Bulgaria Government Consumption

Economic growth picks up in the first quarter of 2026

GDP reading: Bulgaria's GDP grew 3.1% on a working-day and seasonally adjusted year-on-year basis in Q1, following 2.9% growth in the previous quarter. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP expanded 0.7% in Q1, following 0.8% growth in the prior quarter.

Drivers: Compared with the previous quarter's data, the reading for private consumption improved in Q1 (+9.4% in seasonally adjusted year-on-year terms vs +9.0% in Q4). In contrast, readings worsened for government consumption (+3.2% vs +7.1% in Q4), fixed investment (+9.1% vs +12.1% in Q4), exports of goods and services (-7.4% vs -0.7% in Q4) and imports of goods and services (+8.2% vs +11.1% in Q4).

Panelist insight: EIU analysts commented on the outlook: “Bulgaria recorded one of the strongest growth rates in the EU in the first quarter, and the economy is expected to remain among the bloc's top performers in 2026-30, supported by solid real wage gains and rising investment. […] Private consumption is expected to remain the main driver of growth, underpinned by continued real wage gains and strong credit expansion. We also expect the new government to accelerate reforms aimed at unlocking additional EU funding.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Bulgarian government consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 10 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable government consumption forecast available for Bulgarian government consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Bulgarian government consumption projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Bulgarian government consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.