Underlying picture less positive than headline reading: GDP growth improved to 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis...
Economic Growth in Serbia
The Serbian economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.6% in the decade to 2022, slightly above the 2.5% average for Eastern Europe. In 2022, Serbia's real GDP growth was 2.3%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Serbia GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Serbia from 2024 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Serbia GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.0 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 55.9 | 66.1 | 66.8 | 81.3 | 89.0 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 49.0 | 55.9 | 63.5 | 75.2 | 82.3 |
| GDP (RSD bn) | 5,764 | 6,576 | 7,459 | 8,818 | 9,639 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.7 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 18.2 | 9.3 |
GDP growth records slowest increase since Q4 2022 in Q1
GDP reading below expectations: According to a flash estimate, economic growth softened markedly in the first quarter, with GDP expanding 2.0% year on year (Q4 2024: +3.3 yoy). The figure surprised markets on the downside and marked the worst reading since Q4 2022.
Subdued domestic demand likely hampers growth: The release did not include a comprehensive breakdown, but monthly data suggests that domestic demand cooled, while the external sector likely continued to hamper growth; both retail sales and industrial output lost steam in the quarter, and the trade balance remained in the red. Moreover, persistent anti-government protests throughout the period and the government’s collapse likely dented momentum further. A detailed breakdown is set to be published on 2 June.
Panelist insight: Mate Jelic, analyst at Erste Bank, commented: “Looking ahead, the outlook has deteriorated in recent months. Student-led protests led to the collapse of the previous government. Although a new administration has recently taken office, valuable time and economic momentum have already been lost. Meanwhile, protests are ongoing, adding to political instability. On the external front, the global geopolitical environment remains highly uncertain, largely due to unpredictable developments under the new U.S. administration.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Serbian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 24 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Serbian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Serbian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Serbian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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