Serbian town in the winter

Serbia GDP

Serbia GDP

Economic Growth in Serbia

The Serbian economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.6% in the decade to 2022, slightly above the 2.5% average for Eastern Europe. In 2022, Serbia's real GDP growth was 2.3%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Serbia GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Serbia from 2013 to 2022.
Source: Statistical Office Serbia.

Serbia GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.5 4.3 -0.9 7.7 2.5
GDP (USD bn) 50.6 51.5 53.4 63.1 63.5
GDP (EUR bn) 42.9 46.0 46.8 53.3 60.4
GDP (RSD bn) 5,073 5,422 5,504 6,272 7,098
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.6 6.9 1.5 13.9 13.2

Robust domestic demand buoys GDP growth in Q3

GDP growth picked up to 3.6% year on year in the third quarter from 1.6% in the second quarter. The print was slightly above the 3.5% flash estimate, which had surprised markets on the upside. Q3's reading marked the best result since Q2 2022. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth was unchanged from Q2’s 1.3% in Q3.

The improvement was solely driven by stronger domestic demand. Lower inflation and unemployment contributed to a rebound in household spending, which increased 1.3% in the third quarter, contrasting the second quarter's 0.5% contraction. Moreover, government consumption also rebounded, growing 1.7% in Q3 (Q2: -1.6% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth improved slightly to 4.1% in Q3 from 3.9% in the prior quarter. On the flip side, the contribution of the external sector deteriorated. Exports of goods and services fell 1.5% on an annual basis in the third quarter, which contrasted with the second quarter's 2.4% expansion. Conversely, imports of goods and services contracted at a more moderate pace of 1.2% in Q3 (Q2: -5.5% yoy).

Our panel sees the economy maintaining its momentum in Q4 and going into 2024. Domestic demand is set to remain the main engine of growth next year as inflation and the unemployment rate decline relative to 2023. Moreover, as price pressures cool, the Central Bank is expected to start reducing interest rates, which will provide a further boost. That said, risks are skewed to the downside and include the escalation of tensions with Kosovo and potential EU sanctions.

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Serbian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 24 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Serbian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Serbian GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Serbian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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