Bulgaria Economic Outlook
A small but growing economy:
Bulgaria, the EU’s poorest member state in per capita terms, has made significant economic progress since transitioning from a centrally planned economy in the 1990s. With a GDP of around $90 billion, Bulgaria has sustained steady economic growth in recent years, driven by domestic consumption, EU structural funds, and a competitive export sector. However, growth slowed in 2023 due to high inflation and weaker external demand. The country’s low debt-to-GDP ratio—one of the lowest in the EU—has given policymakers some fiscal flexibility.
Key industries:Bulgaria’s economy is anchored in industrial manufacturing, IT services, and agriculture. The country is a leading producer of copper, gold, and bismuth in Europe, and its industrial base includes chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and electronics. The IT sector has grown rapidly, benefiting from a well-educated workforce and relatively low labor costs, with Bulgaria becoming a nearshoring hub for European tech firms. Agriculture also plays a role in the economy, particularly wheat, sunflower oil, and wine production, with exports going primarily to the EU.
Challenges:Despite economic gains, Bulgaria faces structural challenges, including a shrinking and aging population, corruption concerns, and political instability. Demographic decline is one of the country’s most pressing issues, with emigration further exacerbating labor shortages. Inflation has been a persistent problem, peaking at over 15% in 2022 before easing in 2023. Corruption remains an obstacle to foreign investment, though recent governments have sought to address the issue.
Bulgaria’s economic outlook:Economic conditions in Bulgaria should improve going forward, supported by EU funding, infrastructure investment, and the ongoing digital transformation. The country aims to adopt the euro in the coming years, although persistent inflation and governance issues could delay entry into the eurozone. Demographics will remain a long-term constraint, but Bulgaria’s competitive labor costs and strategic location should help sustain investment in export-oriented industries.
Bulgaria's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 112.0 billion in 2024.
GDP per capita of USD 17,628 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 2.4% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2018, services accounted for 59% of overall GDP, manufacturing 14%, other industrial activity 24%, and agriculture 3%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 60% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 18%, fixed investment 19%, and net exports 3%.International trade
In 2020, manufactured products made up 55% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 8%, food 17%, ores and metals 13% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other categories accounting for 6% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 63% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 11%, food 12%, ores and metals 9% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other goods accounting for 4% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 46 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 52 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 2.4% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Bulgaria, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Bulgaria's fiscal deficit averaged 1.3% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 6.7% in the decade to 2024. For more information on Bulgaria's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 3.4% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Bulgaria inflation page for extra insight.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the lev weakened by 15.8% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the lev, click here.
Economic situation in Bulgaria
The economy likely ended 2024 on a stronger note. In October–November, industrial output rebounded from Q3’s average. Additionally, retail sales growth and economic sentiment improved in the quarter, largely thanks to renewed confidence in the industrial sector. Less positively, goods exports swung into decline through November, suggesting headwinds to external demand. In Q1 2025, the economy should be gaining further momentum year on year, buoyed by looser financing conditions. In politics, a new government was appointed in January following October’s snap elections, promising to end the near four-year political crisis. Though high political fragmentation continues to pose a risk to stability, the government has pledged to pass key reforms, including keeping 2025’s budget deficit below the 3% EU target and adopting the Euro, boding well for investor sentiment and EU funds inflows.Bulgaria Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.54 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 24 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Bulgaria in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 54 economic indicators for Bulgaria from a panel of 24 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Bulgaria economy. To download a sample report on the Bulgaria's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.