City in Nigeria

Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

Annual economic growth accelerated in Q2 thanks to sturdier activity in the agricultural and services sectors. On the flip side, the industrial sector swung into contraction, and the oil sector shrank at a sharper rate. Shifting to Q3, available data points to resilient growth. Relative to Q2’s average, credit growth picked up steam in July, while oil production grew at a sharper annual rate in July–August. That said, inflation rose in July and August due to a plummeting naira and higher petrol prices, following a battery of reforms at the end of Q2. Soaring price pressures weighed on private sector conditions throughout the quarter, according to PMI data. Meanwhile, in late August, the national oil company NNPC received a USD 3 billion crude oil repayment from Afreximbank (African Export-Import Bank), which will help stabilize the naira, thus reducing fuel costs.

Nigeria Inflation

Inflation came in at 25.8% in August, up from July’s 24.1%. The acceleration was broad-based, and stemmed from a weak naira and the removal of fuel subsidies in May. These factors are set to continue driving up inflation during the remainder of the year. Monetary policy and fuel prices are key factors to watch ahead.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Nigeria from 2013 to 2022.

Nigeria Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 196 201 206 211 217
GDP (USD bn) 357 403 406 440 478
GDP per capita (USD) 1,824 2,007 1,970 2,080 2,207
GDP (NGN bn) 129,087 145,639 154,252 176,076 202,365
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 12.3 12.8 5.9 14.1 14.9
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.9 2.3 -1.9 3.4 3.1
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 7.3 1.0 0.3 15.2 -3.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.6 -1.1 -1.7 25.6 -4.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 39.9 8.8 61.6 -34.0 -9.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 9.7 8.3 -14.7 4.7 3.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.9 15.0 -33.4 -32.1 69.1
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 49.2 27.3 -61.9 44.4 53.9
Industry (ann. var. %) 1.9 2.3 -5.8 -0.5 -2.3
Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 1.72 1.79 1.58 1.38 1.20
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 22.6 - - - -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.3 -4.7 -5.6 -6.0 -5.5
Public Debt (% of GDP) 27.7 29.2 34.5 36.5 38.0
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 12.1 6.3 31.4 17.5 16.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 11.4 12.0 15.8 15.6 21.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 12.1 11.4 13.2 17.0 18.8
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 14.00 13.50 11.50 11.50 16.50
Stock Market (ann. var. of NSE %) -18.9 -16.9 39.2 2.3 9.8
Exchange Rate (NGN per USD, eop) 364 362 381 411 448
Exchange Rate (NGN per USD, aop) 361 361 380 400 423
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 7.3 -13.7 -16.0 -3.3 1.0
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.0 -3.4 -3.9 -0.7 0.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 20.5 2.9 -16.4 -4.6 6.0
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 61.2 65.0 35.9 46.9 64.2
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 40.8 62.1 52.3 51.4 58.2
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 33.6 6.1 -44.7 30.4 37.1
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 24.7 52.4 -15.7 -1.8 13.2
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.8 2.3 2.4 3.3 -0.2
International Reserves (USD bn) 43.1 38.6 35.4 40.5 37.1
International Reserves (months of imports) 12.7 7.5 8.1 9.5 7.6
External Debt (USD bn) 54.2 60.0 70.5 76.2 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 15.2 14.9 17.4 17.3 -

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