Jamaica Economic Outlook
A services-driven economy:
Jamaica is a small, open economy heavily reliant on services, with tourism, financial services, and remittances serving as key pillars of economic activity. The country has made strides in macroeconomic stabilization over the past decade, implementing structural reforms to improve debt sustainability and fiscal discipline. However, GDP growth has remained modest, averaging around 1–2% annually. The economy was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, contracting by 10% in 2020 due to a sharp decline in tourism, but rebounded with 8.2% growth in 2021 as travel restrictions eased.
Tourism and remittances as economic anchors:Tourism is Jamaica’s largest foreign exchange earner, contributing nearly 30% of GDP and employing a significant share of the workforce. The sector has recovered strongly post-pandemic, with visitor arrivals surpassing pre-COVID levels in 2023. Meanwhile, remittances—mainly from Jamaicans in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K.—account for over 15% of GDP, providing crucial income support to households and driving consumption. However, this reliance on external income streams makes the economy vulnerable to global downturns.
Debt reduction and fiscal consolidation:Jamaica has successfully reduced its public debt burden, which peaked at over 140% of GDP in the early 2010s, to around 80% in 2023. This was achieved through fiscal reforms, IMF-backed economic programs, and improved revenue collection. Despite progress, high debt service costs continue to limit public investment in infrastructure, healthcare, and education. Inflation, though moderating, remains a concern, prompting the Bank of Jamaica to maintain a tight monetary policy stance.
Structural challenges and diversification efforts:While tourism and remittances are key economic drivers, Jamaica faces structural weaknesses, including low productivity, high energy costs, and crime-related security concerns that deter investment. The government has prioritized economic diversification by promoting manufacturing, agriculture, and logistics, with initiatives such as the Special Economic Zones (SEZs) aimed at attracting foreign direct investment. The country also has potential in renewable energy and the digital economy, but progress has been slow.
Jamaica’s economic outlook:The economy of Jamaica is projected to expand by 2–3% in the coming years, supported by tourism growth, remittance inflows, and continued fiscal discipline. However, risks remain, including global economic slowdowns, vulnerability to natural disasters, and security challenges. To ensure long-term economic resilience, Jamaica will need to sustain structural reforms, enhance infrastructure, and create a more conducive business environment to attract investment beyond tourism.
Jamaica's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 19.4 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 7,072 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 0.8% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 60% of overall GDP, manufacturing 8%, other industrial activity 23%, and agriculture 9%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 76% of GDP in 2021, government consumption 17%, fixed investment 22%, and net exports -15%.International trade
In 2020, manufactured products made up 3% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 29%, food 30%, ores and metals 38% and agricultural raw materials 0%, with other categories accounting for 0% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 51% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 27%, food 21%, ores and metals 0% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other goods accounting for 0% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 2 billion in 2023, while total imports were USD 6 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 0.8% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Jamaica, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Jamaica's fiscal balance was stable in the decade to 2024. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 9.3% in the decade to 2024. For more information on Jamaica's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 5.5% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Jamaica inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Jamaica's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 6.00%, up from 5.75% a decade earlier. See our Jamaica monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the Jamaican dollar weakened by 26.5% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the Jamaican dollar, click here.
Economic situation in Jamaica
The economy swung into contraction in annual terms in Q3 due to the fallout from Hurricane Beryl, which hit the country in July. Key sectors that weakened considerably include accommodation, agriculture, construction, manufacturing, mining and trade. Shifting to Q4, the economy is likely to have regained some momentum as the country began recovering from the hurricane. Private consumption likely strengthened, as price pressures cooled in Q4 and remittance inflows rebounded in October. In addition, tourist arrivals declined at a milder pace in the first two months of the quarter. Moreover, the ongoing monetary policy easing cycle should have stimulated domestic activity. Meanwhile, Jamaican nationals residing in the U.S. have come under increased pressure following Trump’s reelection. While mass deportations would dent remittance inflows, they could provide much-needed skilled labor.Jamaica Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.43 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 12 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Jamaica in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 43 economic indicators for Jamaica from a panel of 12 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Jamaica economy. To download a sample report on the Jamaica's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.