India

India Economic Forecast

India Economic Outlook

After growing 6.1% in January–March, GDP surged 7.8% year on year in April–June 2023 (Q1 FY 2023). Consumers hiked their spending more than in the prior quarter as inflation fell and confidence in the economy rose. Economic growth is projected by our panelists to cool slightly in July–September but remain among the strongest in Asia. Services activity rose the most in 13 years in July compared to the prior month but then increased slightly less sharply the following month, likely due to a recent uptick in inflation and a loss of agricultural income following the driest August in 120 years. In other news, analysts widely labeled the recent G20 summit held in New Delhi as a victory for India, cementing its role as a rising power by getting G20 leaders to agree on a joint declaration despite divisions between the West and Russia.

India Inflation

Inflation eased to 6.8% in August from 7.4% in July, as vegetable prices normalized after spiking in July. Looking ahead, our panelists expect inflation to return to the Central Bank’s 2.0–6.0% target range by the end of this calendar year and then trend down to somewhat above the midpoint of the target range in FY 2024 as weather conditions normalize.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for India from 2013 to 2022.

India Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 1,369 1,383 1,396 1,410 1,423
GDP (USD bn) 2,703 2,835 2,671 3,150 3,391
GDP per capita (USD) 1,974 2,050 1,913 2,234 2,382
GDP (INR bn) 188,997 201,036 198,299 234,710 272,407
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 10.6 6.4 -1.4 18.4 16.1
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 6.5 3.9 -5.8 9.1 7.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 7.1 5.2 -5.2 11.2 7.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 6.7 3.9 -0.9 6.6 0.1
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 11.2 1.1 -7.3 14.6 11.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 11.9 -3.4 -9.1 29.3 13.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 8.8 -0.8 -13.7 21.8 17.1
Agriculture (ann. var. %) 2.1 6.2 4.1 3.5 4.0
Industry (ann. var. %) 5.3 -1.4 -0.9 11.6 4.4
Services (ann. var. %) 7.2 6.4 -8.2 8.8 9.5
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.8 -0.8 -8.5 11.4 5.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.4 -4.6 -9.2 -6.8 -6.4
Public Debt (% of GDP) 70.4 75.0 88.5 84.7 83.1
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 14.1 11.1 16.1 10.7 6.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.9 5.8 5.5 7.0 5.7
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.4 4.8 6.2 5.5 6.7
Inflation (WPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.1 0.4 7.9 14.6 1.4
Inflation (WPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.3 1.7 1.3 13.0 9.4
RBI Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 6.25 4.40 4.00 4.00 6.50
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 7.35 6.14 6.18 6.84 7.31
Stock Market (ann. var. of BSE SENSEX %) 5.9 14.4 15.8 22.0 4.4
Exchange Rate (INR per USD, eop) 69.29 75.35 73.16 75.86 82.14
Exchange Rate (INR per USD, aop) 68.41 70.41 74.12 73.94 78.60
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -57.2 -24.2 24.6 -39.0 -66.5
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.1 -0.9 0.9 -1.2 -2.0
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -184 -161 -100 -191 -272
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 330 313 292 422 438
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 514 475 392 613 709
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 8.8 -5.1 -6.9 44.7 3.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 10.6 -7.7 -17.4 56.4 15.7
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 30.7 43.0 44.0 38.6 28.0
International Reserves (USD bn) 413 478 577 607 578
International Reserves (months of imports) 9.6 12.1 17.7 11.9 9.8
External Debt (USD bn) 543 558 574 619 624
External Debt (% of GDP) 20.1 19.7 21.5 19.7 18.4

Free Sample Report

Interested in India economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest