Government Consumption in Russia
The economy of Russia recorded an average growth rate of 0.9% in government consumption in the decade to 2022. In 2022, government consumption growth was 2.8%.
Russia Government Consumption Chart
Note: This chart displays Government Consumption (ann. var. %) for Russia from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Russia Government Consumption Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 7.0 |
Economy gains momentum in the first quarter
Economy gains momentum in the first quarter
A second national accounts release confirmed that the economy gained steam in the first quarter, expanding 5.4% year on year. Q1’s result was above the 4.9% increase logged in the fourth quarter of last year and beat market expectations. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth ticked up to 1.0% in Q1 from the previous quarter's 0.8% expansion.
A second national accounts release confirmed that the economy gained steam in the first quarter, expanding 5.4% year on year. Q1’s result was above the 4.9% increase logged in the fourth quarter of last year and beat market expectations. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth ticked up to 1.0% in Q1 from the previous quarter's 0.8% expansion.
From a production point of view, the upturn chiefly reflected a robust industrial sector performance. Mining and quarrying rebounded in the quarter and rose at a two-year high of 1.4% year on year (Q4 2023: -1.5% yoy), while manufacturing output growth accelerated to 9.0% from the prior quarter’s 7.2%. In addition, agriculture returned to growth, expanding 0.5% in January–March (Q4 2023: -4.9% yoy). That said, services sector output cooled: The public administration and defense sector swung into a 1.6% contraction in Q1 (Q4 2023: 4.1% yoy), while wholesale and retail trade growth slowed to 11.4% in the first quarter from 13.5% in the three months to December. Absent a breakdown by expenditure, surging inflation and tight financing conditions likely dragged on domestic demand. On the external front, the annual downturn in merchandise exports softened to a six-quarter low, contrasting a double-digit fall in goods imports and suggesting a recovering external sector performance.
From a production point of view, the upturn chiefly reflected a robust industrial sector performance. Mining and quarrying rebounded in the quarter and rose at a two-year high of 1.4% year on year (Q4 2023: -1.5% yoy), while manufacturing output growth accelerated to 9.0% from the prior quarter’s 7.2%. In addition, agriculture returned to growth, expanding 0.5% in January–March (Q4 2023: -4.9% yoy). That said, services sector output cooled: The public administration and defense sector swung into a 1.6% contraction in Q1 (Q4 2023: 4.1% yoy), while wholesale and retail trade growth slowed to 11.4% in the first quarter from 13.5% in the three months to December. Absent a breakdown by expenditure, surging inflation and tight financing conditions likely dragged on domestic demand. On the external front, the annual downturn in merchandise exports softened to a six-quarter low, contrasting a double-digit fall in goods imports and suggesting a recovering external sector performance.
Our panelists expect annual growth to have slowed significantly in the second quarter. Moreover, our Consensus is for GDP growth to cool in 2024 as a whole from 2023. The fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will continue to weigh on activity, outweighing a shallow rebound in exports. That said, economic activity growth will still roughly align with the Central Bank’s estimate of 2.5–3.5%.
Our panelists expect annual growth to have slowed significantly in the second quarter. Moreover, our Consensus is for GDP growth to cool in 2024 as a whole from 2023. The fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will continue to weigh on activity, outweighing a shallow rebound in exports. That said, economic activity growth will still roughly align with the Central Bank’s estimate of 2.5–3.5%.
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Russian government consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 17 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable government consumption forecast available for Russian government consumption.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Russian government consumption projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Russian government consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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