Nigeria Exports (G&S, ann. var. %)

GDP growth improves in Q4

The Nigerian economy closed 2022 with a bang as economic growth accelerated. GDP expanded at a stronger 3.5% year on year in the fourth quarter, accelerating from the 2.2% growth tallied in the third quarter. Q4’s upturn brought overall GDP growth for 2022 to 3.1%, only slightly below the 3.4% post-pandemic rebound seen in 2021.

The non-oil sector of the economy was the engine of growth—as it has been since late 2020. Growth in the sector picked up to 4.4% year on year in Q4 (Q3: +4.3% yoy). The acceleration chiefly reflected the agricultural sector gaining steam and growing 2.0% in Q4 (Q3:+1.3% yoy). That said, severe floods in the quarter capped the overall improvement. Meanwhile, the industrial sector shrank at a more moderate rate of 0.9% in Q4, improving from the 8.0% contraction logged in the prior quarter. Lastly, the services sector grew a softer 5.7% annually in the fourth quarter, slowing from the third quarter’s 7.0% increase. Despite the moderation, the sector’s contribution to overall growth was a larger 56.3% in Q4, up from the previous period’s 52.0%.

The key oil sector, meanwhile, continued to be a drag on overall growth, albeit less so than in previous quarters. In Q4, the sector posted a 13.4% decline, a more moderate contraction than Q3’s 22.7% plunge. Oil production rose to 1.34 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q4 from 1.20 mbpd in the previous three months. The improvement in production was largely due to the government’s ongoing crackdown on oil theft and the restoration of operations at a terminal in November.