Colorful city in Guatemala

Guatemala Interest Rate

Guatemala Interest Rate

Policy Interest Rate in Guatemala

The Policy Interest Rate ended 2022 at 3.75%, up from the 1.75% end-2021 value and down from the reading of 5.00% a decade earlier. For reference, the average policy rate in Central America and Caribbean was 6.40% at end-2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.

Guatemala Interest Rate Chart

Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Guatemala from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Banco de Guatemala.

Guatemala Interest Rate Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 2.75 2.75 1.75 1.75 3.75

Banguat holds rates stable once again in April

On 24 April, the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) unanimously decided to keep the key policy rate at 5.00%, marking the eighth consecutive hold since May 2023.

The Bank opted to maintain its key policy rate unchanged for three main reasons. Firstly, inflation has continued to decline, inching closer to the floor of the Bank’s target range of 3.0–5.0% in March. Secondly, the authority’s most recent forecasts for both inflation and inflation expectations in 2024–2025 remained within target; the Bank attributed the current disinflationary trend to a still-tight monetary policy backdrop as well as receding imported price pressures. Thirdly, Banguat noted that short-term indicators through the three months to March aligned with its growth forecast of 3.5% and 3.6% for 2024 and 2025, respectively.

In its communiqué, Banguat did not include explicit forward guidance. That said, the Bank once again highlighted its commitment to anchor inflation within its target range. Our panelists expect Banguat to embark on an easing cycle this year and have penciled in between 25–150 basis points of cuts by year-end. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 29 May.

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Guatemalan interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 5 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Guatemalan interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Guatemalan interest rate projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Guatemalan interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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