Mountains in Uganda

Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

Annual GDP will have accelerated so far in H2 2023. Economic activity expanded at a stronger 6.9% year on year in Q3 (Q2: +5.2% yoy), marking the best result since Q2 2021. The private-sector PMI remained in expansionary territory in Q3—despite easing slightly from Q2’s average. In addition, October’s PMI revealed another improvement in business operating conditions thanks to higher employment levels and stronger demand. Moreover, both headline and core inflation receded in Q3 and further in October. This, coupled with lower interest rates since August, will have supported consumption. In other news, the U.S.—Uganda’s sixth-largest trade partner—terminated Uganda’s preferential trade status under the African Growth and Opportunity Act in late October in response to the country’s draconian anti-LGBTQ+ law adopted in May. The move bodes ill for Uganda’s import bill and export revenue.

Uganda Inflation

In October, inflation eased to a two-year low of 2.4% (September: 2.7%) on softer price increases for food, which more than offset stronger price increases for housing and utilities. In 2024, average inflation will be lower than in 2023 and slightly below the Bank of Uganda’s 5.0% target on lower year-on-year prices for key commodity imports and a base effect.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Uganda from 2013 to 2022.

Uganda Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 38.8 39.8 41.2 42.5 43.7
GDP (USD bn) 34.0 37.7 38.0 42.8 47.5
GDP per capita (USD) 876 947 921 1,007 1,085
GDP (UGX bn) 126,754 139,931 141,209 153,456 175,018
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 11.0 10.4 0.9 8.7 14.1
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 5.6 7.6 -1.2 5.6 5.8
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 7.2 8.2 0.7 7.2 -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 6.9 7.9 -0.7 7.6 -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.2 13.7 21.7 -0.4 -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 9.3 7.3 -2.4 9.0 -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.7 -14.1 -12.3 21.2 -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 8.7 -9.8 22.4 12.1 -
Industry (ann. var. %) 4.8 9.0 3.2 3.5 5.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.0 -4.8 -7.5 -7.5 -5.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 34.9 37.6 46.4 50.6 48.4
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 7.0 16.4 18.6 5.8 8.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.9 10.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.1 2.1 2.8 2.2 7.2
Central Bank Rate (%, eop) 10.00 9.00 7.00 6.50 10.00
Exchange Rate (UGX per USD, eop) 3,715 3,685 3,650 3,544 3,714
Exchange Rate (UGX per USD, aop) 3,726 3,712 3,718 3,588 3,687
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.1 -2.6 -3.7 -4.1 -3.8
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -6.1 -7.0 -9.6 -9.6 -8.0
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -2.5 -2.8 -2.6 -3.0 -3.7
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.3
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 6.1 6.9 7.1 7.5 7.9
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 5.4 12.6 8.9 0.7 -4.9
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 17.9 12.5 3.6 6.2 5.4
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.5
International Reserves (USD bn) 3.2 3.2 3.8 4.3 3.6
International Reserves (months of imports) 6.2 5.6 6.5 6.9 5.4
External Debt (USD bn) 12.3 14.0 17.2 19.2 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 36.2 37.1 45.3 44.9 -

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