italy’s ruling coalition seems to have dodged a government crisis. Moreover, the European Parliament backed Britain’s departure from the European Union, with negotiations now turning to trade talks

Central & Eastern Europe growth  is seen shifting into a lower gear this year

This year, prospects for the regional economy are much improved compared to 2019, mainly owing to a rebounding Turkish economy. Elsewhere, still-cheap credit and a tighter labor market should feed through to wages and further support regional activity. However, external headwinds darken the horizon due to lingering trade tensions and soft momentum in the EU.

Economic activity in CIS Countries is set to propel regional growth in 2020

Regional growth should recover this year following a poor performance in 2019, due to a much smaller contraction in Iran and an improvement in the oil sector thanks to a favorable base of comparison. However, OPEC+ cuts will still cap the oil sector’s contribution, while widespread geopolitical tensions and social unrest in several countries pose downside risks to the outlook.

Growth is expected to accelerate in 2020