Underlying picture less positive than headline reading: GDP growth improved to 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis...
Economic Growth in Bulgaria
Over the past decade to 2022, Bulgaria recorded an average growth rate of 2.4% in real GDP, slightly below the Eastern Europe average of 2.5%. In 2022, real GDP growth was 3.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Bulgaria GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Bulgaria from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Bulgaria GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 70.6 | 84.4 | 90.5 | 102.4 | 112.2 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 61.9 | 71.4 | 86.1 | 94.7 | 103.7 |
| GDP (BGN bn) | 121 | 140 | 168 | 185 | 203 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.0 | 15.3 | 20.6 | 10.0 | 9.5 |
GDP growth edges down in the first quarter but remains robust by regional standards
GDP reading: According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth waned to 3.1% year on year in the first quarter from 3.4% in the fourth quarter of last year. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth ebbed to 0.6% in Q1, compared to the previous period's 0.9% expansion and marking the worst reading since Q4 2023. Both the year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter readings easily outpaced the EU average—partly to be expected given Bulgaria’s relatively low GDP per capita and thus higher potential for catch-up growth.
Domestic demand was key driver: The year-on-year expansion was driven by consumption and investment, while external trade was weak: Exports contracted and imports surged in Q1. Double-digit wage growth, low unemployment and easing financial conditions were likely all factors that aided domestic demand in Q1.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Bulgarian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 22 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Bulgarian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Bulgarian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Bulgarian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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