A big building in Bulgaria

Bulgaria Private consumption

Bulgaria Private consumption

Private Consumption in Bulgaria

Over the past decade until 2022, Bulgaria's economy recorded an average growth rate in private consumption of 2.6%, above the Eastern Europe average of 2.1%. In 2022, Bulgaria's private consumption growth was 3.8%. For more private consumption information, visit our dedicated page.

Bulgaria Private consumption Chart

Note: This chart displays Private Consumption (annual variation in %) for Bulgaria from 2013 to 2022.
Source: National Statistical Institute, Bulgaria.

Bulgaria Private consumption Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.6 5.9 -0.5 8.4 3.8

GDP growth easesd to three-year low in Q4

GDP growth waned to 1.6% year on year on a seasonally adjusted basis in the fourth quarter, from 1.8% in the third quarter. Q4's reading marked the softest expansion in three years. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth inched up to 0.5% in Q4 (Q3: +0.4% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, full-year GDP rose by 1.6% in 2023, down from 2022’s 2.7% rise. Barring 2020’s downturn brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic, 2023 marked the lowest growth rate since 2013.

Preliminary data showed that the annual moderation was driven by softening domestic demand: Final consumption expanded by 3.1% in the quarter, moderating from Q3’s 4.2% rise, while fixed investment growth slowed to 4.2% (Q3: +9.7%). Meanwhile, the headwinds to the external sector persisted at the end of 2023, with exports of goods and services shrinking 1.0% year on year in Q4 (Q3: -3.1% yoy). Imports of goods and services fell at a milder rate of 5.4%, from Q3’s 6.9% drop.

2024 should see GDP growth strengthen from last year’s moderation. Disinflation and social transfers should support private spending, Iwhile inflows of EU funds should boost investment. Additionally, recovering activity in the broader EU economy should bring forth a rebound in exports. Less positively, an elevated unemployment rate and still-tight monetary conditions in the Euro area will cap activityheadline GDP growth. Weaker-than-expected external demand, delayed absorption of EU funds and potential political instability pose downside risks.

Analysts at UniCredit commented on the outlook: “Real GDP growth is likely to accelerate in 2024 on the back of improved absorption of EU funds, which will boost investment, and a tight labor market, which will help solid wage growth push private consumption. Euro adoption remains a key priority that will shape policymaking in the forecast period.” Valentin Tataru, analyst at ING, said: “2024 should be the year of public investments boom, as the country expects at least one (though more likely two) disbursements from the Recovery and Resilience Facility. […] All in all, we expect improvements in private consumption and government spending to accelerate GDP growth towards the pre-pandemic trend.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Bulgarian private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 13 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Bulgarian private consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Bulgarian private consumption projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Bulgarian private consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

Latest Global GDP News

Free sample report

Interested in economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest