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Policy Interest Rate in Guatemala
The Policy Interest Rate ended 2022 at 3.75%, up from the 1.75% end-2021 value and down from the reading of 5.00% a decade earlier. For reference, the average policy rate in Central America and Caribbean was 6.40% at end-2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Guatemala Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Guatemala from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Guatemala Interest Rate Data
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
Banguat stands pat for tenth successive meeting in June
On 26 June, the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) unanimously decided to keep the key policy rate at 5.00%, marking the tenth consecutive hold since May 2023.
The Bank determined that the currently tight monetary policy backdrop is congruent with inflation remaining within its 3.0–5.0% target range in 2024–2025; price pressures rose to 3.8% in May but remained below the mid-point of the Bank’s target range. Moreover, Banguat highlighted that inflation expectations continue to fall within its target band. Regarding activity, the Bank noted that most short-term indicators aligned with its GDP growth forecasts of 3.5% and 3.7% for 2024 and 2025, respectively, giving it more scope to keep interest rates elevated.
In its communiqué, Banguat did not include explicit forward guidance but once again highlighted its commitment to anchor inflation and inflation expectations within its target range. Our panelists expect Banguat to embark on a monetary policy easing cycle later this year and have penciled in around 75 basis points of cuts by year-end. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 28 August.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Guatemalan interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 7 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Guatemalan interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Guatemalan interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Guatemalan interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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