India

India GDP

India GDP

Economic Growth in India

India's GDP growth from 2013-2022 was among the fastest globally, driven by strong domestic consumption and services sector growth. Despite short-term disruptions caused by policy changes like demonetization and GST implementation, the economy maintained robust growth. The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted the economy in 2020, but India demonstrated a strong rebound in 2021-2022, aided by government stimulus and a gradual resumption of economic activities

The Indian economy recorded an average growth rate of 5.8% in the decade to 2022, above the 4.4% average for the Asia-Pacific region. In 2022, India's real GDP growth was 7.2%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

India GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for India from 2013 to 2022.
Source: MOSPI India.

India GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 6.5 3.9 -5.8 9.1 7.2
GDP (USD bn) 2,703 2,835 2,671 3,150 3,391
GDP (INR bn) 188,997 201,036 198,299 234,710 272,407
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 10.6 6.4 -1.4 18.4 16.1
Agriculture (ann. var. %) 2.1 6.2 4.1 3.5 4.0
Services (ann. var. %) 7.2 6.4 -8.2 8.8 9.5

GDP growth strongly exceeds expectations in July–September

GDP growth slowed slightly to 7.6% year on year in July–September, the second quarter of FY 2023 (April–June: +7.8 yoy). However, the print strongly exceeded market expectations.

Boosted by pre-election spending, government consumption rebounded, growing 12.4% in July–September (April–June: -0.7% yoy). Strong government outlays also helped lead fixed investment growth to accelerate to 11.0% in July–September, from the 8.0% expansion recorded in the prior quarter. Adding a further positive impulse, exports of goods and services rebounded, growing 4.3% in July–September (April–June: -7.7% yoy). That said, dragging on the expansion, household spending growth waned to 3.1% year-on-year in July–September compared to a 6.0% expansion in April–June. In addition, imports of goods and services—which detract from the external sector reading—grew at a faster rate of 16.7% in July–September (April–June: +10.1% yoy).

Our panelists expect GDP growth to slow in the coming quarters, remaining around 6.0% through to the end of 2024; past rate hikes by the Central Bank will weigh on domestic demand. That said, India will remain one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies, boosted by strong foreign investment and government spending.

Analysts at EIU said: “In the light of the latest data, we have revised our forecast for real GDP growth for 2023/24 from 6.5% to 6.7%.” Analysts at Nomura warned about interpreting data for the next quarter given the recent Diwali holiday: “The non-synchronous timing of Diwali this year (in November as opposed to October last year) means that most high frequency growth indicators will be elevated on a y-o-y basis in October, but will also record a sharp drop in November when the opposing effects kick in. Hence, the ‘true’ strength of growth tracking in Q4 is likely to be confirmed only when we have enough data to consider the average performance in the two months.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Indian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 44 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Indian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Indian GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Indian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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