Merchandise exports drop in May

Latest reading: Merchandise exports decreased 2.2% annually in May, contrasting April’s 9.0% increase. Meanwhile, merchandise imports fell 1.7% over the same month last year in May (April: +19.1% yoy). As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 21.9 billion deficit in May (April 2025: USD 26.4 billion deficit; May 2024: USD 22.1 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 289.9 billion deficit in May, compared to the USD 290.1 billion deficit in April.

Outlook: Our panelists continue to expect India’s merchandise exports to grow fairly weakly in 2025, largely as a result of U.S. tariffs stifling external demand. The Indian government continues to seek an agreement with its U.S. counterpart to avoid tariffs rising to 26% from 10% on 9 July.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Indian trade projections for the next ten years from a panel of 9 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable trade forecast available for Indian trade.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Indian trade projections.

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