City in Nigeria

Nigeria Economic Data & Projections

Nigeria Economic Outlook

Africa’s largest economy:

Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa, with a GDP exceeding $500 billion, driven by its vast oil and gas reserves. However, despite its size, the country struggles with deep structural economic issues, including weak infrastructure, high inflation, and low foreign investment. Growth has been sluggish in recent years, averaging around 2-3%, barely keeping up with population expansion, which is among the fastest in the world.

Oil dependency and diversification struggles:

Nigeria’s economy remains highly dependent on oil, which accounts for over 90% of export earnings and a significant portion of government revenue. However, fluctuating oil prices and production disruptions—often due to militant attacks in the Niger Delta—have led to volatile economic performance. The government has made attempts to diversify the economy, particularly in agriculture, manufacturing, and technology, but these sectors still struggle with inadequate investment and poor infrastructure.

High inflation and currency challenges:

Nigeria’s recent economic indicators have made for dour reading. The country faces persistently high inflation, which has remained in the double digits for years, eroding consumer purchasing power. The country also grapples with currency instability, exacerbated by a dollar shortage and a complex exchange rate system. Recent moves to unify the exchange rate have led to significant depreciation of the naira, adding to inflationary pressures.

Challenges and risks:

Nigeria’s business environment is hampered by security concerns, corruption, and weak governance. The ongoing insurgency in the northeast, banditry in the northwest, and secessionist tensions in the southeast create an uncertain investment climate. Additionally, power shortages and inadequate transport infrastructure further hinder industrial growth and productivity.

Nigeria’s economic outlook:

In the medium term, Nigeria’s growth predictions remain modest, driven by the non-oil sector, including fintech and digital services. However, sustaining growth will require bold economic reforms, including fixing the foreign exchange system, improving electricity supply, and creating a more business-friendly regulatory environment. Without these changes, Nigeria risks falling further behind in Africa’s economic race.

Nigeria's Macroeconomic Analysis:

Nominal GDP of USD 363 billion in 2023.

GDP per capita of USD 1,636 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

Average real GDP growth of 2.3% over the last decade.

Share of the region's population
Share of the region's GDP

Sector Analysis

In 2021, services accounted for 45% of overall GDP, manufacturing 15%, other industrial activity 17%, and agriculture 23%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 62% of GDP in 2021, government consumption 5%, fixed investment 34%, and net exports -1%.

GDP by economic sector
GDP by type of expenditure

International trade

In 2021, manufactured products made up 6% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 89%, food 3%, ores and metals 1% and agricultural raw materials 0%, with other categories accounting for 1% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 53% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 31%, food 14%, ores and metals 1% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other goods accounting for 0% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 64 billion in 2022, while total imports were USD 58 billion.

Key exports
Key imports
Key export partners
Key import partners

Main Economic Indicators

Economic growth

The economy recorded average annual growth of 2.3% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Nigeria, go to our dedicated page.

Fiscal policy

Nigeria's fiscal deficit averaged 4.4% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.

Unemployment

The unemployment rate averaged 4.5% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Nigeria's unemployment click here.

Inflation

Inflation averaged 16.3% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Nigeria inflation page for extra insight.

Monetary Policy

Nigeria's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 27.50%, up from 13.00% a decade earlier. See our Nigeria monetary policy page for additional details.

Exchange Rate

From end-2014 to end-2024 the naira weakened by 89.1% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the naira, click here.

Economic situation in Nigeria

Annual economic growth accelerated in Q3 from Q2 due to larger expansions in the services and construction sectors. That said, growth in the oil sector slowed. Turning to Q4, our Consensus is for GDP growth to have softened relative to Q3. Credit growth slowed in October–November from Q3, and merchandise exports fell at a steeper rate in October than in the prior quarter. Additionally, price pressures intensified and oil output growth decelerated in Q4. In other news, in late December, the Warri refinery restarted production after a four-year hiatus, boding well for the country’s efforts to reduce its reliance on fuel imports. Meanwhile, in January, the country became a partner state of the BRICS bloc, which should translate into greater economic development opportunities and deeper ties with members of the group.

Nigeria Economic Forecasts

Projections out to 2034.

45 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.

Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 21 expert analysts.

Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Nigeria in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 45 economic indicators for Nigeria from a panel of 21 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Nigeria economy. To download a sample report on the Nigeria's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.

Nigeria Economic Indicators

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Exchange Rate (NGN per USD, eop) 307 380 413 449 899
Exchange Rate (NGN per USD, aop) 306 356 399 423 645
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 13.50 11.50 11.50 16.50 18.75
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.2 5.7 5.5 3.8 3.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -13.7 -16.0 -3.3 3.5 6.0
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 12.0 15.8 15.6 21.3 28.9
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 8.8 61.6 -34.0 -9.9 12.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 11.4 13.2 17.0 18.8 24.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -1.1 -1.7 25.6 -4.1 -10.9
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.9 -3.7 -0.7 0.7 1.7
External Debt (USD bn) 81.4 87.6 96.3 103.1 102.5
External Debt (% of GDP) 17.1 20.2 21.8 21.6 28.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.7 -5.6 -5.5 -5.4 -4.2
GDP per capita (USD) 2,365 2,100 2,087 2,205 1,636
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 6.1 -44.7 30.4 37.1 -13.1
Industry (ann. var. %) 2.3 -5.8 -0.5 -4.6 0.7
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 1.0 0.3 15.2 -3.2 -6.7
GDP (USD bn) 475 433 441 478 363
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 65.0 35.9 46.9 64.2 55.8
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 6.3 31.4 17.5 16.5 52.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.3 -1.9 3.4 3.1 2.7
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 27.3 -61.9 44.4 53.9 -18.4
GDP (NGN bn) 145,639 154,252 176,076 202,365 234,426
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 12.8 5.9 14.1 14.9 15.8
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 15.0 -33.4 -32.1 69.1 28.2
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.5 8.1 9.5 7.6 8.3
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 52.4 -15.7 -1.8 13.2 -18.0
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 62.1 52.3 51.4 58.2 47.7
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 8.3 -14.7 4.7 3.3 6.6
International Reserves (USD bn) 38.6 35.4 40.5 37.1 32.9
Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 1.79 1.58 1.38 1.20 1.31
Population (million) 201 206 211 217 222
Public Debt (% of GDP) 29.2 34.5 35.7 39.7 46.4
Stock Market (ann. var. of NSE %) -16.9 39.2 2.3 9.8 51.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 2.9 -16.4 -4.6 6.0 8.1
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2.3 2.4 3.3 0.9 1.9
Free Sample Report

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