Mountains in Uganda

Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

GDP growth accelerated to 7.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022, up from 6.5% in the preceding quarter, supported by a favorable base effect. Fourth quarter data is fairly positive. Monthly economic growth was solid despite easing from Q3, while the private-sector PMI averaged higher in Q4 than in Q3 and business sentiment remained optimistic. The economy started 2023 on a strong footing, with the PMI rising to a nine-month high in January. In other news, the budget framework for the fiscal year 2023–2024 was announced in January. In line with the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility, the proposed budget is set to narrow the fiscal deficit by increasing revenue and constraining expenditure, which will cap domestic demand.

Uganda Inflation

January’s inflation accelerated to 10.4% (December: 10.2%). The increase was largely due to a base effect stemming from January 2022´s drop in transport fares. However, the Bank of Uganda (BoU) maintained the policy rate at 10.00% at its 6 February meeting. Inflation will ease from current highs this year, but will remain above the BoU’s 5.0% target.

Uganda Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 37.7 38.8 39.8 41.2 42.5
GDP (USD bn) 31.6 34.1 37.8 38.1 42.6
GDP per capita (USD) 839 877 949 923 1
GDP (UGX bn) 114 126 139 141 152
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 9.1 11.3 10.2 1.1 8.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 6.8 5.5 7.8 -1.4 5.9
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 7.3 7.2 8.2 0.7 7.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 6.6 6.9 7.9 -0.7 7.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 11.1 3.2 13.7 21.7 -0.4
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 8.4 9.3 7.3 -2.4 9.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 9.9 0.7 -14.1 -12.3 21.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 6.2 8.7 -9.8 22.4 12.1
Industry (ann. var. %) 6.8 4.8 9.0 3.2 3.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.6 -3.0 -4.8 -7.5 -7.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 33.6 34.9 37.6 46.3 51.8
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 15.4 7.0 16.4 18.6 5.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 5.6 2.6 2.1 2.8 2.2
Central Bank Rate (%, eop) 9.50 10.00 9.00 7.00 6.50
Exchange Rate (UGX per USD, eop) 3 3 3 3 3
Exchange Rate (UGX per USD, aop) 3 3 3 3 3
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.5 -2.1 -2.5 -3.6 -3.6
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.8 -6.1 -6.6 -9.3 -8.3
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.7 -2.5 -2.8 -2.6 -3.0
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 3.4 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.5
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 5.2 6.1 6.9 7.1 7.5
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 18.1 5.4 12.6 8.9 0.7
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 14.3 17.9 12.5 3.6 6.2
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.1
International Reserves (USD bn) 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.8 4.3
International Reserves (months of imports) 8.4 6.2 5.6 6.5 6.9
External Debt (USD bn) 11.7 12.3 14.0 17.2 19.2
External Debt (% of GDP) 37.0 36.2 37.0 45.2 45.1

Free Sample Report

Interested in Uganda economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest