Serbia Investment

Economic growth increases in the first quarter of 2026

GDP growth accelerates: According to a second release, Serbia's GDP expanded by an upwardly revised 3.2% in annual terms in Q1, following a 2.2% expansion in the prior quarter. Q1's reading was the strongest since Q4 2024. That said, on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew 0.2% in Q1, following 1.0% growth in the prior quarter.

Household consumption leads the upturn: Compared with the previous period's data, readings in Q1 improved for private consumption (+4.8% on a year-on-year basis vs +3.7% in Q4) and government consumption (+5.1% vs +4.1% in Q4). In contrast, readings softened for fixed investment (+1.4% vs +8.9% in Q4), exports of goods and services (+4.6% vs +5.4% in Q4) and imports of goods and services (+3.6% vs +7.6% in Q4). Household spending powered economic growth, prolonging its year-long acceleration trend amid January’s minimum wage hike, robust wage growth and a still-tight labor market. Moreover, government consumption picked up further, as presidential and parliamentary elections are set for May and December 2027, respectively, though snap general elections this year are a strong possibility. Still, fixed investment growth slowed sharply, likely reflecting uncertainty over U.S. sanctions and the sale of Russian-owned oil company NIS.

Panelist insight: Erste Group’s Mate Jelic said: “Serbia’s growth outlook remains anchored in domestic demand, with private consumption now firmly in the lead. Household spending continues to benefit from solid wage dynamics, a tight labour market and firm credit growth. While recognizing that the energy-driven lift in headline inflation will compress real incomes and should cool the pace in 2H26, wage growth is also stronger than forecasted thus offsetting the inflation impact. Large public-infrastructure projects and Expo 2027 linked construction will support investment, with energy and transport projects adding momentum. […] Bottom line, we have upgraded our expectations for FY26 real GDP growth.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Serbian investment projections for the next ten years from a panel of 12 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable investment forecast available for Serbian investment.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Serbian investment projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Serbian investment forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.