Economic Growth in Bulgaria
Over the past decade to 2022, Bulgaria recorded an average growth rate of 2.4% in real GDP, slightly below the Eastern Europe average of 2.5%. In 2022, real GDP growth was 3.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Bulgaria GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Bulgaria from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Bulgaria GDP Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.8 | -3.2 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 61.3 | 61.9 | 71.4 | 86.1 | 94.7 |
GDP (BGN bn) | 120 | 121 | 140 | 168 | 185 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 9.1 | 1.0 | 15.3 | 20.6 | 10.0 |
GDP (USD bn) | 68.6 | 70.6 | 84.4 | 90.5 | 102.4 |
Economy gathers momentum in Q3
GDP growth surpasses both Q2’s level and flash estimate in Q3: GDP growth ticked up to 2.4% year on year in the third quarter (Q2: +2.2% yoy), marking the strongest growth since Q1 2023. The rise was above the initial estimate of 2.2%. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth was unchanged at 0.6% in Q3, following the previous period's 0.6% increase.
Surging public spending fuels GDP acceleration: On the domestic side, the improvement largely stemmed from surging public consumption: Government spending rose 9.7% in Q3 (Q2: +4.0% yoy). Elsewhere in the economy, momentum cooled: Fixed investment contracted at a sharper pace of 1.9% in Q3 (Q2: -0.9% yoy), and private consumption growth fell to 3.9% in Q3 (Q2: +4.3% yoy), marking the weakest expansion since Q4 2023. On the external front, exports of goods and services deteriorated, contracting 0.4% in Q3 (Q2: +0.5% yoy). In addition, imports of goods and services growth moderated to 3.0% in Q3 (Q2: +4.1% yoy).
Economy to strengthen in 2025: Looking ahead, annual GDP growth should remain near Q3’s level in Q4 before rising through the end of 2025. During next year as a whole, the economy will accelerate above both 2024’s projected level and the prior 10-year average of 2.7% thanks to stronger expansions in fixed investment and exports. Downside risks include a prolonged political impasse, delayed EU funds absorption and weaker-than-expected EU demand due to rising U.S. tariffs under President-elect Trump.
Panelist insight: EIU analysts said: “With consumer inflation slowing, private consumption will remain the main driver of growth in 2025, boosted by still-strong real wage growth. […] After slowing in 2024 amid low take-up of EU funds, we expect gross fixed investment growth to pick up in 2025. However, the absence of a stable government (which is likely to persist until at least the second quarter of 2025) threatens to continue delaying the disbursement of EU funds, and could lead to weaker than expected public investment.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Bulgarian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 24 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Bulgarian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Bulgarian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Bulgarian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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