A big building in Bulgaria

Bulgaria Private consumption

Bulgaria Private consumption

Private Consumption in Bulgaria

Over the past decade until 2022, Bulgaria's economy recorded an average growth rate in private consumption of 2.6%, above the Eastern Europe average of 2.1%. In 2022, Bulgaria's private consumption growth was 3.8%. For more private consumption information, visit our dedicated page.

Bulgaria Private consumption Chart

Note: This chart displays Private Consumption (annual variation in %) for Bulgaria from 2018 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.

Bulgaria Private consumption Data

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 5.9 -0.5 8.4 3.8 5.4

GDP growth ticks up slightly in Q1 2024

According to a second release, GDP growth gathered pace to 1.8% year on year in the first quarter of 2024 from 1.7% in the fourth quarter of last year. Q1's reading marked the best result since Q2 2023 and exceeded the preliminary estimate of a 1.7% rise. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth slowed to 0.4% in Q1 from the previous quarter's 0.5% growth.

The improvement was fueled by domestic demand. Private consumption increased 3.9% in the first quarter (Q4 2023: +3.4% yoy), supported by the lowest average inflation in nearly three years and accelerating wage growth. Moreover, growth in public consumption improved to 1.4% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +0.6% yoy). In addition, fixed investment growth accelerated to 7.9% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +4.7% yoy). On the external front, exports of goods and services declined 2.1% year on year in Q1, unchanged from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services dropped at a softer rate of 3.7% in Q1 (Q4 2023: -4.5% yoy), marking the best reading since Q1 2023.

Looking ahead, GDP growth is set to gradually accelerate during the remainder of 2024, bringing full-year growth comfortably above 2023’s rate. Investment and public spending will remain the key engines of growth, while exports are expected to stage a recovery later in the year. Renewed political instability and sticky inflation are downside risks, while stronger-than-expected EU demand is an upside risk.

EIU analysts commented on the outlook: “We continue to forecast Bulgarian growth of 2.2% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025. We may revise up our headline growth forecasts for 2024-25 depending on the policy priorities of the next government. We expect a new centre-right Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB)-led coalition to be formed, but there is still a risk that coalition negotiations will fail and another snap election be called.” UniCredit analyst Kristofor Pavlov said: “We now expect stronger private consumption growth this year, on the back of a more pronounced acceleration of real wage growth and household credit growth than we anticipated three months ago. The latter would be offset by a weaker positive contribution to growth from investment. We think political uncertainty will weigh on private sector investment and will delay the implementation of structural measures needed to push through the absorption of EU funds from the country’s RRP.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Bulgarian private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 12 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Bulgarian private consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Bulgarian private consumption projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Bulgarian private consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

Latest Global GDP News

Free sample report

Interested in economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest