Economic Growth in India
India's GDP growth from 2013-2022 was among the fastest globally, driven by strong domestic consumption and services sector growth. Despite short-term disruptions caused by policy changes like demonetization and GST implementation, the economy maintained robust growth. The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted the economy in 2020, but India demonstrated a strong rebound in 2021-2022, aided by government stimulus and a gradual resumption of economic activities
The Indian economy recorded an average growth rate of 5.8% in the decade to 2022, above the 4.4% average for the Asia-Pacific region. In 2022, India's real GDP growth was 7.2%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
India GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for India from 2013 to 2022.
Source: MOSPI India.
India GDP Data
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.5 | 3.9 | -5.8 | 9.1 | 7.2 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 2,703 | 2,835 | 2,671 | 3,150 | 3,391 |
| GDP (INR bn) | 188,997 | 201,036 | 198,299 | 234,710 | 272,407 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 10.6 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 18.4 | 16.1 |
| Agriculture (ann. var. %) | 2.1 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
| Services (ann. var. %) | 7.2 | 6.4 | -8.2 | 8.8 | 9.5 |
GDP growth at one-year high in April–June
GDP growth accelerated to 7.8% year on year in April–June 2023 (Q1 FY 2023), from 6.1% in January–March. April–June’s reading marked the best result in a year and matched market expectations. The acceleration was driven by private consumption, which increased 6.0% in April–June, above January–March’s 2.8% expansion. This more than offset government consumption sliding at a rate of 0.7% in April–June (January–March: +2.3% yoy). In addition, fixed investment fell 8.0% in April–June (January–March: +8.9% yoy), marking the worst reading since January–March 2022. Looking at the external front, exports of goods and services plunged at the steepest rate in over two years, falling 7.7% in April–June (January–March: +11.9% yoy). Conversely, imports of goods and services growth sped up to 10.1% in April–June (January–March: +4.9% yoy).
Our panelists expect GDP growth to slow in July–September but remain buoyant. Services activity continued to rise the most in over a decade in July and August, according to PMI data. ING’s Robert Carnell said: “At 7.8% YoY, India's GDP print for [April–June] was precisely in line with the consensus expectation but nonetheless, singles out India as one of the few economies in the region where growth is actually firming, not declining. Total calendar-year growth of 7% or close is within reach.” Goldman Sachs’ Santanu Sengupta and Andrew Tilton commented: “Going forward, in [July–September], we expect high inflation to squeeze real disposable income of households. Additionally, loss of income and property due to incessant rains and floods in the northern states of India is likely to keep consumption subdued in [January–September].”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Indian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 46 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Indian GDP.
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