Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

Global economic growth is seen stable next year

Global economic growth is seen broadly stable this year, as weaker momentum in the G7 and China will be offset by stronger growth in other emerging markets . While the recent “phase one” U.S.-China deal should provide some support to global activity, trade tensions will likely persist, while possible social unrest and U.S.-Iran conflict pose further risks.

After a subdued 2019, regional growth is projected to gain some pace this year on stronger activity in heavyweights Mexico and, especially, Brazil. Rising domestic demand will underpin the overall expansion, helped by supportive monetary policy and improving sentiment. Still-lingering trade tensions, domestic policy uncertainty and social discontent remain key risks to the outlook.

Growth is seen ebbing slightly  this year as weaker momentum in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico seems set to outweigh faster growth in Costa Rica and Panama. Downside risks stem from a potential faster-than-expected U.S. slowdown; social tensions in countries such as Haiti, Honduras and Nicaragua ; and a vulnerability to natural disasters.

Most economies in ASEAN are projected to gain momentum in 2020

The impetus from laxer fiscal and monetary stances should keep domestic demand healthy, while many external sectors are seen recovering from lackluster 2019 performances. Developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations will remain a pivotal factor for the outlook, given the region’s reliance on trade.

East Asian economies set to lose momentum in 2020

East Asian economic growth is expected to slow for the third consecutive year in 2020 due to subdued global growth; U.S.-China trade policy uncertainty, despite the “phase one” deal; and disruption stemming from measures designed to contain the new coronavirus. Accommodative fiscal and monetary policies should cushion the slowdown, however.

Growth slipped in the final quarter of 2019 as the French and Italian economies both unexpectedly contracted. More broadly, prolonged weakness in the bloc’s industrial sector amid weak external demand, coupled with policy uncertainties at home, have likely continued to constrain growth. Improved economic sentiment and a stable PMI in January, however, suggest momentum strengthened somewhat at the start of 2020. Meanwhile, in politics, Irish voters head to the polls; Slovenia’s Prime Minister resigned on disputes over healthcare funding; Austria’s conservative People’s Party struck an unprecedented coalition deal with the Greens; Pedro Sánchez was confirmed as Spain's prime minister; and Italy’s ruling coalition seems to have dodged a government crisis. Moreover, the European Parliament backed Britain’s departure from the European Union, with negotiations now turning to trade talks

Central & Eastern Europe growth  is seen shifting into a lower gear this year

Regional economic activity is expected to accelerate notably next year

The ongoing recovery in the Turkish economy should lift regional growth into a notably higher gear this year, while still-cheap credit and a tightening labor market feeding through to wages are expected to buttress activity in the region. However, external headwinds continue to darken the horizon amid lingering trade tensions and weak momentum in the European Union.

Economic activity in CIS Countries is set to propel regional growth in 2020

Economic growth is set to accelerate notably in 2020 

MENA’s regional growth is expected to recover this year, following a poor performance in 2019, due to a much smaller contraction in Iran and an expected recovery in oil output. That said, risks to the economic outlook are skewed to the downside, including a potential extension of the OPEC+ oil cut deal beyond the March deadline and widespread geopolitical risks.

Growth is expected to firm this year on the back of strengthening, albeit still relatively subdued, activity in the region’s largest and resource-rich economies of Nigeria and South Africa. Significant downside risks weigh on the outlook, however, including weak external demand, growing public debt vulnerabilities, insecurity challenges and extreme weather events.