Serbian town in the winter

Serbia Private consumption

Serbia Private consumption

Private Consumption in Serbia

The Serbian economy recorded an average growth rate of 1.8% in private consumption over the decade to 2022, below the 2.1% average for Eastern Europe. In 2022, private consumption growth was 3.7%. For more private consumption information, visit our dedicated page.

Serbia Private consumption Chart

Note: This chart displays Private Consumption (annual variation in %) for Serbia from 2020 to 2016.
Source: Macrobond.

Serbia Private consumption Data

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.6 -2.0 7.6 3.5 0.6

GDP grows at softest pace in over a year in Q3 2024

Economic growth decelerates: A second release confirmed that GDP growth lost steam, falling to 3.1% year on year in the third quarter from 4.2% in the second quarter and marking the worst reading since Q2 2023. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth slowed to 0.5% in Q3 from the previous period's 0.9% growth, marking the joint-worst result in two years.

Spending and external sector drive the deterioration: Private consumption increased 3.9% in the third quarter, which was below the second quarter's 4.7% expansion. Moreover, government spending growth was the slowest in a year, expanding 2.6% (Q2: +4.6% yoy). On the flip side, fixed investment growth picked up to 9.1% in Q3, following the 7.8% expansion recorded in the prior quarter, likely aided by the start of ECB monetary policy easing in June. Meanwhile, the external sector detracted more from the headline reading than in Q2. Exports of goods and services increased 3.2% on an annual basis in the third quarter, which was below the second quarter's 4.6% expansion. Conversely, imports of goods and services growth sped up to 14.4% in Q3 (Q2: +8.4% yoy).

Growth to strengthen slightly ahead: Our panelists expect the economy to gain some traction in Q4 and expand at a slightly faster clip overall in 2025 compared to 2024, aided by the ongoing monetary policy easing cycle, moderating price pressures and healthier external demand.

Panelist insight: Mate Jelic, analyst at Erste Bank, commented: “Serbia’s strong economic momentum with growth rates around 4% y/y appears sustainable in the medium term. Growth is domestically driven, with robust labour market and real wage gains supporting household consumption and public investment cycle underpinning overall investment activity.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Serbian private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 13 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Serbian private consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Serbian private consumption projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Serbian private consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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