Economic Growth in Guatemala
The Guatemalan economy recorded an average growth rate of 3.6% in the decade to 2022, above the 1.9% average for Central America and Caribbean. In 2022, real GDP growth was 4.1%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Guatemala GDP Chart
Guatemala GDP Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.0 | -1.8 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 3.5 |
GDP (USD bn) | 77.2 | 77.7 | 86.5 | 95.6 | 104.4 |
GDP (GTQ bn) | 594 | 600 | 669 | 741 | 818 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 7.7 | 1.0 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 10.4 |
GDP growth accelerated in Q2
Economy posts near one-year high expansion: The economy kept its foot on the gas in the second quarter, expanding 3.7% year on year compared to 3.2% in the first quarter. Q2’s reading marked the best result since Q3 2023.
Fixed investment and exports fuel acceleration: Domestically, the upturn was chiefly underpinned by a faster increase in fixed investment, which clocked 5.8% year on year in Q2, above Q1’s 2.7% expansion. Less positively, household spending growth slowed to 5.5% in Q2 (Q1: +6.4% yoy). Moreover, public consumption contracted at a quicker rate of 4.6% in Q2 (Q1: -1.9% yoy). On the external front, exports of goods and services bounced back, growing 4.9% in Q2 (Q1: -3.5% yoy). Conversely, growth in imports of goods and services moderated to 10.0% in Q2 (Q1: +13.7% yoy). As a result, net trade contributed positively to economic growth.
Stable growth ahead, though risks are tilted to the upside: Our panelists expect economic growth to average around Q2 levels in H2, as slower private spending growth largely offsets a recovery in public spending plus faster expansions in fixed investment and exports of goods and services. That said, available data hints at upside risk to this projection, as slower price pressures and stronger growth in remittances inflows in Q3 likely supported household budgets at the outset of H2. Our Consensus is for the economy to expand at a similar clip to 2023 in both 2024 and 2025. Faster-than-expected growth in the U.S.—a key source of remittances—is an upside risk.
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Guatemalan GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 19 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Guatemalan GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Guatemalan GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Guatemalan GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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