Private Consumption in Guatemala
The economy of Guatemala recorded an average growth rate of 1.5% in the decade leading to 2022. In 2022, private consumption growth was 4.2%. For more private consumption information, visit our dedicated page.
Guatemala Private consumption Chart
Note: This chart displays Private Consumption (annual variation in %) for Guatemala from 2015 to 2014.
Source: Macrobond.
Guatemala Private consumption Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 4.7 | -1.6 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
GDP grows at the slowest clip in over three years in Q4
GDP growth halved to 2.0% year on year at the tail-end of 2023 from an upwardly revised 4.0% in the third quarter. Q4's reading marked the softest growth since Q3 2020. As a result, economic momentum slowed overall in 2023 to 3.5% (2022: +4.2%).
Looking at available data, Q4’s moderation was broad-based. Private consumption growth ebbed to 4.7% in Q4 (Q3: +5.0% yoy), and fixed investment rose by 6.2% in the quarter, cooling from Q3’s whopping 10.4% expansion—over three-year low remittance inflow growth dented household budgets. Meanwhile, public spending swung into contraction, falling 9.5% year on year (Q3: +1.3% yoy), which was the largest decline in nearly 20 years. On the external front, exports of goods and services contracted at a faster 5.3% in Q4 (Q3: -2.1% yoy). Meanwhile, imports of goods and services rose at a two-year high pace of 11.3%, following Q3’s 8.1% increase.
Economic growth is seen dipping below 2023’s rate in 2024 as domestic demand decelerates: Our Consensus is for weaker private consumption growth and near-flat government spending. A rebound in exports should support momentum, however. The outlook for Guatemala’s economy continues to hinge on the strength of the U.S. labor market.
Analysts at the EIU commented on the outlook: “We expect local GDP growth to slow in 2024 as a tighter US labour market causes remittances flows to Guatemala to soften, resulting in slightly weaker private consumption.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Guatemalan private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 8 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Guatemalan private consumption.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Guatemalan private consumption projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Guatemalan private consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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