Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

Global growth dims in the third quarter

The global economy lost steam in the third quarter following the second quarter’s strong showing. A comprehensive GDP estimate for the global economy put year-on-year growth at 3.2% for Q3, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s preliminary estimate and below Q2’s 3.4% increase.

Growth remains lackluster in the third quarter amid conflicting dynamics

A preliminary estimate revealed that growth in the Latin American economy was unchanged in the third quarter, as uneven dynamics across economies kept activity moderate. FocusEconomics estimates that regional GDP growth (excluding Venezuela) came in at 1.6% year-on-year, matching the second quarter’s reading and one of the worst results seen in the past year and a half. A less favorable external backdrop and political noise likely held back growth, despite an improving labor market.

Regional economy likely gained steam in Q3

According to a preliminary estimate, the economy of Central America and the Caribbean should have expanded 3.4% in the third quarter, which, if confirmed, would mark an acceleration from Q2’s 2.2%. Excluding Puerto Rico, growth likely picked up from 3.6% in Q2 to 3.8% in Q3.

Regional economy records a strong showing in the third quarter

According to a more complete estimate by FocusEconomics, ASEAN expanded 4.9% in the third quarter of 2018, buttressed by strong domestic demand. However, this still marks a loss of momentum from the second quarter’s 5.2% expansion.

Economic growth decelerates in Q3

Higher oil prices, contagion from this summer’s currency crises in Argentina and Turkey and mounting economic uncertainty sent economic growth in East and South Asia (ESA) to an over one-year low in the third quarter. Nevertheless, the region benefited from tight labor markets and supportive public policies in some countries, such as China and Korea. According to an estimate for the region produced by FocusEconomics, ESA countries grew an aggregated 6.1% year-on-year in the third quarter. While the print was considerably below the 6.4% expansion in the second quarter, it was still in line with the estimate reported last month.

Growth drops to five-year low in Q3

CEE keeps pace through third quarter

Preliminary estimates revealed that growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) held up in the third quarter, defying expectations of a slowdown. Regional growth was penciled-in at 4.2% year-on-year in the third quarter), matching the second quarter as the slowest expansion in nearly two years but beating analysts’ expectations of a more tapered 3.8% outturn nonetheless. Although comprehensive third-quarter national accounts are outstanding throughout the region, available indicators suggest that the region’s economic momentum was sustained thanks to upbeat internal dynamics—and, in particular, due to private-sector spending and public-sector investment. This likely offset weaker external demand, which appeared to ebb through the quarter amid cooling demand from the Eurozone and the unfolding economic crisis in Turkey.

The regional economy hits a patch of turbulence in the third quarter

According to a preliminary estimate by FocusEconomics, South-Eastern Europe’s (SEE) economy endured a bumpy third quarter, with growth weakening markedly to 2.6% from 4.3% annually in Q2.

CIS economy stutters in Q3; tensions between Russia and Ukraine flare up

A preliminary estimate revealed that growth slid notably in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in the third quarter. Regional GDP expanded 1.8% annually, well below Q2’s 2.4% increase and the worst reading seen so far this year. Poor agricultural output hampered regional growth in the quarter, due to poor weather and a late harvest, while sluggish momentum in Russia likely spilled over into some of the region’s smaller economies.

 Regional growth likely robust in Q3 despite Iran’s drag

According to an estimate by FocusEconomics, the MENA economy expanded 2.2% annually in the third quarter. If confirmed, this would mark a slight deceleration from the second quarter’s 2.4% growth.

Heavyweights under pressure in Q2

Comprehensive second-quarter data revealed an unexpectedly downbeat outturn for the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economy, which faltered mid-year as the region’s heavyweights staggered. Regional growth in the second quarter was slashed to 2.2% year-on-year, down significantly from both preliminary estimates (previously reported: +2.8% year-on-year) and the outset of the year (Q1: +2.6% year-on-year). Despite deteriorating metrics in Angola, Nigeria and South Africa, the region’s major players, much of the region notched faster gains as export-oriented economies continued shaking off the commodity slump. Economic tailwinds, including favorable weather conditions and firmer commodity prices, look set to persist through the remainder of the year; in line with anticipated upturns in Angola, Nigeria and South Africa, FocusEconomics expects regional growth to have recovered in the third quarter, to 3.0% year-on-year.