Economic Growth in India
India's GDP growth from 2013-2022 was among the fastest globally, driven by strong domestic consumption and services sector growth. Despite short-term disruptions caused by policy changes like demonetization and GST implementation, the economy maintained robust growth. The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted the economy in 2020, but India demonstrated a strong rebound in 2021-2022, aided by government stimulus and a gradual resumption of economic activities
The Indian economy recorded an average growth rate of 5.8% in the decade to 2022, above the 4.4% average for the Asia-Pacific region. In 2022, India's real GDP growth was 7.2%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
India GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for India from 2013 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
India GDP Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.9 | -5.8 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 8.2 |
GDP (USD bn) | 2,835 | 2,674 | 3,167 | 3,355 | 3,568 |
GDP (INR bn) | 201,036 | 198,541 | 235,974 | 269,496 | 295,357 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.4 | -1.2 | 18.9 | 14.2 | 9.6 |
Agriculture (ann. var. %) | 6.2 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 |
Services (ann. var. %) | 6.4 | -8.4 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 7.6 |
GDP growth records slowest increase in a year in January–March
GDP growth waned to 7.8% year on year in January–March (October–December FY 2023) from 8.6% in October–December. January–March's reading marked the softest growth in a year but exceeded market expectations. The reading means GDP grew 8.2% over FY 2023 as a whole, up from FY 2022’s 7.0% and the 5.8% FY 2013–2022 average.
Private consumption growth was stable at 4.0% year on year in January–March compared to October–December. Government spending bounced back, growing 0.9% in January–March (October–December 2023: -3.2% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth fell to 6.5% in January–March, marking the worst reading in a year (October–December 2023: +9.7% yoy). On the external front, exports of goods and services growth accelerated to 8.1% year on year in the first quarter, which marked the best reading in a year (October–December 2023: +3.4% yoy). Conversely, imports of goods and services growth softened to 8.3% in January–March (October–December 2023: +8.7% yoy).
Aurodeep Nandi and Sonal Varma, research analysts at Nomura, said: “In the near term, the absence of broad-based private consumption and capex recovery, ebbing terms-of-trade tailwinds for firms and macroprudential tightening by the RBI are potential drags. However, structural positives include the strong focus on public capex (assuming political continuity at the Centre), continued reforms momentum, prioritisation of macro stability, favourable demographics and opportunities from friendshoring. We revise up our FY25 GDP growth to 6.9% (vs our previous estimate of 6.6%).”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Indian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 47 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Indian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Indian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Indian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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