City in Nigeria

Nigeria GDP

Nigeria GDP

Economic Growth in Nigeria

Nigeria's economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.2% in the decade to 2022, below the 3.0% average for Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2022, real GDP growth was 3.1%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Nigeria GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Nigeria from 2014 to 2023.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics Nigeria.

Nigeria GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.9 2.3 -1.9 3.4 3.1
GDP (USD bn) 422 475 433 441 478
GDP (NGN bn) 129,087 145,639 154,252 176,076 202,365
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 12.3 12.8 5.9 14.1 14.9

GDP growth records best result in one year in Q4 2023

GDP growth accelerated to 3.5% year on year in the fourth quarter, from 2.5% in the third quarter. The print surprised markets on the upside and marked the strongest expansion since Q4 2022. The Nigerian economy grew 2.7% in 2023, down from 3.1% in 2022, but above the preceding 10-year average of 2.3%.

The improvement was spearheaded by a sharp rebound of the all-important oil sector: Output expanded 12.1% year on year in Q4 (Q3: -0.8% yoy). Additionally, growth in the non-oil sector of the economy rose to 3.1% in annual terms in Q4 (Q3: +2.7% yoy), on stronger manufacturing and agricultural momentum. Manufacturing sector growth improved to 1.4% in Q4, from the 0.5% increase recorded in the prior quarter. Moreover, the agricultural sector gained steam, growing 2.1% in Q4 (Q3: +1.3% yoy). Meanwhile, the services sector grew 4.0% annually in Q4, matching the third quarter's result. Less positively, construction sector growth eased to 3.7% in Q4 from 3.9% in Q3.

The economy is forecast to expand at a slightly faster pace in 2024 than in 2023. The oil sector will remain in the driver’s seat thanks to an improved security situation in the Niger Delta and ramped up output in the Dangote oil refinery. Nonetheless, higher interest rates and inflation, and a weaker naira year on year will restrain the overall improvement.

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Nigerian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 25 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Nigerian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Nigerian GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Nigerian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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